You are here: Social Security Administration > Research, Statistics & Policy Analysis > Policy Option Projections
Policy Option Projections
(released May 2024)
For each retirement policy option/proposal below, a set of tables covers the proposal's projected effects on—
- Social Security benefits in 2030, 2050, and 2070
- Social Security taxes paid in 2030, 2050, and 2070
- Household income in 2030, 2050, and 2070
- Poverty status in 2030, 2050, and 2070
- Benefit/tax ratios for selected birth cohorts
- Replacement rates for selected birth cohorts
Policy option/proposalAvailable formats
Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Changes
Increase the COLA
Base it on the CPI for the elderly (CPI-E)
Reduce the COLA
Base it on the Chained CPI
Coverage Changes
Cover all newly hired state and local workers
Family Benefit Changes
Create an alternative survivor benefit
Survivor receives the higher of the current-law benefit or an alternative benefit of 75% of the survivor's own benefit plus the deceased worker's PIA
Reduce marriage duration requirement for divorced spousal benefits
Allow divorced spouses who were married at least 5 years to receive reduced benefits
Reduce spousal benefits
From 50% to 33% of the worker's PIA
Retirement Age Changes
Increase the EEA and FRA
One month every 2 years
Increase the FRA
One month every 2 years
Increase the FRA to 68
One month every 2 years
Social Security Payroll Tax Changes
Count all earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations
Count 90% of earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations; phase in 2024–2033
Increase payroll tax rate
From 12.4% to 16.2% in 2034 and then to 20.0% in 2064
Worker Benefit Changes
Credit earnings to caregivers' records
Up to 5 years at one-half average wage when caring for children under age 6
Eliminate the retirement earnings test
For all beneficiaries under FRA
Increase benefits for older beneficiaries
PIA increase is phased-in starting at 81 and by 85 is 5% of the average retired-worker PIA in the year the beneficiary turns 80
Increase the computation period
From 35 years to 40 years; phase in 2024–2032 (does not apply to Disability Insurance)
Index PIA factors to longevity
Multiply factors by the ratio of life expectancy at 67 in 2028 to the life expectancy at age 67 in the 4th year prior to the year of initial benefit eligibility
Price index the PIA formula for earners above the 30th percentile
Reconfigure the minimum benefit
For workers with 10 to 30 years of coverage (YOC = 4 quarters earned that year) set PIA up to 125% of the monthly poverty level