You are here: Social Security Administration > Research, Statistics & Policy Analysis > Program Explainer: Why Will Poverty Decline for Social Security Beneficiaries Aged 60 and Older?
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Why Will Poverty Decline for Social Security Beneficiaries Aged 60 and Older?
Released: May 2024Next expected update: 2028
- Income rises with wages, while the poverty threshold a is indexed to prices.
- Social Security benefits, which account for a large portion of beneficiaries' income, are based on the highest 35 years of wage-indexed earnings.
- Over time, wage growth is projected to outpace price growth, lifting beneficiaries over the poverty threshold.
SOURCES: Modeling Income in the Near Term, Version 8 (MINT8) microsimulation model using 2023 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions. The 2023 Trustees Report projects tax rates will be sufficient to pay 70–80 percent of scheduled benefits after trust fund reserve depletion in 2034, often referred to as payable benefits.
Show as table
| Year | Under scheduled benefits | Under payable benefits |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| 2025 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| 2026 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| 2027 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| 2028 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| 2029 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| 2030 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| 2031 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| 2032 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| 2033 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| 2034 | 5.0 | 8.1 |
| 2035 | 5.0 | 8.4 |
| 2036 | 4.8 | 8.4 |
| 2037 | 4.7 | 8.4 |
| 2038 | 4.8 | 8.4 |
| 2039 | 4.9 | 8.6 |
| 2040 | 4.8 | 8.6 |
| 2041 | 4.7 | 8.6 |
| 2042 | 4.8 | 8.8 |
| 2043 | 4.8 | 8.9 |
| 2044 | 4.8 | 9.0 |
| 2045 | 4.7 | 8.9 |
| 2046 | 4.8 | 9.0 |
| 2047 | 4.8 | 8.9 |
| 2048 | 4.6 | 8.7 |
| 2049 | 4.6 | 8.8 |
| 2050 | 4.6 | 8.7 |
| 2051 | 4.5 | 8.5 |
| 2052 | 4.5 | 8.5 |
| 2053 | 4.4 | 8.4 |
| 2054 | 4.3 | 8.3 |
| 2055 | 4.3 | 8.3 |
| 2056 | 4.1 | 8.1 |
| 2057 | 4.1 | 8.1 |
| 2058 | 4.1 | 8.1 |
| 2059 | 4.0 | 8.1 |
| 2060 | 3.9 | 8.0 |
| 2061 | 3.7 | 7.9 |
| 2062 | 3.6 | 7.8 |
| 2063 | 3.6 | 7.7 |
| 2064 | 3.5 | 7.5 |
| 2065 | 3.3 | 7.4 |
| 2066 | 3.3 | 7.5 |
| 2067 | 3.3 | 7.4 |
| 2068 | 3.1 | 7.2 |
| 2069 | 3.1 | 7.3 |
| 2070 | 3.1 | 7.1 |
| 2071 | 3.0 | 7.0 |
| 2072 | 2.9 | 6.9 |
| 2073 | 2.8 | 6.8 |
| 2074 | 2.7 | 6.6 |
| 2075 | 2.7 | 6.5 |
| 2076 | 2.6 | 6.3 |
| 2077 | 2.6 | 6.2 |
| 2078 | 2.5 | 6.0 |
| 2079 | 2.4 | 6.0 |
| 2080 | 2.4 | 5.8 |
| 2081 | 2.4 | 5.5 |
| 2082 | 2.4 | 5.4 |
| 2083 | 2.3 | 5.3 |
| 2084 | 2.2 | 5.0 |
| 2085 | 2.2 | 4.8 |
| 2086 | 2.1 | 4.7 |
| 2087 | 2.1 | 4.5 |
| 2088 | 2.1 | 4.4 |
| 2089 | 2.0 | 4.2 |
| 2090 | 2.0 | 4.1 |
| 2091 | 1.9 | 3.9 |
| 2092 | 1.8 | 3.7 |
| 2093 | 1.8 | 3.6 |
| 2094 | 1.7 | 3.5 |
| 2095 | 1.7 | 3.4 |
SOURCE: Based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Wage Index (AWI) assumptions from the 2023 Trustees Report.
NOTE: The AWI is used to project changes in the average wage and the wage-indexed poverty threshold while
the CPI is used for price-indexed average wage and poverty threshold projections.
the CPI is used for price-indexed average wage and poverty threshold projections.
Show as table
| Year | Average wage | Price-indexed average wage | Poverty threshold | Wage-indexed poverty threshold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 68,628 | 68,628 | 14,967 | 14,967 |
| 2025 | 71,412 | 70,000 | 15,326 | 15,599 |
| 2026 | 74,348 | 72,059 | 15,694 | 16,184 |
| 2027 | 77,394 | 73,432 | 16,071 | 16,841 |
| 2028 | 80,511 | 75,490 | 16,456 | 17,534 |
| 2029 | 83,757 | 77,549 | 16,852 | 18,252 |
| 2030 | 87,106 | 78,922 | 17,256 | 18,987 |
| 2031 | 90,574 | 80,981 | 17,669 | 19,753 |
| 2032 | 93,995 | 83,039 | 18,094 | 20,543 |
| 2033 | 97,455 | 85,098 | 18,528 | 21,361 |
| 2034 | 101,027 | 87,157 | 18,973 | 22,168 |
| 2035 | 104,726 | 89,216 | 19,428 | 22,984 |
a. U.S. Census Bureau, Poverty Thresholds by Size of Family and Number of Children. The poverty threshold is for one person, aged 65 years or older.