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Projections by Demographic Group

  1. Beneficiary
    Race/Ethnicity
  2. Lifetime
    Low Earners
  3.  Oldest 
    Old
  4. Sporadic Low
    Earners
  5. Taxpayer
    Race/Ethnicity

The Oldest Old in 2050

Methodology »
Released: May 2024
Next expected update: 2028

DEFINITION: The oldest old are beneficiaries aged 85 or older in a given year. Projections for beneficiaries aged 60 or older are provided for comparison.

In 2050, we project that:

  • The oldest old will include more women and widows, but fewer disabled, than those aged 60 or older.
  • The median benefit amount will be higher for the oldest old than for those aged 60 or older.
  • The poverty rate will be lower for the oldest old compared with those aged 60 or older.
Chart. Title: Population Characteristics: Percentage with characteristic. Pie chart series with tabular version below.
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Table equivalent for chart: Population Characteristics
Characteristic Beneficiaries aged 60 or older Beneficiaries aged 85 or older
Number of beneficiaries 83 million 17 million
Women 54% 59%
Race or ethnicity  
White 63% 74%
Black 11% 8%
All other races 8% 7%
Hispanic origin 18% 10%
Ever disabled 12% 4%
Widowed 18% 38%
Chart. Title: Median Benefit Amount: In 2024 dollars. Bar chart with tabular version below.
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Table equivalent for chart: Median Benefit Amount (in 2024 dollars)
Under– Beneficiaries aged 60 or older Beneficiaries aged 85 or older
Scheduled benefits 2,211 2,341
Payable benefits 1,704 1,805
Chart. Title: Poverty Rate: Percentage below 100% of poverty. Bar chart with tabular version below.
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Table equivalent for chart: Poverty Rate (percentage below 100% of poverty)
Under— Beneficiaries aged 60 or older Beneficiaries aged 85 or older
Scheduled benefits 4.6 3.1
Payable benefits 8.7 7.3

SOURCE: Modeling Income in the Near Term, Version 8 (MINT8) microsimulation model using 2023 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions.