|
Low Yield Scenario—1/2 Contribution To IA through 2015
General Fund Tranfers for spending cut thru 2016 IA Contribution 6.4%, Benefit Offset 100.0%, IA Participation 100.0 % With Ultimate Real Trust Fund Interest Rate of 3.0 With Ultimate Real IA Yield Rate of 2.75 With Annuity Net Yield Rate of 2.75 CorporateTax toTrust Fund as Percent of Pre-tax IA Yield 23.9 |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Year
|
Cost
Rate |
Income
Rate1 |
Annual
Balance |
TFR
1-1-yr |
(Percent of
Payroll) |
Change
in OASDI Effective Contribution Rate |
Cut in
Contribution Rate for Annual Balance |
IA
Contribution Rate— Redirected from Payroll Tax |
|
|
2004
|
11.07
|
12.71
|
1.64
|
306
|
12.40
|
0
|
|||
|
2005
|
10.87
|
12.73
|
1.86
|
325
|
12.40
|
0
|
|||
|
2006
|
10.77
|
10.43
|
-0.34
|
347
|
0.28
|
-2.58
|
9.82
|
2.58
|
|
|
2007
|
10.75
|
10.78
|
0.03
|
346
|
0.81
|
-0.20
|
9.62
|
2.78
|
|
|
2008
|
10.80
|
11.29
|
0.49
|
346
|
1.33
|
-0.05
|
9.57
|
2.83
|
|
|
2009
|
10.95
|
11.75
|
0.81
|
347
|
1.86
|
-0.05
|
9.52
|
2.88
|
|
|
2010
|
11.08
|
12.25
|
1.17
|
352
|
2.38
|
-0.05
|
9.47
|
2.93
|
|
|
2011
|
11.25
|
12.79
|
1.54
|
360
|
2.91
|
-0.04
|
9.43
|
2.97
|
|
|
2012
|
11.50
|
13.30
|
1.80
|
369
|
3.43
|
-0.04
|
9.39
|
3.01
|
|
|
2013
|
11.78
|
13.82
|
2.05
|
380
|
3.96
|
-0.03
|
9.35
|
3.05
|
|
|
2014
|
12.04
|
14.33
|
2.29
|
392
|
4.48
|
-0.03
|
9.32
|
3.08
|
|
|
2015
|
12.33
|
14.84
|
2.51
|
406
|
4.99
|
-0.02
|
9.30
|
3.10
|
|
|
2016
|
12.63
|
12.26
|
-0.37
|
421
|
5.53
|
-3.14
|
6.16
|
6.24
|
|
|
2017
|
12.93
|
12.31
|
-0.62
|
413
|
5.61
|
-0.03
|
6.13
|
6.27
|
|
|
2018
|
13.23
|
12.38
|
-0.85
|
405
|
5.68
|
-0.03
|
6.10
|
6.30
|
|
|
2019
|
13.53
|
12.45
|
-1.08
|
396
|
5.75
|
-0.02
|
6.08
|
6.32
|
|
|
2020
|
13.83
|
12.52
|
-1.31
|
385
|
5.82
|
-0.02
|
6.06
|
6.34
|
|
|
2021
|
14.11
|
12.59
|
-1.52
|
374
|
5.89
|
-0.02
|
6.05
|
6.35
|
|
|
2022
|
14.38
|
12.67
|
-1.71
|
363
|
5.96
|
-0.01
|
6.03
|
6.37
|
|
|
2023
|
14.63
|
12.74
|
-1.88
|
351
|
6.04
|
-0.01
|
6.02
|
6.38
|
|
|
2024
|
14.85
|
12.82
|
-2.04
|
338
|
6.11
|
-0.01
|
6.01
|
6.39
|
|
|
2025
|
15.06
|
12.89
|
-2.17
|
326
|
6.18
|
-0.01
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2026
|
15.24
|
12.97
|
-2.26
|
313
|
6.25
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2027
|
15.38
|
13.06
|
-2.33
|
301
|
6.33
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2028
|
15.50
|
13.14
|
-2.36
|
289
|
6.40
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2029
|
15.57
|
13.21
|
-2.36
|
277
|
6.47
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2030
|
15.62
|
13.29
|
-2.33
|
266
|
6.54
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2031
|
15.64
|
13.36
|
-2.28
|
255
|
6.61
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2032
|
15.63
|
13.44
|
-2.19
|
245
|
6.68
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2033
|
15.59
|
13.51
|
-2.08
|
235
|
6.75
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2034
|
15.52
|
13.57
|
-1.94
|
227
|
6.82
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2035
|
15.42
|
13.64
|
-1.78
|
219
|
6.89
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2036
|
15.30
|
13.70
|
-1.60
|
213
|
6.96
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2037
|
15.16
|
13.76
|
-1.40
|
208
|
7.02
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2038
|
14.99
|
13.81
|
-1.18
|
204
|
7.08
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2039
|
14.82
|
13.87
|
-0.95
|
202
|
7.15
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2040
|
14.63
|
13.92
|
-0.71
|
201
|
7.21
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2041
|
14.43
|
13.97
|
-0.46
|
202
|
7.27
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2042
|
14.23
|
14.02
|
-0.20
|
205
|
7.33
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2043
|
14.01
|
14.01
|
0.00
|
210
|
7.33
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2044
|
13.79
|
13.79
|
0.00
|
217
|
7.12
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2045
|
13.56
|
13.57
|
0.00
|
224
|
6.91
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2046
|
13.31
|
13.32
|
0.00
|
231
|
6.67
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2047
|
13.06
|
13.06
|
0.00
|
240
|
6.43
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2048
|
12.80
|
12.80
|
0.00
|
248
|
6.19
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2049
|
12.55
|
12.55
|
0.00
|
258
|
5.94
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2050
|
12.31
|
12.31
|
0.00
|
267
|
5.71
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2051
|
12.07
|
12.07
|
0.00
|
277
|
5.49
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2052
|
11.83
|
11.83
|
0.00
|
287
|
5.26
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2053
|
11.59
|
11.60
|
0.00
|
297
|
5.04
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2054
|
11.36
|
11.36
|
0.00
|
308
|
4.82
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2055
|
11.14
|
11.14
|
0.00
|
320
|
4.60
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2056
|
10.91
|
10.90
|
0.00
|
332
|
4.38
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2057
|
10.68
|
10.68
|
0.00
|
345
|
4.17
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2058
|
10.46
|
10.46
|
0.00
|
358
|
3.96
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2059
|
10.25
|
10.25
|
0.00
|
371
|
3.77
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2060
|
10.05
|
10.05
|
0.00
|
385
|
3.57
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2061
|
9.86
|
9.86
|
0.00
|
398
|
3.39
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2062
|
9.68
|
9.68
|
0.00
|
412
|
3.23
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2063
|
9.52
|
9.51
|
0.00
|
427
|
3.07
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2064
|
9.36
|
9.36
|
0.00
|
441
|
2.92
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2065
|
9.22
|
9.22
|
0.00
|
455
|
2.78
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2066
|
9.10
|
9.10
|
0.00
|
469
|
2.67
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2067
|
8.98
|
8.98
|
0.00
|
483
|
2.56
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2068
|
8.87
|
8.88
|
0.00
|
497
|
2.46
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2069
|
8.78
|
8.78
|
0.00
|
510
|
2.37
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2070
|
8.69
|
8.70
|
0.00
|
524
|
2.29
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2071
|
8.62
|
8.61
|
0.00
|
537
|
2.21
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2072
|
8.55
|
8.55
|
0.00
|
550
|
2.16
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2073
|
8.49
|
8.49
|
0.00
|
564
|
2.10
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2074
|
8.43
|
8.43
|
0.00
|
577
|
2.04
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2075
|
8.38
|
8.39
|
0.00
|
590
|
2.00
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2076
|
8.34
|
8.34
|
0.00
|
603
|
1.96
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2077
|
8.30
|
8.29
|
0.00
|
616
|
1.91
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2078
|
8.26
|
8.26
|
0.00
|
629
|
1.88
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2079
|
8.23
|
8.23
|
0.00
|
642
|
1.85
|
0.00
|
6.00
|
6.40
|
|
|
2004
-2078
|
Summarized OASDI
|
||||||||
|
Cost Rate
|
Income Rate
|
Actuarial
Balance
|
Change in
Actuarial Balance
|
||||||
|
12.57
|
12.88
|
0.31
|
2.23
|
||||||
| 1Includes Specified and Corporate Tax-based General Fund Transfers (see table .e) 2Net payroll tax rate to the Trust Funds; reduced by amount redirected for IA contribution, and cut for annual balance. |
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report
With Ultimate Real Interest Rate of 3.00
Office of the Chief Actuary
Social Security Administration
April 19, 2005
| Return to memorandum | Return to list of memos |