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| Actuarial Publications |
Summary of Provisions That Would Change the Social Security Program |
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Description of Proposed Provisions:
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Estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2012 Trustees Report
| Printer-friendly Version (PDF) |
| Change from present law | Results with this provision | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long-range actuarial balance |
Annual balance in 75th year |
Long-range actuarial balance |
Annual balance in 75th year |
|||
| Present Law, Alternative II. |
-2.67 | -4.50 | ||||
| B1.1 |
Price indexing of PIA formula factors beginning with those newly eligible
for OASDI benefits in 2019: Reduce PIA formula factors so that initial
benefits grow by inflation rather than by the SSA average wage index. graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
2.62 | 7.57 | -0.04 | 3.06 | |
| B1.2 |
Progressive price indexing (30th percentile) of PIA formula factors beginning
with individuals newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2019: Create a new bend
point at the 30th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers.
Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 30th percentile and below. Reduce
the 32 and 15 percent formula factors above the 30th percentile such that the
initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by
inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
1.43 | 4.10 | -1.24 | -0.40 | |
| B1.3 |
Progressive price indexing (40th percentile) of PIA formula factors beginning with
individuals newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2019: Create a new bend point at
the 40th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain
current-law benefits for earners at the 40th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and
15 percent formula factors above the 40th percentile such that the initial benefit for
a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth
in the SSA average wage index.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
1.19 | 3.40 | -1.48 | -1.11 | |
| B1.4 |
Progressive price indexing (50th percentile) of PIA formula factors beginning with
individuals newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2019: Create a new bend point at the 50th
percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for
earners at the 50th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent formula factors above the
50th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum
grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
0.94 | 2.51 | -1.72 | -1.99 | |
| B1.5 |
Progressive price indexing (60th percentile) of PIA formula factors beginning with
individuals newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2019: Create a new bend point at the 60th
percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for
earners at the 60th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent formula factors above the
60th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum
grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
0.66 | 1.55 | -2.00 | -2.95 | |
| B1.6 (2016) |
Progressive price indexing (30th percentile) of PIA formula factors beginning with
individuals newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2016: Create a new bend point at the 30th
percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits
for earners at the 30th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent formula factors
above the 30th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the
taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index. Young
survivors (children and spouses under normal retirement age with a child in care) are not
affected by this proposal. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement
age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of
disability, upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bennett) |
1.53 | 3.90 | -1.14 | -0.60 | |
| B1.6 (2021) |
Progressive price indexing (30th percentile) of PIA formula factors beginning with
individuals newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2021: Create a new bend point at the
30th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law
benefits for earners at the 30th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent formula
factors above the 30th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal
to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than growth in the SSA average wage index.
Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a
proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion
to retired-worker beneficiary status.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Ryan 2010) |
1.06 | 3.42 | -1.60 | -1.09 | |
| B1.7 |
Progressive price indexing (40th percentile) of PIA formula factors for individuals newly
eligible for OASI benefits in 2020 through 2057: Create a new bend point at the 40th
percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefit
credit for earners at the 40th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 formula factors
above the 40th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the
taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index.
Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a
proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion
to retired-worker beneficiary status. Young survivors (children of deceased workers and surviving
spouses with a child in care) are not affected.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Graham, Paul, Lee) |
0.90 | 2.36 | -1.76 | -2.15 | |
| B1.8 |
Progressive price indexing (50th percentile) of PIA formula factors for individuals newly
eligible for OASI benefits in 2017 through 2056: Create a new bend point at the 50th
percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefit
credit for earners at the 50th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 formula factors
above the 50th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the
taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index.
Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a
proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion
to retired-worker beneficiary status.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Chaffetz) |
0.96 | 2.18 | -1.70 | -2.33 | |
| B2.1 |
Beginning with those newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2022, multiply the PIA factors
by the ratio of life expectancy at 67 for 2017 to the life expectancy at age 67 for the
4th year prior to the year of benefit eligibility. Unisex life expectancies, based on
period life tables as computed by SSA's Office of the Chief Actuary, are used to determine
the ratio. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b)
subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability,
upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center) | memo (Bennett) |
0.53 | 1.77 | -2.14 | -2.74 | |
| B3.1 |
Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2013, multiply the 32 and 15
percent formula factors each year by 0.987. Stop reductions in 2043, when the formula
factors reach 21 percent and 10 percent, respectively.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
1.56 | 3.01 | -1.10 | -1.49 | |
| B3.2 |
Beginning with those newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2020, multiply the 90 and 32
percent PIA factors each year by 0.9925 and 0.982, respectively. Stop reductions in 2057.
Beginning with those newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2015, multiply the 15 factor by
0.982. Stop reduction of the 15 factor in 2052. Child beneficiaries and spouses with a
child in care under the OASI program are not affected by this proposal. Disabled workers
are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional
reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion to
retired-worker beneficiary status.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Liebman, MacGuineas, Samwick) |
1.99 | 5.24 | -0.68 | 0.74 | |
| B3.3 |
Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2013, use a modified primary
insurance amount (PIA) formula. The modified formula: (1) increases the first bend point
to the equivalent of $800 in 2009; (2) places a new bend point 75 percent of the way
between the reset first bend point and the current-law second bend point; (3) lowers the
PIA factor between the new bend point and the upper bend point from 32 percent to 20 percent;
and (4) lowers the factor above the upper bend point from 15 percent to 10 percent.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (AARP) |
0.22 | 0.27 | -2.44 | -4.24 | |
| B3.4 |
Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2016, multiply all PIA formula
factors each year by 0.991. Stop reductions after 2044. Disabled workers are: (a) not
affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in
benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion to retired-worker
beneficiary status. Young survivors (children of deceased workers and surviving spouses
with a child in care) are not affected.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Warshawsky) |
1.48 | 3.13 | -1.18 | -1.37 | |
| B3.5 |
Progressive indexing (30th percentile) of PIA formula factors beginning with individuals
newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2015, continuing through 2052, and resuming in 2073:
Create a new bend point at the 30th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired
workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 30th percentile and below. Reduce
the 32 and 15 percent formula factors above the 30th percentile such that the initial benefit
for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum is reduced by 1.12 percent per year as
compared to current law (for the years that progressive indexing applies). Disabled workers
are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional
reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion to
retired-worker beneficiary status.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (NRC/NAPA) |
1.22 | 2.89 | -1.45 | -1.62 | |
| B3.6 |
Progressive indexing (30th percentile) of PIA formula factors beginning with individuals
newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2015, continuing through 2064: Create a new bend point
at the 30th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law
benefits for earners at the 30th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent formula
factors above the 30th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal
to the taxable maximum is reduced by 1.12 percent per year as compared to current law (for the
years that progressive indexing applies). Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal
retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's
years of disability, upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (NRC/NAPA) |
1.30 | 3.32 | -1.37 | -1.18 | |
| B3.7 |
Progressive indexing (30th percentile) of PIA formula factors beginning with individuals
newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2015, continuing through 2024, and then resuming in 2063:
Create a new bend point at the 30th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers.
Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 30th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15
percent formula factors above the 30th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with
AIME equal to the taxable maximum is reduced by 1.12 percent per year as compared to current law
(for the years that progressive indexing applies). Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to
normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the
worker's years of disability, upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (NRC/NAPA) |
0.58 | 1.51 | -2.09 | -3.00 | |
| B3.8 |
Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2019, create a new bend point at
the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers and gradually reduce
all PIA formula factors except for the 90 percent factor. By 2052: a) the 32 percent PIA
formula factor below the new bend point reduces to 30 percent; b) the 32 percent PIA factor
above the new bend point reduces to 10 percent; and c) the 15 percent factor reduces to 5
percent.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Fiscal Commission) |
0.86 | 2.15 | -1.81 | -2.35 | |
| B3.9 |
Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2025, gradually reduce the 15
percent PIA formula factor in each year so that it reaches 10 percent for those newly
eligible in 2054 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center) |
0.07 | 0.21 | -2.59 | -4.29 | |
| B3.10 |
Increase the first PIA bend point above the current law level for workers newly eligible
for benefits in 2019 and later; by 1 percent for 2019, by 2 percent for 2020,..., and by
15 percent for 2033 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Harkin 2013) | memo (Harkin 2012) |
-0.37 | -0.71 | -3.03 | -5.22 | |
| B4.1 |
Increase the number of years used to calculate benefits for retirees and survivors (but
not for disabled workers) from 35 to 38, phased in over the years 2013-2017.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
0.30 | 0.43 | -2.37 | -4.07 | |
| B4.2 |
Increase the number of years used to calculate benefits for retirees and survivors (but
not for disabled workers) from 35 to 40, phased in over the years 2013-2021.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Chaffetz) | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
0.48 | 0.73 | -2.19 | -3.77 | |
| B4.3 |
For the OASI and DI computation of the PIA, gradually reduce the maximum number of
drop-out years from 5 to 0, phased in over the years 2014-2022.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Warshawsky) |
0.64 | 1.02 | -2.02 | -3.48 | |
| B5.1 |
Increase the PIA to a level such that a worker with 30 years of earnings at the
minimum wage level receives an adjusted PIA equal to 120 percent of the Federal
poverty level for an aged individual. This provision takes full effect for all
newly eligible OASDI workers in 2030, and is phased in for new eligibles in 2021
through 2029. The percentage increase in PIA is lowered proportionately for those
with fewer than 30 years of earnings, down to no enhancement for workers with 20
or fewer years of earnings. (Year-of-work requirements are "scaled" for disabled
workers based on their years of potential work from age 22 to benefit eligibility).
The benefit enhancement percentage is reduced proportionately for workers with higher
average indexed monthly earnings (AIME), down to no enhancement for those with AIME at
least twice that of a 35-year steady minimum wage earner.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Ryan 2010) |
-0.02 | 0.00 | -2.68 | -4.50 | |
| B5.2 |
Beginning in 2013, reconfigure the special minimum benefit: (a) A year of coverage is
defined as a year in which 4 quarters of coverage are earned. (b) At implementation,
set the PIA for 30 years of coverage equal to 125 percent of the monthly poverty level
(about $1,134 in 2011). For those with under 30 years of coverage, the PIA per year of
coverage over 10 years is $1,134/20 = $56.70. (c) Index the initial PIA per year of
coverage by wage growth for successive cohorts.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance) |
-0.19 | -0.27 | -2.86 | -4.77 | |
| B5.3 |
Beginning in 2013, reconfigure the special minimum benefit: (a) A year of coverage is
defined to be either a year in which 4 quarters of coverage are earned or a child is
in care. Childcare years are granted to parents who have a child under 5, with a limit
of 8 such years. (b) At implementation, set the PIA for 30 years of coverage equal to
125 percent of the monthly poverty level (about $1,134 in 2011). For those with under
30 years of coverage, the PIA per year of coverage over 10 years is $1,134/20 = $56.70.
(c) Index the initial PIA per year of coverage by wage growth for successive cohorts.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance) |
-0.28 | -0.41 | -2.95 | -4.91 | |
| B5.4 |
Beginning in 2019, reconfigure the special minimum benefit: (a) A year of coverage is
defined as a year in which 4 quarters of coverage are earned. (b) At implementation,
set the PIA for 30 years of coverage equal to 125 percent of the monthly poverty level
(about $1,134 in 2011). For those with under 30 years of coverage, the PIA per year of
coverage over 10 years is $1,134/20 = $56.70. (c) From 2011 to the year of implementation,
2019, index the PIA per year of coverage using the chain-CPI index. Then, for later years,
index the PIA per year of coverage by wage growth for successive cohorts. (d) Scale work
requirements for disabled workers, based on the number of years of non-disabled potential work.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Fiscal Commission) |
-0.13 | -0.21 | -2.79 | -4.72 | |
| B5.5 |
Beginning in 2014, reconfigure the special minimum benefit: (a) A year of coverage is
defined as a year in which either 20 percent of the "old law maximum" is earned or a
child is in care. Childcare years are granted to parents who have a child under 6,
with a limit of 8 such years. (b) At implementation, set the PIA for 30 years of
coverage equal to 133 percent of the poverty level. For those with under 30 years of
coverage, the PIA per year of coverage over 19 is 12.09 percent of poverty. (c) Use
the 2011 Aged Federal poverty level, increased by the SSA average wage index to 2 years
prior to benefit eligibility. (d) Scale work requirements for disabled workers, based
on the number of years of non-disabled potential work.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center) |
-0.10 | -0.16 | -2.76 | -4.66 | |
| B5.6 |
Beginning in 2013, reconfigure the special minimum benefit: (a) A year of coverage is
defined to be either a year in which 4 quarters of coverage are earned or a child is
in care. Childcare years are granted to parents who have a child under 6, with a limit
of 5 such years. (b) At implementation, set the PIA for 30 years of coverage equal to
100 percent of the monthly poverty level (about $931 in 2012). For those with under 30
years of coverage, the PIA per year of coverage over 10 years is $931/20 = $46.55. (c)
From 2012 to the year of implementation, 2013, index the PIA per year of coverage using
the CPI index. Then, for later years, index the PIA per year of coverage by wage growth
for successive cohorts. (d) Scale work requirements for disabled workers, based on the
number of years of non-disabled potential work.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Chaffetz) |
-0.13 | -0.20 | -2.80 | -4.71 | |
| B5.7 |
Beginning for those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2015, increase the special minimum
benefit to 100 percent of poverty by making the following changes: (a) The number of years
of work (YOW) is determined as total quarters of coverage divided by 4, ignoring any fraction.
Up to 5 additional years with a child under in 6 may be counted as YOWs. (b) Set the PIA for
30 or more YOWs equal to 100 percent of the monthly HHS poverty level for the year prior to
eligibility. For workers between 11 and 29 YOWs, reduce the special minimum by 3 1/3 percentage
point per YOW so that at 29 YOCs the minimum would be 96 2/3% of poverty,..., down to 11 YOWs
at 36 2/3% of poverty. No minimum for 10 or fewer YOCs.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Moore) |
-0.02 | 0.00 | -2.68 | -4.51 | |
| B6.1 |
Provide a 5 percent increase to the monthly benefit amount (MBA) of any beneficiary who
is 85 or older at the beginning of 2013 or who reaches their 85th birthday after the
beginning of 2013.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Chaffetz) | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance) |
-0.10 | -0.15 | -2.77 | -4.65 | |
| B6.2 |
Provide the same dollar amount increase to the monthly benefit amount (MBA) of any beneficiary
who is 85 or older at the beginning of 2013 or who reaches their 85th birthday after the
beginning of 2013. The dollar amount of increase equals 5 percent of the average retired-worker
MBA in the prior year.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance) |
-0.11 | -0.15 | -2.77 | -4.66 | |
| B6.3 |
Provide an increase in the benefit level of any beneficiary who is 85 or older at the
beginning of 2014 or who reaches their 85th birthday after the beginning of 2014. Increase
the beneficiary’s PIA based on an amount equal to the average retired-worker PIA at the end
of 2013, or at the end of the year age 80 if later. Increase the beneficiary’s PIA by 5
percent of this amount for those older than 85 at the beginning of 2014 and by 5 percent of
this amount at age 85 for others, phased in at 1 percent per year for ages 81-85.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center) |
-0.14 | -0.19 | -2.80 | -4.69 | |
| B6.4 |
Starting in 2013, provide a 5 percent uniform benefit increase 24 years after initial
benefit eligibility. Phase in the benefit increase at 1 percent per year from the 20th
through 24th years after eligibility. For disabled workers, the eligibility age is the
initial entitlement year to the benefit. The benefit increase is equal to 5 percent of
the PIA of a worker assumed to have career-average earnings equal to SSA’s average wage
index.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Fiscal Commission) |
-0.15 | -0.20 | -2.81 | -4.71 | |
| B6.5 |
Effective in 2015, provide a 5-percent uniform PIA increase 20 years after eligibility.
The benefit increase is phased in at 1 percent per year from the 16th through 20th years
after initial eligibility. The full PIA increase is equal to 5 percent of the PIA of a
worker assumed to have career-average earnings equal to SSA’s average wage index.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Moore) |
-0.23 | -0.31 | -2.89 | -4.81 | |
| B7.1 |
Reduce benefits by 3 percent for those newly eligible for benefits in 2013 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
0.37 | 0.51 | -2.29 | -4.00 | |
| B7.2 |
Reduce benefits by 5 percent for those newly eligible for benefits in 2013 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
0.62 | 0.84 | -2.04 | -3.66 | |
| B7.3 |
Give credit to parents with a child under 6 for earnings for up to five years. The earnings
credited for a childcare year equal one half of the SSA average wage index (about $21,505 in
2011). The credits are available for all past years to newly eligible retired-worker and
disabled-worker beneficiaries starting in 2013. The 5 years are chosen to yield the largest
increase in AIME.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance) |
-0.25 | -0.37 | -2.91 | -4.88 | |
| B7.4 |
Increase benefits by 2 percent for all beneficiaries as of the beginning of 2013 and
for those newly eligible for benefits after the beginning of 2013.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance) |
-0.31 | -0.34 | -2.98 | -4.84 | |
| B7.5 |
Increase benefits by 5 percent for all beneficiaries as of the beginning of 2013
and for those newly eligible for benefits after the beginning of 2013.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance) |
-0.77 | -0.84 | -3.44 | -5.34 | |
| B7.6 |
Increase benefits by 20 percent for all beneficiaries as of the beginning of 2013
and for those newly eligible for benefits after the beginning of 2013.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance) |
-3.10 | -3.36 | -5.76 | -7.87 | |
| B7.7 |
Reduce individual Social Security benefits if modified adjusted gross income, or MAGI
(AGI less taxable Social Security benefits plus nontaxable interest income) is above
$60,000 for single taxpayers or $120,000 for taxpayers filing jointly. This provision
is effective for individuals newly eligible for benefits in 2020 or later. The percentage
reduction increases linearly up to 50 percent for single/joint filers with MAGI of
$180,000/$360,000 or above. Index the MAGI thresholds for years after 2020, based on
changes in the SSA average wage index.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Chaffetz) |
0.26 | 0.39 | -2.41 | -4.11 | |
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