Table 2—Ryan Proposal—IA with Guarantee, Increases General Fund Transfers for spend cut through 2016
Low Yield Sensitivity Analysis
IA Contribution 6.4%,
Benefit Offset 100.0%
With Ultimate Real Trust Fund Interest Rate of 3.0
With Ultimate Real IA Net Yield Rate of 2.75
With Annuity Net Yield Rate of 2.75
Corporate Tax to Trust Fund as Percent of Pretax IA Real Yield 23.9
Year
Cost
Rate
Income
Rate1
Annual
Balance
Trust
Fund
Ratio
1-1-Year
Net General Fund
Transfers to Trust
Fund1
(Percent of Payroll)
Change in
OASDI
Effective
Contribution
Rate
Effective
OASDI
Contribution
Rate2
Cut in
Contribution
Rate for
Annual
Balance
IA Contribution
Rate---Redirected
from Payroll Tax
2003
10.89
12.70
1.81
288
 
 
12.40
 
0
2004
10.82
12.69
1.88
309
 
 
12.40
 
0
2005
10.73
7.62
-3.11
330
0.30
-5.38
7.02
 
5.38
2006
10.65
7.85
-2.80
305
0.86
-0.32
6.69
 
5.71
2007
10.67
8.31
-2.35
281
1.41
-0.11
6.59
 
5.81
2008
10.73
8.78
-1.95
260
1.96
-0.10
6.49
 
5.91
2009
10.84
9.26
-1.59
243
2.51
-0.09
6.40
 
6.00
2010
10.99
9.74
-1.25
228
3.06
-0.08
6.32
 
6.08
2011
11.16
10.27
-0.90
216
3.60
-0.06
6.26
 
6.14
2012
11.38
10.78
-0.60
207
4.15
-0.05
6.21
 
6.19
2013
11.62
11.29
-0.33
200
4.69
-0.04
6.16
 
6.24
2014
11.87
11.81
-0.06
196
5.22
-0.04
6.12
 
6.28
2015
12.12
12.32
0.20
194
5.75
-0.03
6.09
 
6.31
2016
12.39
12.85
0.46
194
6.28
-0.02
6.07
 
6.33
2017
12.64
12.92
0.28
197
6.35
-0.01
6.06
 
6.34
2018
12.90
13.00
0.10
198
6.42
-0.01
6.05
 
6.35
2019
13.14
13.08
-0.06
198
6.49
-0.01
6.04
 
6.36
2020
13.37
13.16
-0.21
197
6.57
-0.01
6.03
 
6.37
2021
13.61
13.24
-0.36
195
6.64
-0.01
6.03
 
6.37
2022
13.81
13.32
-0.48
193
6.71
-0.01
6.02
 
6.38
2023
13.96
13.40
-0.56
190
6.78
0.00
6.02
 
6.38
2024
14.10
13.48
-0.62
187
6.85
0.00
6.02
 
6.38
2025
14.21
13.55
-0.66
185
6.92
0.00
6.01
 
6.39
2026
14.30
13.63
-0.67
182
6.99
0.00
6.01
 
6.39
2027
14.36
13.70
-0.66
179
7.06
0.00
6.01
 
6.39
2028
14.38
13.77
-0.61
177
7.12
0.00
6.01
 
6.39
2029
14.37
13.84
-0.53
176
7.19
0.00
6.01
 
6.39
2030
14.33
13.91
-0.43
176
7.25
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2031
14.26
13.97
-0.29
176
7.32
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2032
14.16
14.03
-0.13
178
7.38
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2033
14.04
14.04
0.00
182
7.39
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2034
13.89
13.89
0.00
186
7.25
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2035
13.72
13.72
0.00
191
7.09
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2036
13.54
13.54
0.00
197
6.91
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2037
13.34
13.34
0.00
203
6.72
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2038
13.12
13.13
0.00
210
6.52
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2039
12.90
12.89
0.00
217
6.29
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2040
12.66
12.66
0.00
224
6.06
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2041
12.41
12.41
0.00
232
5.83
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2042
12.16
12.16
0.00
241
5.59
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2043
11.90
11.90
0.00
250
5.34
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2044
11.64
11.63
0.00
259
5.09
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2045
11.37
11.37
0.00
270
4.84
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2046
11.10
11.10
0.00
281
4.58
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2047
10.83
10.82
0.00
293
4.32
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2048
10.55
10.55
0.00
305
4.07
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2049
10.30
10.29
0.00
318
3.82
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2050
10.05
10.05
0.00
331
3.58
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2051
9.80
9.80
0.00
345
3.35
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2052
9.57
9.57
0.00
359
3.13
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2053
9.33
9.33
0.00
375
2.90
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2054
9.11
9.11
0.00
390
2.70
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2055
8.90
8.90
0.00
406
2.49
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2056
8.70
8.70
0.00
422
2.30
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2057
8.51
8.51
0.00
439
2.12
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2058
8.34
8.34
0.00
455
1.96
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2059
8.19
8.19
0.00
471
1.82
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2060
8.05
8.05
0.00
487
1.68
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2061
7.93
7.93
0.00
503
1.57
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2062
7.82
7.83
0.00
518
1.48
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2063
7.73
7.73
0.00
533
1.39
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2064
7.65
7.65
0.00
547
1.31
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2065
7.58
7.58
0.00
561
1.24
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2066
7.52
7.53
0.00
575
1.19
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2067
7.47
7.47
0.00
589
1.14
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2068
7.42
7.42
0.00
603
1.09
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2069
7.38
7.38
0.00
616
1.05
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2070
7.35
7.35
0.00
629
1.03
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2071
7.33
7.33
0.00
642
1.00
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2072
7.31
7.30
0.00
655
0.98
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2073
7.29
7.29
0.00
667
0.96
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2074
7.28
7.29
0.00
679
0.96
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2075
7.27
7.28
0.00
692
0.95
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2076
7.27
7.27
0.00
704
0.95
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2077
7.27
7.27
0.00
716
0.94
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
2078
7.27
7.27
0.00
728
0.94
0.00
6.00
 
6.40
 
Summarized
 
 
Cost
Rate
OASDI
Income
Rate
OASDI
Actuarial
Balance
OASDI
Change in

Actuarial
Balance
2003
-2077
11.45
11.77
0.32
2.24
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report.

1 Includes Specified and Corporate Tax-based General Fund Transfers (see table 2.d).
2 Net payroll tax rate to the Trust Funds; reduced by amount redirected for IA contribution, and cut for annual balance.
 
Office of the Actuary
Social Security Administration
July 15, 2004

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