Table 3 -- DeMint: Sensitivity Analysis -- IA/Annuity Yields 1% Below Expected
Benefit Offset 100.0% Ultimate
IA Contribution = 5.1%
With Ultimate Real Trust Fund Interest Rate 3.0
With Ultimate Real IA Net Yield Rate of: 4.03
With Offset Annuity Net Yield Rate of: 4.03
Year
Cost
Rate 1
Income
Rate
Annual
Balance
Cash
Trust
Fund
Ratio 2
1-1-Year
Percent of
IA Assets
in Social
Security
Transition
Bonds
0n 12/31
Effective
OASDI
Contribution
Rate
Cash Flow
to the
General
Fund
(see
Table 1c--
Billions
of Current
Dollars)
Net
Purchase
of Social
Security
Transition
Bonds
by IAs 3
Change in OASDI
Contribution Rate from--
IA
Contribution
Transfer
from
General
Fund
2003
10.89
12.70
1.81
288
 
12.40
 
 
 
 
2004
10.82
12.69
1.88
309
 
12.40
 
 
 
 
2005
10.73
8.41
-2.32
330
35
8.11
-40
1.51
4.29
 
2006
10.65
8.16
-2.50
326
35
7.85
-46
1.61
4.55
 
2007
10.67
8.08
-2.58
320
35
7.77
-50
1.66
4.63
 
2008
10.73
8.02
-2.71
312
35
7.69
-57
1.70
4.71
 
2009
10.84
7.96
-2.88
303
35
7.62
-68
1.74
4.78
 
2010
10.99
7.91
-3.07
292
35
7.55
-81
1.79
4.85
 
2011
11.16
7.91
-3.25
280
35
7.51
-94
1.82
4.89
 
2012
11.33
7.89
-3.44
267
35
7.47
-111
1.84
4.93
 
2013
11.53
7.87
-3.66
252
35
7.43
-131
1.86
4.97
 
2014
11.75
7.86
-3.88
236
35
7.40
-153
1.87
5.00
 
2015
11.97
7.85
-4.12
218
35
7.37
-178
1.88
5.03
 
2016
12.23
7.86
-4.37
199
35
7.36
-206
1.88
5.04
 
2017
12.49
7.87
-4.62
178
35
7.35
-238
1.88
5.05
 
2018
12.76
7.88
-4.88
156
35
7.34
-272
1.87
5.06
 
2019
13.02
7.90
-5.12
132
35
7.33
-308
1.87
5.07
 
2020
13.29
10.51
-2.78
107
35
9.93
-348
1.86
5.07
2.60
2021
13.56
11.73
-1.83
100
35
11.12
-391
1.84
5.08
3.80
2022
13.81
11.95
-1.86
100
35
11.32
-435
1.83
5.08
4.00
2023
14.01
12.17
-1.84
100
35
11.52
-477
1.81
5.08
4.20
2024
14.19
12.38
-1.81
100
35
11.71
-520
1.79
5.09
4.40
2025
14.36
12.50
-1.86
100
35
11.81
-565
1.76
5.09
4.50
2026
14.49
12.62
-1.88
100
35
11.91
-608
1.73
5.09
4.60
2027
14.61
12.73
-1.88
100
35
12.01
-653
1.70
5.09
4.70
2028
14.70
12.85
-1.85
100
35
12.11
-697
1.66
5.09
4.80
2029
14.76
12.97
-1.79
100
35
12.20
-740
1.63
5.10
4.90
2030
14.77
12.98
-1.79
100
35
12.20
-780
1.58
5.10
4.90
2031
14.76
12.89
-1.86
100
35
12.10
-817
1.54
5.10
4.80
2032
14.71
12.80
-1.90
100
35
12.00
-851
1.49
5.10
4.70
2033
14.62
12.91
-1.71
100
35
12.10
-882
1.44
5.10
4.80
2034
14.51
12.72
-1.79
100
35
11.90
-909
1.38
5.10
4.60
2035
14.38
12.63
-1.75
100
35
11.80
-935
1.33
5.10
4.50
2036
14.22
12.54
-1.68
100
35
11.70
-956
1.27
5.10
4.40
2037
14.04
12.44
-1.60
100
35
11.60
-974
1.20
5.10
4.30
2038
13.84
12.35
-1.49
100
35
11.50
-987
1.13
5.10
4.20
2039
13.62
12.06
-1.57
100
35
11.20
-997
1.06
5.10
3.90
2040
13.39
11.86
-1.53
100
35
11.00
-1,003
0.99
5.10
3.70
2041
13.15
11.86
-1.29
100
35
11.00
-1,007
0.91
5.10
3.70
2042
12.91
11.57
-1.34
100
35
10.70
-1,008
0.83
5.10
3.40
2043
12.66
11.47
-1.18
100
35
10.60
-1,007
0.74
5.10
3.30
2044
12.41
11.28
-1.13
100
35
10.40
-1,005
0.65
5.10
3.10
2045
12.17
11.19
-0.98
100
35
10.30
-1,005
0.56
5.10
3.00
2046
11.95
11.09
-0.86
100
35
10.20
-1,008
0.47
5.10
2.90
2047
11.73
10.90
-0.83
100
35
10.00
-1,009
0.37
5.10
2.70
2048
11.50
10.81
-0.70
100
35
9.90
-1,009
0.27
5.10
2.60
2049
11.25
10.62
-0.63
100
35
9.70
-1,001
0.15
5.10
2.40
2050
11.01
10.52
-0.48
100
35
9.60
-995
0.04
5.10
2.30
2051
10.79
10.53
-0.26
100
35
9.60
-995
-0.07
5.10
2.30
2052
10.59
10.44
-0.15
100
35
9.50
-999
-0.18
5.10
2.20
2053
10.46
10.35
-0.11
100
35
9.40
-1,019
-0.26
5.10
2.10
2054
10.34
10.36
0.02
100
35
9.40
-1,043
-0.34
5.10
2.10
2055
10.22
10.37
0.15
100
35
9.40
-1,063
-0.42
5.10
2.10
2056
10.10
10.28
0.18
100
35
9.30
-1,084
-0.50
5.10
2.00
2057
9.98
10.29
0.31
100
35
9.30
-1,107
-0.57
5.10
2.00
2058
9.87
10.20
0.32
100
35
9.20
-1,132
-0.64
5.10
1.90
2059
9.77
10.21
0.44
100
35
9.20
-1,157
-0.71
5.10
1.90
2060
9.67
10.21
0.54
100
35
9.20
-1,185
-0.77
5.10
1.90
2061
9.59
10.22
0.64
100
35
9.20
-1,216
-0.83
5.10
1.90
2062
9.51
10.13
0.62
100
35
9.10
-1,253
-0.89
5.10
1.80
2063
9.45
10.14
0.69
100
35
9.10
-1,298
-0.94
5.10
1.80
2064
9.40
10.15
0.75
100
35
9.10
-1,349
-1.00
5.10
1.80
2065
9.33
10.15
0.82
100
35
9.10
-1,390
-1.04
5.10
1.80
2066
9.27
10.16
0.89
100
35
9.10
-1,437
-1.09
5.10
1.80
2067
9.23
10.16
0.94
100
35
9.10
-1,492
-1.13
5.10
1.80
2068
9.19
10.17
0.97
100
35
9.10
-1,556
-1.17
5.10
1.80
2069
9.17
10.28
1.10
100
35
9.20
-1,627
-1.20
5.10
1.90
2070
9.16
10.18
1.02
101
35
9.10
-1,707
-1.23
5.10
1.80
2071
9.15
10.19
1.03
100
35
9.10
-1,795
-1.26
5.10
1.80
2072
9.16
10.29
1.14
100
35
9.20
-1,893
-1.28
5.10
1.90
2073
9.17
10.40
1.23
100
35
9.30
-2,000
-1.30
5.10
2.00
2074
9.18
10.30
1.12
101
35
9.20
-2,117
-1.32
5.10
1.90
2075
9.21
10.41
1.20
100
35
9.30
-2,244
-1.34
5.10
2.00
2076
9.23
10.42
1.18
100
35
9.30
-2,381
-1.35
5.10
2.00
2077
9.27
10.52
1.25
100
35
9.40
-2,527
-1.36
5.10
2.10
2078
9.30
10.53
1.22
100
35
9.40
-2,686
-1.37
5.10
2.10
 
Summarized
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cost
Rate
OASDI
 
Income
Rate
OASDI
 
Actuarial
Balance
OASDI
 
Change in
Actuarial
Balance
 
 
 
 
 
 
2003
-2077
12.03
11.15
-0.88
1.04
 
 
 
 
 
 
1 Net of Benefit Offset.
2 Including borrowing from Individual Accounts in Form of Social Security Transition Bonds.
3 Excluding reinvestment of interest in Social Security Transition Bonds.

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report.
 
Office of the Chief Actuary
Social Security Administration
September 9, 2003

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