Table 2 -- DeMint: Sensitivity Analysis -- IA/Annuity Yields 1% Above Expected
Benefit Offset 100.0% Ultimate
IA Contribution = 5.1%
With Ultimate Real Trust Fund Interest Rate 3.0
With Ultimate Real IA Net Yield Rate of: 6.03
With Offset Annuity Net Yield Rate of: 6.03
Year
Cost
Rate 1
Income
Rate
Annual
Balance
Cash
Trust
Fund
Ratio 2
1-1-Year
Percent of
IA Assets
in Social
Security
Transition
Bonds
0n 12/31
Effective
OASDI
Contribution
Rate
Cash Flow
to the
General
Fund
(see
Table 1c--
Billions
of Current
Dollars)
Net
Purchase
of Social
Security
Transition
Bonds
by IAs 3
Change in OASDI
Contribution Rate from--
IA
Contribution
Transfer
from
General
Fund
2003
10.89
12.70
1.81
288
 
12.40
 
 
 
 
2004
10.82
12.69
1.88
309
 
12.40
 
 
 
 
2005
10.73
8.41
-2.32
330
35
8.11
-39
1.52
4.29
 
2006
10.65
8.16
-2.50
326
35
7.85
-43
1.66
4.55
 
2007
10.67
8.08
-2.58
320
35
7.77
-46
1.74
4.63
 
2008
10.73
8.02
-2.71
314
35
7.69
-51
1.82
4.71
 
2009
10.84
7.96
-2.88
305
35
7.62
-59
1.90
4.78
 
2010
10.99
7.91
-3.07
296
35
7.55
-69
1.98
4.85
 
2011
11.16
7.91
-3.25
285
35
7.51
-79
2.06
4.89
 
2012
11.33
7.89
-3.44
275
35
7.47
-91
2.12
4.93
 
2013
11.52
7.87
-3.65
262
35
7.43
-106
2.18
4.97
 
2014
11.73
7.86
-3.87
249
35
7.40
-123
2.24
5.00
 
2015
11.95
7.85
-4.09
235
35
7.37
-142
2.30
5.03
 
2016
12.19
7.86
-4.33
219
35
7.36
-163
2.35
5.04
 
2017
12.43
7.87
-4.56
202
35
7.35
-187
2.41
5.05
 
2018
12.68
7.88
-4.80
185
35
7.34
-212
2.45
5.06
 
2019
12.92
7.90
-5.02
166
35
7.33
-238
2.50
5.07
 
2020
13.16
7.91
-5.24
147
35
7.33
-267
2.55
5.07
 
2021
13.40
7.93
-5.46
126
35
7.32
-297
2.59
5.08
 
2022
13.60
10.05
-3.55
106
35
9.42
-326
2.63
5.08
2.10
2023
13.75
11.07
-2.69
100
35
10.42
-351
2.66
5.08
3.10
2024
13.88
11.08
-2.80
100
35
10.41
-376
2.70
5.09
3.10
2025
14.00
11.10
-2.90
100
35
10.41
-401
2.73
5.09
3.10
2026
14.08
11.12
-2.96
100
35
10.41
-423
2.76
5.09
3.10
2027
14.13
11.13
-3.00
100
35
10.41
-444
2.78
5.09
3.10
2028
14.15
11.15
-3.00
100
35
10.41
-462
2.80
5.09
3.10
2029
14.13
10.97
-3.16
100
35
10.20
-475
2.81
5.10
2.90
2030
14.07
10.88
-3.18
100
35
10.10
-483
2.82
5.10
2.80
2031
13.96
10.80
-3.16
100
35
10.00
-485
2.82
5.10
2.70
2032
13.81
10.61
-3.20
100
35
9.80
-480
2.82
5.10
2.50
2033
13.62
10.32
-3.30
100
35
9.50
-468
2.81
5.10
2.20
2034
13.40
10.13
-3.26
100
35
9.30
-448
2.80
5.10
2.00
2035
13.17
9.94
-3.23
100
35
9.10
-428
2.77
5.10
1.80
2036
12.92
9.66
-3.26
100
35
8.80
-400
2.75
5.10
1.50
2037
12.63
9.47
-3.17
100
35
8.60
-364
2.71
5.10
1.30
2038
12.33
9.08
-3.25
100
35
8.20
-321
2.67
5.10
0.90
2039
12.00
8.89
-3.11
100
35
8.00
-270
2.61
5.10
0.70
2040
11.65
8.50
-3.15
100
35
7.60
-213
2.55
5.10
0.30
2041
11.30
8.21
-3.08
100
35
7.30
-148
2.48
5.10
 
2042
10.93
8.22
-2.71
100
35
7.30
-78
2.40
5.10
 
2043
10.56
8.24
-2.32
102
35
7.30
-1
2.31
5.10
 
2044
10.18
8.25
-1.93
108
34.93
7.30
7
1.95
5.10
 
2045
9.82
8.27
-1.54
114
34.79
7.30
3
1.55
5.10
 
2046
9.48
8.29
-1.19
120
34.60
7.30
8
1.21
5.10
 
2047
9.14
8.31
-0.83
127
34.36
7.30
6
0.85
5.10
 
2048
8.80
8.33
-0.46
135
34.08
7.30
12
0.50
5.10
 
2049
8.41
8.36
-0.05
144
33.75
7.30
5
0.06
5.10
 
2050
8.04
8.39
0.35
153
33.38
7.30
1
-0.35
5.10
 
2051
7.72
8.42
0.70
163
32.99
7.30
13
-0.67
5.10
 
2052
7.42
8.45
1.03
172
32.58
7.30
14
-0.99
5.10
 
2053
7.26
8.48
1.21
180
32.17
7.30
19
-1.17
5.10
 
2054
7.13
8.51
1.38
187
31.76
7.30
15
-1.34
5.10
 
2055
6.91
8.53
1.63
197
31.33
7.30
8
-1.61
5.10
 
2056
6.70
8.56
1.86
207
30.89
7.30
16
-1.83
5.10
 
2057
6.51
8.59
2.08
217
30.44
7.30
19
-2.04
5.10
 
2058
6.34
8.62
2.28
227
30.00
7.30
71
-2.14
5.10
 
2059
6.18
8.65
2.46
239
29.53
7.30
9
-2.45
5.10
 
2060
6.04
8.67
2.63
249
29.06
7.30
23
-2.59
5.10
 
2061
5.93
8.70
2.78
259
28.59
7.30
32
-2.72
5.10
 
2062
5.84
8.73
2.90
269
28.12
7.30
31
-2.85
5.10
 
2063
5.77
8.76
2.99
278
27.65
7.30
19
-2.96
5.10
 
2064
5.73
8.79
3.06
285
27.19
7.30
34
-3.01
5.10
 
2065
5.57
8.81
3.24
299
26.71
7.30
11
-3.23
5.10
 
2066
5.43
8.83
3.40
313
26.22
7.30
18
-3.38
5.10
 
2067
5.31
8.85
3.54
326
25.72
7.30
16
-3.52
5.10
 
2068
5.20
8.86
3.66
338
25.21
7.30
3
-3.66
5.10
 
2069
5.12
8.88
3.76
350
24.70
7.30
30
-3.72
5.10
 
2070
5.06
8.90
3.84
361
24.19
7.30
50
-3.78
5.10
 
2071
5.01
8.91
3.90
372
23.67
7.30
6
-3.89
5.10
 
2072
4.99
8.93
3.94
380
23.15
7.30
6
-3.94
5.10
 
2073
4.97
8.95
3.97
388
22.64
7.30
60
-3.91
5.10
 
2074
4.98
8.96
3.98
396
22.13
7.30
44
-3.94
5.10
 
2075
4.99
8.97
3.98
402
21.62
7.30
16
-3.97
5.10
 
2076
5.02
8.99
3.96
407
21.12
7.30
51
-3.92
5.10
 
2077
5.06
9.00
3.94
412
20.62
7.30
4
-3.93
5.10
 
2078
5.11
9.01
3.90
415
20.13
7.30
25
-3.88
5.10
 
 
Summarized
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cost
Rate
OASDI
 
Income
Rate
OASDI
 
Actuarial
Balance
OASDI
 
Change in
Actuarial
Balance
 
 
 
 
 
 
2003
-2077
10.61
9.74
-0.87
1.04
 
 
 
 
 
 
1 Net of Benefit Offset.
2 Including borrowing from Individual Accounts in Form of Social Security Transition Bonds.
3 Excluding reinvestment of interest in Social Security Transition Bonds.

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report.
 
Office of the Chief Actuary
Social Security Administration
September 9, 2003

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