Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Calendar period |
In force beginning of period |
Awards during period |
Terminations during period |
In force end of period |
Current-payment status end of period |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8.0 |
1,139.1 |
$53.41 |
384.1 |
$58.92 |
268.4 |
0.9647 |
$55.65 |
1,254.8 |
$58.50 |
1.0010 |
$58.56 |
|
6.4 |
1,254.8 |
58.50 |
360.4 |
66.33 |
309.4 |
.9389 |
58.44 |
1,305.8 |
64.27 |
1.0022 |
64.41 |
|
5.9 |
1,305.8 |
64.27 |
360.2 |
74.75 |
321.3 |
.9363 |
63.72 |
1,344.7 |
70.89 |
1.0018 |
71.02 |
|
6.5 |
1,344.7 |
70.89 |
297.2 |
83.57 |
320.9 |
.9384 |
70.85 |
1,321.0 |
78.63 |
1.0037 |
78.92 |
|
9.9 |
1,321.0 |
78.63 |
247.3 |
96.60 |
313.4 |
.9314 |
80.48 |
1,254.9 |
89.92 |
1.0020 |
90.10 |
|
14.3 |
1,254.9 |
89.92 |
233.1 |
101.06 |
287.4 |
.9254 |
95.11 |
1,200.6 |
104.33 |
1.0026 |
104.60 |
|
11.2 |
1,200.6 |
104.33 |
202.2 |
95.29 |
304.4 |
.9376 |
108.77 |
1,098.4 |
114.21 |
1.0125 |
115.64 |
|
7.4 |
1,098.4 |
114.21 |
151.8 |
98.69 |
314.5 |
.9323 |
114.36 |
935.7 |
121.82 |
1.0202 |
124.28 |
|
3.5 |
935.7 |
121.82 |
153.3 |
105.67 |
185.2 |
.7378 |
93.02 |
903.8 |
129.40 |
1.0336 |
133.75 |
|
3.5 |
903.8 |
129.40 |
172.9 |
108.28 |
166.8 |
.9045 |
121.14 |
909.9 |
131.40 |
1.0398 |
136.63 |
|
3.1 |
909.9 |
131.40 |
188.5 |
111.51 |
149.6 |
.9163 |
124.13 |
948.8 |
132.70 |
1.0463 |
138.85 |
|
1.3 |
948.8 |
132.70 |
196.5 |
113.08 |
164.8 |
.9647 |
129.69 |
980.5 |
131.13 |
1.0554 |
138.39 |
|
4.2 |
980.5 |
131.13 |
191.6 |
116.73 |
180.8 |
.9538 |
130.33 |
991.3 |
134.35 |
1.0642 |
142.97 |
|
4.0 |
991.3 |
134.35 |
195.6 |
118.04 |
199.4 |
.9437 |
131.86 |
987.6 |
137.14 |
1.0693 |
146.65 |
|
4.7 |
987.6 |
137.14 |
196.8 |
125.38 |
190.0 |
.9431 |
135.42 |
994.4 |
141.69 |
1.0723 |
151.94 |
|
5.4 |
994.4 |
141.69 |
216.2 |
131.67 |
181.6 |
.9362 |
139.82 |
1,029.0 |
147.54 |
1.0764 |
158.81 |
|
3.7 |
1,029.0 |
147.54 |
249.5 |
135.16 |
180.8 |
.9393 |
143.71 |
1,097.7 |
150.58 |
1.0804 |
162.69 |
|
3.0 |
1,097.7 |
150.58 |
305.4 |
135.25 |
190.8 |
.9342 |
144.89 |
1,212.3 |
151.77 |
1.0880 |
165.12 |
|
2.6 |
1,212.3 |
151.77 |
316.3 |
138.24 |
202.3 |
.9327 |
145.23 |
1,326.2 |
153.25 |
1.0945 |
167.73 |
|
2.8 |
1,326.2 |
153.25 |
325.8 |
144.33 |
219.9 |
.9157 |
144.27 |
1,432.2 |
156.70 |
1.0989 |
172.20 |
|
2.6 |
1,432.2 |
156.70 |
314.3 |
154.08 |
244.6 |
.9182 |
147.63 |
1,502.0 |
161.64 |
1.1007 |
177.92 |
|
2.9 |
1,502.0 |
161.64 |
310.2 |
164.09 |
252.8 |
.8405 |
139.79 |
1,559.3 |
170.29 |
1.1024 |
187.72 |
|
2.1 |
1,559.3 |
170.29 |
277.3 |
172.53 |
300.8 |
.8953 |
155.65 |
1,535.9 |
177.27 |
1.1011 |
195.19 |
|
1.3 |
1,535.9 |
177.27 |
279.1 |
179.10 |
261.9 |
.8939 |
160.53 |
1,553.1 |
182.78 |
1.1020 |
201.42 |
|
1 2.5 |
1,553.1 |
182.78 |
283.0 |
185.35 |
264.1 |
.9103 |
170.39 |
1,572.0 |
189.75 |
1.1041 |
209.51 |
|
3.5 |
1,572.0 |
189.75 |
271.0 |
198.25 |
270.9 |
.9202 |
180.71 |
1,572.1 |
199.57 |
1.1062 |
220.77 |
|
... |
1,572.1 |
199.57 |
70.7 |
202.66 |
67.5 |
1.0000 |
199.57 |
1,575.3 |
199.71 |
1.1056 |
220.79 |
|
... |
1,575.3 |
199.71 |
70.7 |
202.87 |
67.6 |
.9300 |
185.73 |
1,578.4 |
200.45 |
1.1056 |
221.61 |
|
... |
1,578.4 |
200.45 |
70.7 |
203.07 |
67.8 |
.8300 |
166.37 |
1,581.4 |
202.03 |
1.1056 |
223.35 |
|
2.8 |
1,581.4 |
202.03 |
66.3 |
208.97 |
67.8 |
.9300 |
193.16 |
1,579.8 |
208.38 |
1.1056 |
230.37 |
|
... |
1,579.8 |
208.38 |
73.7 |
210.01 |
67.9 |
1.0000 |
208.38 |
1,585.6 |
208.45 |
1.1056 |
230.46 |
|
... |
1,585.6 |
208.45 |
73.7 |
211.04 |
68.1 |
.9300 |
193.86 |
1,591.1 |
209.20 |
1.1056 |
231.28 |
|
... |
1,591.1 |
209.20 |
73.7 |
212.07 |
68.4 |
.8300 |
173.63 |
1,596.4 |
210.85 |
1.1056 |
233.11 |
|
2.9 |
1,596.4 |
210.85 |
69.0 |
219.29 |
68.5 |
.9300 |
201.80 |
1,597.0 |
217.74 |
1.1056 |
240.72 |
|
... |
1,597.0 |
217.74 |
76.1 |
220.53 |
68.7 |
1.0000 |
217.74 |
1,604.4 |
217.87 |
1.1056 |
240.87 |
|
... |
1,604.4 |
217.87 |
76.1 |
221.76 |
69.0 |
.9300 |
202.62 |
1,611.6 |
218.71 |
1.1056 |
241.79 |
|
... |
1,611.6 |
218.71 |
76.1 |
223.00 |
69.3 |
.8300 |
181.53 |
1,618.5 |
220.50 |
1.1056 |
243.77 |
|
3.0 |
1,618.5 |
220.50 |
71.3 |
230.97 |
69.5 |
.9300 |
211.23 |
1,620.3 |
227.98 |
1.1056 |
252.05 |
|
... |
1,620.3 |
227.98 |
78.6 |
232.21 |
69.7 |
1.0000 |
227.98 |
1,629.2 |
228.19 |
1.1056 |
252.27 |
|
... |
1,629.2 |
228.19 |
78.6 |
233.45 |
70.1 |
.9300 |
212.21 |
1,637.8 |
229.12 |
1.1056 |
253.31 |
|
... |
1,637.8 |
229.12 |
78.6 |
234.69 |
70.4 |
.8300 |
190.17 |
1,645.9 |
231.06 |
1.1056 |
255.44 |
|
3.1 |
1,645.9 |
231.06 |
73.7 |
243.24 |
70.7 |
.9300 |
221.56 |
1,648.9 |
239.18 |
1.1056 |
264.42 |
|
... |
1,648.9 |
239.18 |
81.4 |
244.38 |
71.0 |
1.0000 |
239.18 |
1,659.4 |
239.43 |
1.1056 |
264.70 |
|
... |
1,659.4 |
239.43 |
81.4 |
245.52 |
71.4 |
.9300 |
222.67 |
1,669.4 |
240.44 |
1.1056 |
265.82 |
|
... |
1,669.4 |
240.44 |
81.4 |
246.66 |
71.8 |
.8300 |
199.57 |
1,679.0 |
242.50 |
1.1056 |
268.09 |
|
3.2 |
1,679.0 |
242.50 |
76.3 |
255.73 |
72.1 |
.9300 |
232.75 |
1,683.2 |
251.27 |
1.1056 |
277.79 |
|
... |
1,683.2 |
251.27 |
84.2 |
256.66 |
72.5 |
1.0000 |
251.27 |
1,695.0 |
251.54 |
1.1056 |
278.09 |
|
... |
1,695.0 |
251.54 |
84.2 |
257.60 |
73.0 |
.9300 |
233.93 |
1,706.2 |
252.59 |
1.1056 |
279.25 |
|
... |
1,706.2 |
252.59 |
84.2 |
258.53 |
73.4 |
.8300 |
209.65 |
1,717.1 |
254.72 |
1.1056 |
281.61 |
|
3.3 |
1,717.1 |
254.72 |
78.9 |
268.02 |
73.8 |
.9300 |
244.73 |
1,722.2 |
264.16 |
1.1056 |
292.04 |
|
... |
1,722.2 |
264.16 |
86.7 |
268.87 |
74.2 |
1.0000 |
264.16 |
1,734.8 |
264.39 |
1.1056 |
292.30 |
|
... |
1,734.8 |
264.39 |
86.7 |
269.71 |
74.7 |
.9300 |
245.89 |
1,746.8 |
265.45 |
1.1056 |
293.47 |
|
... |
1,746.8 |
265.45 |
86.7 |
270.56 |
75.2 |
.8300 |
220.32 |
1,758.3 |
267.63 |
1.1056 |
295.88 |
|
3.3 |
1,758.3 |
267.63 |
81.2 |
280.36 |
75.6 |
.9300 |
257.13 |
1,764.0 |
277.49 |
1.1056 |
306.78 |
|
... |
1,764.0 |
277.49 |
89.3 |
281.21 |
76.0 |
1.0000 |
277.49 |
1,777.3 |
277.68 |
1.1056 |
306.98 |
|
... |
1,777.3 |
277.68 |
89.3 |
282.06 |
76.5 |
.9300 |
258.24 |
1,790.1 |
278.73 |
1.1056 |
308.15 |
|
... |
1,790.1 |
278.73 |
89.3 |
282.91 |
77.1 |
.8300 |
231.34 |
1,802.4 |
280.96 |
1.1056 |
310.61 |
|
3.3 |
1,802.4 |
280.96 |
83.7 |
293.13 |
77.5 |
.9300 |
269.93 |
1,808.6 |
291.25 |
1.1056 |
322.00 |
|
... |
1,808.6 |
291.25 |
91.9 |
293.99 |
77.9 |
1.0000 |
291.25 |
1,822.6 |
291.39 |
1.1056 |
322.15 |
|
... |
1,822.6 |
291.39 |
91.9 |
294.86 |
78.5 |
.9300 |
270.99 |
1,836.0 |
292.44 |
1.1056 |
323.30 |
|
... |
1,836.0 |
292.44 |
91.9 |
295.72 |
79.0 |
.8300 |
242.72 |
1,848.9 |
294.73 |
1.1056 |
325.83 |
|
3.3 |
1,848.9 |
294.73 |
86.1 |
306.37 |
79.5 |
.9300 |
283.16 |
1,855.5 |
305.47 |
1.1056 |
337.72 |
|
... |
1,855.5 |
305.47 |
94.7 |
307.31 |
79.9 |
1.0000 |
305.47 |
1,870.3 |
305.57 |
1.1056 |
337.82 |
|
... |
1,870.3 |
305.57 |
94.7 |
308.25 |
80.5 |
.9300 |
284.18 |
1,884.5 |
306.61 |
1.1056 |
338.98 |
|
... |
1,884.5 |
306.61 |
94.7 |
309.19 |
81.1 |
.8300 |
254.49 |
1,898.1 |
308.97 |
1.1056 |
341.58 |
|
3.3 |
1,898.1 |
308.97 |
88.8 |
320.36 |
81.6 |
.9300 |
296.84 |
1,905.3 |
320.20 |
1.1056 |
354.00 |
1 Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources: See sources at end of table III.D5.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001