Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Calendar period |
In force beginning of period |
Awards during period |
Terminations during period |
In force end of period |
Current-payment status end of period |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3.5 |
$5.35 |
2.4 |
$66.58 |
0.3 |
-1.0588 |
-$5.86 |
2.1 |
$75.19 |
1.0154 |
$76.35 |
||
3.5 |
2.1 |
75.19 |
2.6 |
68.71 |
.9 |
1.1383 |
88.59 |
3.8 |
69.21 |
1.0876 |
75.27 |
|
3.1 |
3.8 |
69.21 |
1.7 |
67.93 |
.7 |
1.2145 |
86.66 |
4.8 |
67.85 |
1.1262 |
76.41 |
|
1.3 |
4.8 |
67.85 |
1.7 |
69.95 |
.9 |
1.2680 |
87.15 |
5.6 |
66.15 |
1.1475 |
75.91 |
|
4.2 |
5.6 |
66.15 |
1.8 |
67.59 |
1.2 |
1.0307 |
71.05 |
6.2 |
68.39 |
1.1575 |
79.16 |
|
4.0 |
6.2 |
68.39 |
1.7 |
67.10 |
1.3 |
.9748 |
69.33 |
6.5 |
70.07 |
1.1583 |
81.16 |
|
4.7 |
6.5 |
70.07 |
1.3 |
70.12 |
1.2 |
.9034 |
66.28 |
6.6 |
73.64 |
1.1635 |
85.68 |
|
5.4 |
6.6 |
73.64 |
1.5 |
71.78 |
1.2 |
.8208 |
63.71 |
6.9 |
78.32 |
1.1668 |
91.38 |
|
3.7 |
6.9 |
78.32 |
1.8 |
79.93 |
1.3 |
.8620 |
70.01 |
7.4 |
82.00 |
1.1657 |
95.59 |
|
3.0 |
7.4 |
82.00 |
2.0 |
80.52 |
1.3 |
.8594 |
72.58 |
8.1 |
84.63 |
1.1723 |
99.21 |
|
2.6 |
8.1 |
84.63 |
1.9 |
80.18 |
1.5 |
.9417 |
81.76 |
8.5 |
85.97 |
1.1748 |
101.00 |
|
2.8 |
8.5 |
85.97 |
1.7 |
87.79 |
1.6 |
.9990 |
88.29 |
8.7 |
88.32 |
1.1848 |
104.64 |
|
2.6 |
8.7 |
88.32 |
1.5 |
93.36 |
1.6 |
1.0362 |
93.89 |
8.7 |
90.54 |
1.1773 |
106.59 |
|
2.9 |
8.7 |
90.54 |
1.3 |
104.41 |
1.5 |
.9587 |
89.31 |
8.5 |
95.93 |
1.1229 |
107.72 |
|
2.1 |
8.5 |
95.93 |
1.0 |
101.47 |
1.4 |
1.0032 |
98.26 |
8.0 |
98.43 |
1.1155 |
109.80 |
|
1.3 |
8.0 |
98.43 |
.9 |
110.47 |
1.4 |
.9779 |
97.50 |
7.5 |
101.54 |
1.1356 |
115.31 |
|
3 2.5 |
7.5 |
101.54 |
.8 |
114.83 |
1.4 |
.9796 |
101.85 |
6.9 |
105.79 |
1.1386 |
120.45 |
|
3.5 |
6.9 |
105.79 |
.8 |
125.50 |
1.2 |
1.0166 |
111.32 |
6.5 |
111.25 |
1.1407 |
126.90 |
|
... |
6.5 |
111.25 |
.2 |
126.10 |
.3 |
1.0000 |
111.25 |
6.4 |
111.73 |
1.1310 |
126.37 |
|
... |
6.4 |
111.73 |
.2 |
126.96 |
.3 |
.9800 |
109.49 |
6.3 |
112.33 |
1.1310 |
127.04 |
|
... |
6.3 |
112.33 |
.2 |
127.82 |
.3 |
.9200 |
103.34 |
6.2 |
113.25 |
1.1310 |
128.09 |
|
2.8 |
6.2 |
113.25 |
.2 |
132.28 |
.3 |
1.0000 |
116.44 |
6.1 |
116.92 |
1.1310 |
132.24 |
|
... |
6.1 |
116.92 |
.2 |
132.99 |
.3 |
1.0000 |
116.92 |
6.1 |
117.50 |
1.1310 |
132.90 |
|
... |
6.1 |
117.50 |
.2 |
133.70 |
.3 |
.9800 |
115.15 |
6.0 |
118.21 |
1.1310 |
133.70 |
|
... |
6.0 |
118.21 |
.2 |
134.41 |
.3 |
.9200 |
108.75 |
6.0 |
119.25 |
1.1310 |
134.87 |
|
2.9 |
6.0 |
119.25 |
.2 |
139.04 |
.3 |
1.0000 |
122.72 |
5.9 |
123.28 |
1.1310 |
139.43 |
|
... |
5.9 |
123.28 |
.2 |
139.84 |
.3 |
1.0000 |
123.28 |
5.8 |
123.92 |
1.1310 |
140.16 |
|
... |
5.8 |
123.92 |
.2 |
140.64 |
.3 |
.9800 |
121.44 |
5.8 |
124.69 |
1.1310 |
141.03 |
|
... |
5.8 |
124.69 |
.2 |
141.44 |
.3 |
.9200 |
114.72 |
5.8 |
125.82 |
1.1310 |
142.30 |
|
3.0 |
5.8 |
125.82 |
.2 |
146.51 |
.3 |
1.0000 |
129.61 |
5.7 |
130.24 |
1.1310 |
147.31 |
|
... |
5.7 |
130.24 |
.2 |
147.13 |
.3 |
1.0000 |
130.24 |
5.7 |
130.94 |
1.1310 |
148.10 |
|
... |
5.7 |
130.94 |
.2 |
147.74 |
.3 |
.9800 |
128.32 |
5.7 |
131.78 |
1.1310 |
149.05 |
|
... |
5.7 |
131.78 |
.2 |
148.36 |
.3 |
.9200 |
121.24 |
5.6 |
132.96 |
1.1310 |
150.39 |
|
3.1 |
5.6 |
132.96 |
.2 |
153.59 |
.3 |
1.0000 |
137.10 |
5.6 |
137.75 |
1.1310 |
155.80 |
|
... |
5.6 |
137.75 |
.2 |
154.16 |
.3 |
1.0000 |
137.75 |
5.6 |
138.45 |
1.1310 |
156.59 |
|
... |
5.6 |
138.45 |
.2 |
154.73 |
.3 |
.9800 |
135.68 |
5.6 |
139.29 |
1.1310 |
157.54 |
|
... |
5.6 |
139.29 |
.2 |
155.30 |
.3 |
.9200 |
128.14 |
5.6 |
140.50 |
1.1310 |
158.91 |
|
3.2 |
5.6 |
140.50 |
.2 |
160.86 |
.3 |
1.0000 |
145.02 |
5.5 |
145.67 |
1.1310 |
164.76 |
|
... |
5.5 |
145.67 |
.3 |
161.40 |
.3 |
1.0000 |
145.67 |
5.5 |
146.39 |
1.1310 |
165.57 |
|
... |
5.5 |
146.39 |
.3 |
161.95 |
.3 |
.9800 |
143.46 |
5.5 |
147.24 |
1.1310 |
166.53 |
|
... |
5.5 |
147.24 |
.3 |
162.50 |
.3 |
.9200 |
135.46 |
5.5 |
148.48 |
1.1310 |
167.93 |
|
3.3 |
5.5 |
148.48 |
.2 |
168.42 |
.3 |
1.0000 |
153.40 |
5.5 |
154.07 |
1.1310 |
174.26 |
|
... |
5.5 |
154.07 |
.3 |
168.96 |
.3 |
1.0000 |
154.07 |
5.5 |
154.74 |
1.1310 |
175.02 |
|
... |
5.5 |
154.74 |
.3 |
169.49 |
.3 |
.9800 |
151.65 |
5.5 |
155.61 |
1.1310 |
176.00 |
|
... |
5.5 |
155.61 |
.3 |
170.03 |
.3 |
.9200 |
143.16 |
5.5 |
156.83 |
1.1310 |
177.38 |
|
3.3 |
5.5 |
156.83 |
.2 |
176.19 |
.3 |
1.0000 |
162.03 |
5.5 |
162.68 |
1.1310 |
184.00 |
|
... |
5.5 |
162.68 |
.3 |
176.74 |
.3 |
1.0000 |
162.68 |
5.5 |
163.36 |
1.1310 |
184.77 |
|
... |
5.5 |
163.36 |
.3 |
177.29 |
.3 |
.9800 |
160.10 |
5.5 |
164.22 |
1.1310 |
185.73 |
|
... |
5.5 |
164.22 |
.3 |
177.83 |
.3 |
.9200 |
151.08 |
5.6 |
165.45 |
1.1310 |
187.13 |
|
3.3 |
5.6 |
165.45 |
.3 |
184.26 |
.3 |
1.0000 |
170.93 |
5.6 |
171.53 |
1.1310 |
194.00 |
|
... |
5.6 |
171.53 |
.3 |
184.79 |
.3 |
1.0000 |
171.53 |
5.6 |
172.22 |
1.1310 |
194.78 |
|
... |
5.6 |
172.22 |
.3 |
185.32 |
.3 |
.9800 |
168.77 |
5.6 |
173.02 |
1.1310 |
195.69 |
|
... |
5.6 |
173.02 |
.3 |
185.84 |
.3 |
.9200 |
159.18 |
5.6 |
174.29 |
1.1310 |
197.13 |
|
3.3 |
5.6 |
174.29 |
.3 |
192.52 |
.3 |
1.0000 |
180.06 |
5.6 |
180.63 |
1.1310 |
204.30 |
|
... |
5.6 |
180.63 |
.3 |
193.02 |
.3 |
1.0000 |
180.63 |
5.6 |
181.26 |
1.1310 |
205.01 |
|
... |
5.6 |
181.26 |
.3 |
193.52 |
.3 |
.9800 |
177.63 |
5.7 |
182.04 |
1.1310 |
205.89 |
|
... |
5.7 |
182.04 |
.3 |
194.01 |
.3 |
.9200 |
167.48 |
5.7 |
183.27 |
1.1310 |
207.29 |
|
3.3 |
5.7 |
183.27 |
.3 |
200.93 |
.3 |
1.0000 |
189.34 |
5.7 |
189.88 |
1.1310 |
214.76 |
1 This benefit became available on October 17, 1980, but was not paid in significant numbers until November 1983. 2 Fewer than 50. 3 Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
· Number in force, awarded, and terminated shown earlier.
· Annual average amount of awarded benefits shown earlier. Future quarterly average amount of awarded benefits derived from annual average amount by linear interpolation. (Amounts shown are at end-of-period rates.)
· Historical ratio of average terminated benefit to average benefit in force computed by division of corresponding figures where the average benefit in force at the beginning of the period has been adjusted to the end-of-period rate; future ratios projected based on historical trend.
· Historical average terminated benefit computed by dividing (a) number in force at beginning of period times average amount in force, plus number of awards times average amount awarded at beginning-of-period rate, minus number in force at end of period times average amount in force at beginning-of-period rates, by (b) number of terminations. Future average terminated benefit computed by applying applicable ratio to average benefit in force at beginning of period.
· Historical average amount in force from 1-A Table In Force Supplement. Future average amount in force at end of period computed by dividing (a) number in force at beginning of period times average amount in force at end-of-period rate, plus number of awards times average amount awarded at end-of-period rate, minus number of terminations times average terminated benefit at end-of-period rate, by (b) number in force at end of period.
· Historical ratio of average amount in current-payment status to average benefit in force computed by division of corresponding figures; future ratios projected based on historical trend.
· Historical average amount in current-payment status from 1-A Table Current-Payment Supplement; future amounts computed by applying applicable ratio to average benefit in force.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001