Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Calendar period |
In force beginning of period |
Awards during period |
Terminations during period |
In force end of period |
Current-payment status end of period |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8.0 |
428.1 |
$62.15 |
148.7 |
$69.85 |
107.7 |
1.0277 |
$68.98 |
469.1 |
$67.56 |
0.9979 |
$67.42 |
|
6.4 |
469.1 |
67.56 |
147.4 |
76.52 |
125.2 |
1.0179 |
73.17 |
491.3 |
72.95 |
1.0005 |
72.98 |
|
5.9 |
491.3 |
72.95 |
151.9 |
83.96 |
130.4 |
1.0123 |
78.21 |
512.8 |
79.00 |
1.0013 |
79.10 |
|
6.5 |
512.8 |
79.00 |
130.2 |
92.63 |
130.4 |
1.0262 |
86.34 |
512.6 |
85.73 |
1.0044 |
86.11 |
|
9.9 |
512.6 |
85.73 |
113.2 |
105.19 |
131.6 |
1.0328 |
97.31 |
494.2 |
95.88 |
1.0039 |
96.26 |
|
14.3 |
494.2 |
95.88 |
108.5 |
113.48 |
123.1 |
1.0159 |
111.33 |
479.6 |
110.02 |
1.0041 |
110.48 |
|
11.2 |
479.6 |
110.02 |
95.6 |
113.59 |
127.9 |
.9960 |
121.86 |
447.3 |
120.77 |
1.0070 |
121.62 |
|
7.4 |
447.3 |
120.77 |
77.8 |
120.09 |
136.8 |
.9936 |
128.87 |
388.3 |
128.21 |
1.0080 |
129.24 |
|
3.5 |
388.3 |
128.21 |
80.1 |
123.71 |
139.2 |
1.0608 |
140.77 |
329.2 |
127.10 |
1.0163 |
129.17 |
|
3.5 |
329.2 |
127.10 |
81.8 |
124.17 |
85.7 |
1.0356 |
136.23 |
325.4 |
128.46 |
1.0192 |
130.92 |
|
3.1 |
325.4 |
128.46 |
83.5 |
126.69 |
80.8 |
1.0428 |
138.10 |
328.1 |
129.59 |
1.0231 |
132.58 |
|
1.3 |
328.1 |
129.59 |
82.4 |
127.01 |
86.1 |
1.0627 |
139.51 |
324.4 |
128.01 |
1.0254 |
131.26 |
|
4.2 |
324.4 |
128.01 |
76.5 |
133.47 |
84.8 |
1.0805 |
144.12 |
316.0 |
130.84 |
1.0301 |
134.77 |
|
4.0 |
316.0 |
130.84 |
73.4 |
136.79 |
82.6 |
1.0760 |
146.42 |
306.9 |
133.95 |
1.0335 |
138.44 |
|
4.7 |
306.9 |
133.95 |
68.7 |
143.76 |
77.3 |
1.0757 |
150.87 |
298.3 |
138.90 |
1.0382 |
144.20 |
|
5.4 |
298.3 |
138.90 |
69.2 |
148.76 |
73.9 |
1.0982 |
160.77 |
293.6 |
144.16 |
1.0401 |
149.94 |
|
3.7 |
293.6 |
144.16 |
72.4 |
151.75 |
71.9 |
1.1107 |
166.04 |
294.1 |
146.99 |
1.0425 |
153.23 |
|
3.0 |
294.1 |
146.99 |
77.9 |
151.64 |
71.4 |
1.1155 |
168.89 |
300.6 |
148.18 |
1.0459 |
154.98 |
|
2.6 |
300.6 |
148.18 |
74.5 |
156.53 |
71.7 |
1.1276 |
171.43 |
303.4 |
148.90 |
1.0481 |
156.07 |
|
2.8 |
303.4 |
148.90 |
69.4 |
164.94 |
70.1 |
1.1169 |
170.96 |
302.7 |
151.71 |
1.0521 |
159.61 |
|
2.6 |
302.7 |
151.71 |
63.0 |
175.12 |
69.8 |
1.1276 |
175.52 |
295.9 |
155.17 |
1.0541 |
163.56 |
|
2.9 |
295.9 |
155.17 |
56.8 |
183.05 |
67.0 |
1.1095 |
177.15 |
285.8 |
160.56 |
1.0674 |
171.39 |
|
2.1 |
285.8 |
160.56 |
50.5 |
192.07 |
66.6 |
1.1107 |
182.08 |
269.6 |
164.88 |
1.0722 |
176.78 |
|
1.3 |
269.6 |
164.88 |
47.4 |
198.82 |
61.0 |
1.1262 |
188.10 |
256.0 |
167.99 |
1.0827 |
181.88 |
|
1 2.5 |
256.0 |
167.99 |
46.0 |
207.01 |
59.7 |
1.1365 |
195.51 |
242.3 |
172.99 |
1.0931 |
189.09 |
|
3.5 |
242.3 |
172.99 |
43.7 |
219.55 |
57.3 |
1.1416 |
204.40 |
228.7 |
180.62 |
1.0985 |
198.42 |
|
... |
228.7 |
180.62 |
11.3 |
222.48 |
13.6 |
1.1930 |
215.49 |
226.5 |
180.62 |
1.0934 |
197.50 |
|
... |
226.5 |
180.62 |
11.3 |
223.25 |
13.5 |
1.1379 |
205.52 |
224.3 |
181.27 |
1.0932 |
198.16 |
|
... |
224.3 |
181.27 |
11.3 |
224.02 |
13.4 |
1.0995 |
199.31 |
222.2 |
182.35 |
1.0926 |
199.25 |
|
2.8 |
222.2 |
182.35 |
10.6 |
231.06 |
13.3 |
1.1318 |
212.17 |
219.5 |
188.09 |
1.0924 |
205.46 |
|
... |
219.5 |
188.09 |
11.7 |
231.66 |
13.2 |
1.1924 |
224.28 |
218.0 |
188.23 |
1.0926 |
205.65 |
|
... |
218.0 |
188.23 |
11.7 |
232.79 |
13.1 |
1.1390 |
214.39 |
216.5 |
189.05 |
1.0924 |
206.51 |
|
... |
216.5 |
189.05 |
11.7 |
233.91 |
13.1 |
1.1019 |
208.31 |
215.1 |
190.31 |
1.0919 |
207.81 |
|
2.9 |
215.1 |
190.31 |
10.9 |
241.85 |
13.0 |
1.1336 |
221.98 |
213.0 |
196.61 |
1.0917 |
214.64 |
|
... |
213.0 |
196.61 |
12.0 |
242.80 |
12.9 |
1.1925 |
234.46 |
212.1 |
196.92 |
1.0920 |
215.03 |
|
... |
212.1 |
196.92 |
12.0 |
244.16 |
12.9 |
1.1408 |
224.64 |
211.2 |
197.90 |
1.0918 |
216.08 |
|
... |
211.2 |
197.90 |
12.0 |
245.52 |
12.9 |
1.1046 |
218.61 |
210.3 |
199.35 |
1.0914 |
217.57 |
|
3.0 |
210.3 |
199.35 |
11.2 |
254.28 |
12.8 |
1.1355 |
233.16 |
208.7 |
206.27 |
1.0913 |
225.09 |
|
... |
208.7 |
206.27 |
12.4 |
255.72 |
12.8 |
1.1932 |
246.13 |
208.2 |
206.76 |
1.0915 |
225.68 |
|
... |
208.2 |
206.76 |
12.4 |
257.13 |
12.8 |
1.1430 |
236.33 |
207.8 |
207.94 |
1.0914 |
226.95 |
|
... |
207.8 |
207.94 |
12.4 |
258.54 |
12.8 |
1.1079 |
230.37 |
207.4 |
209.57 |
1.0910 |
228.65 |
|
3.1 |
207.4 |
209.57 |
11.6 |
267.97 |
12.8 |
1.1380 |
245.88 |
206.2 |
217.16 |
1.0909 |
236.89 |
|
... |
206.2 |
217.16 |
12.8 |
269.30 |
12.8 |
1.1943 |
259.34 |
206.3 |
217.79 |
1.0912 |
237.64 |
|
... |
206.3 |
217.79 |
12.8 |
270.60 |
12.8 |
1.1453 |
249.43 |
206.3 |
219.11 |
1.0910 |
239.06 |
|
... |
206.3 |
219.11 |
12.8 |
271.89 |
12.8 |
1.1109 |
243.41 |
206.3 |
220.88 |
1.0906 |
240.90 |
|
3.2 |
206.3 |
220.88 |
12.0 |
281.92 |
12.8 |
1.1401 |
259.88 |
205.5 |
229.13 |
1.0904 |
249.85 |
|
... |
205.5 |
229.13 |
13.2 |
282.81 |
12.8 |
1.1948 |
273.77 |
205.9 |
229.80 |
1.0907 |
250.64 |
|
... |
205.9 |
229.80 |
13.2 |
283.85 |
12.9 |
1.1471 |
263.61 |
206.2 |
231.16 |
1.0905 |
252.09 |
|
... |
206.2 |
231.16 |
13.2 |
284.89 |
12.9 |
1.1134 |
257.37 |
206.5 |
232.96 |
1.0901 |
253.95 |
|
3.3 |
206.5 |
232.96 |
12.4 |
295.39 |
13.0 |
1.1416 |
274.74 |
206.0 |
241.83 |
1.0899 |
263.56 |
|
... |
206.0 |
241.83 |
13.6 |
296.32 |
13.0 |
1.1949 |
288.96 |
206.6 |
242.46 |
1.0901 |
264.30 |
|
... |
206.6 |
242.46 |
13.6 |
297.25 |
13.0 |
1.1481 |
278.36 |
207.2 |
243.81 |
1.0899 |
265.72 |
|
... |
207.2 |
243.81 |
13.6 |
298.18 |
13.1 |
1.1149 |
271.82 |
207.8 |
245.61 |
1.0894 |
267.57 |
|
3.3 |
207.8 |
245.61 |
12.8 |
308.98 |
13.1 |
1.1424 |
289.85 |
207.4 |
254.85 |
1.0892 |
277.57 |
|
... |
207.4 |
254.85 |
14.0 |
309.84 |
13.2 |
1.1947 |
304.46 |
208.3 |
255.43 |
1.0893 |
278.24 |
|
... |
208.3 |
255.43 |
14.0 |
310.77 |
13.2 |
1.1486 |
293.38 |
209.1 |
256.74 |
1.0891 |
279.62 |
|
... |
209.1 |
256.74 |
14.0 |
311.71 |
13.3 |
1.1157 |
286.45 |
209.9 |
258.54 |
1.0886 |
281.44 |
|
3.3 |
209.9 |
258.54 |
13.2 |
322.98 |
13.3 |
1.1427 |
305.17 |
209.7 |
268.18 |
1.0883 |
291.87 |
|
... |
209.7 |
268.18 |
14.4 |
323.97 |
13.4 |
1.1940 |
320.21 |
210.8 |
268.70 |
1.0885 |
292.48 |
|
... |
210.8 |
268.70 |
14.4 |
324.93 |
13.5 |
1.1486 |
308.63 |
211.8 |
270.00 |
1.0882 |
293.83 |
|
... |
211.8 |
270.00 |
14.4 |
325.89 |
13.5 |
1.1162 |
301.37 |
212.7 |
271.80 |
1.0877 |
295.65 |
|
3.3 |
212.7 |
271.80 |
13.5 |
337.63 |
13.6 |
1.1425 |
320.78 |
212.7 |
281.86 |
1.0875 |
306.51 |
|
... |
212.7 |
281.86 |
14.9 |
338.74 |
13.6 |
1.1934 |
336.36 |
213.9 |
282.35 |
1.0876 |
307.09 |
|
... |
213.9 |
282.35 |
14.9 |
339.80 |
13.7 |
1.1484 |
324.25 |
215.1 |
283.66 |
1.0874 |
308.44 |
|
... |
215.1 |
283.66 |
14.9 |
340.86 |
13.8 |
1.1162 |
316.63 |
216.2 |
285.49 |
1.0869 |
310.30 |
|
3.3 |
216.2 |
285.49 |
14.0 |
353.19 |
13.9 |
1.1424 |
336.90 |
216.3 |
296.01 |
1.0866 |
321.66 |
1 Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources: See sources at end of table III.D5.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001