Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Calendar period |
In force beginning of period |
Awards during period |
Terminations during period |
In force end of period |
Current-payment status end of period |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8.0 |
0.6 |
$57.05 |
0.2 |
$61.07 |
0.2 |
0.9948 |
$61.29 |
0.6 |
$61.48 |
1.0020 |
$61.60 |
|
6.4 |
.6 |
61.48 |
.2 |
64.21 |
.2 |
1.0274 |
67.21 |
.6 |
64.57 |
1.0003 |
64.59 |
|
5.9 |
.6 |
64.57 |
1.5 |
80.86 |
.4 |
1.9901 |
136.08 |
1.7 |
77.36 |
1.0048 |
77.73 |
|
6.5 |
1.7 |
77.36 |
1.5 |
76.83 |
.6 |
.9746 |
80.29 |
2.6 |
79.62 |
.9943 |
79.17 |
|
9.9 |
2.6 |
79.62 |
1.0 |
87.60 |
.8 |
1.0784 |
94.37 |
2.7 |
85.39 |
.9851 |
84.12 |
|
14.3 |
2.7 |
85.39 |
1.0 |
87.86 |
.8 |
1.0164 |
99.20 |
2.9 |
94.02 |
.9771 |
91.87 |
|
11.2 |
2.9 |
94.02 |
.9 |
96.36 |
.9 |
1.0119 |
105.79 |
2.9 |
101.65 |
.9856 |
100.19 |
|
7.4 |
2.9 |
101.65 |
.8 |
104.59 |
.8 |
.9308 |
101.62 |
2.9 |
104.49 |
.9742 |
101.79 |
|
3.5 |
2.9 |
104.49 |
.9 |
110.22 |
.9 |
1.1065 |
119.66 |
2.9 |
105.42 |
.9643 |
101.66 |
|
3.5 |
2.9 |
105.42 |
.9 |
107.82 |
.9 |
1.0931 |
119.27 |
3.0 |
105.77 |
.9549 |
101.00 |
|
3.1 |
3.0 |
105.77 |
.9 |
121.42 |
.8 |
1.1449 |
124.85 |
3.1 |
108.36 |
.9454 |
102.44 |
|
1.3 |
3.1 |
108.36 |
.9 |
122.78 |
1.0 |
1.1378 |
124.90 |
3.0 |
108.95 |
.9295 |
101.27 |
|
4.2 |
3.0 |
108.95 |
.9 |
123.59 |
.9 |
1.0765 |
122.21 |
3.1 |
114.27 |
.9527 |
108.86 |
|
4.0 |
3.1 |
114.27 |
.9 |
113.38 |
.9 |
1.1146 |
132.46 |
3.0 |
114.82 |
.9194 |
105.57 |
|
4.7 |
3.0 |
114.82 |
.8 |
124.97 |
.9 |
1.1296 |
135.79 |
3.0 |
118.64 |
.9455 |
112.18 |
|
5.4 |
3.0 |
118.64 |
.7 |
134.22 |
.9 |
1.1208 |
140.16 |
2.8 |
125.17 |
.9434 |
118.09 |
|
3.7 |
2.8 |
125.17 |
.7 |
143.78 |
.8 |
1.1671 |
151.49 |
2.7 |
130.40 |
.9725 |
126.82 |
|
3.0 |
2.7 |
130.40 |
.7 |
137.73 |
.8 |
1.1464 |
153.98 |
2.6 |
132.49 |
1.0195 |
135.08 |
|
2.6 |
2.6 |
132.49 |
.8 |
139.41 |
.7 |
1.0817 |
147.04 |
2.7 |
135.25 |
1.0348 |
139.96 |
|
2.8 |
2.7 |
135.25 |
.8 |
134.24 |
.7 |
.9378 |
130.39 |
2.7 |
139.98 |
1.0378 |
145.27 |
|
2.6 |
2.7 |
139.98 |
.8 |
153.92 |
.7 |
1.0065 |
144.55 |
2.8 |
146.23 |
1.0663 |
155.92 |
|
2.9 |
2.8 |
146.23 |
.8 |
169.67 |
.7 |
1.0786 |
162.29 |
2.9 |
152.72 |
1.0669 |
162.94 |
|
2.1 |
2.9 |
152.72 |
.7 |
161.42 |
.7 |
1.0300 |
160.61 |
2.8 |
156.11 |
1.0747 |
167.77 |
|
1.3 |
2.8 |
156.11 |
.8 |
174.83 |
.7 |
1.0352 |
163.71 |
2.9 |
161.12 |
1.0601 |
170.81 |
|
1 2.5 |
2.9 |
161.12 |
.8 |
178.89 |
.7 |
1.0068 |
166.12 |
3.0 |
168.56 |
1.0589 |
178.48 |
|
3.5 |
3.0 |
168.56 |
.9 |
187.80 |
.8 |
.9658 |
168.50 |
3.1 |
180.10 |
1.0448 |
188.16 |
|
... |
3.1 |
180.10 |
.2 |
203.08 |
.2 |
1.1000 |
198.11 |
3.2 |
180.64 |
1.0519 |
190.02 |
|
... |
3.2 |
180.64 |
.2 |
199.57 |
.2 |
1.1000 |
198.70 |
3.2 |
180.88 |
1.0519 |
190.28 |
|
... |
3.2 |
180.88 |
.2 |
196.06 |
.2 |
1.0500 |
189.92 |
3.2 |
181.38 |
1.0519 |
190.80 |
|
2.8 |
3.2 |
181.38 |
.2 |
197.94 |
.2 |
1.0500 |
195.80 |
3.2 |
186.66 |
1.0519 |
196.35 |
|
... |
3.2 |
186.66 |
.2 |
199.01 |
.2 |
1.1000 |
205.32 |
3.3 |
186.42 |
1.0519 |
196.11 |
|
... |
3.3 |
186.42 |
.2 |
200.07 |
.2 |
1.1000 |
205.06 |
3.3 |
186.27 |
1.0519 |
195.94 |
|
... |
3.3 |
186.27 |
.2 |
201.14 |
.2 |
1.0500 |
195.58 |
3.3 |
186.68 |
1.0519 |
196.38 |
|
2.9 |
3.3 |
186.68 |
.2 |
208.07 |
.2 |
1.0500 |
201.72 |
3.4 |
192.62 |
1.0519 |
202.63 |
|
... |
3.4 |
192.62 |
.2 |
209.26 |
.2 |
1.1000 |
211.89 |
3.4 |
192.65 |
1.0519 |
202.65 |
|
... |
3.4 |
192.65 |
.2 |
210.46 |
.2 |
1.1000 |
211.91 |
3.4 |
192.74 |
1.0519 |
202.75 |
|
... |
3.4 |
192.74 |
.2 |
211.66 |
.2 |
1.0500 |
202.37 |
3.5 |
193.46 |
1.0519 |
203.51 |
|
3.0 |
3.5 |
193.46 |
.2 |
219.24 |
.2 |
1.0500 |
209.24 |
3.5 |
199.90 |
1.0519 |
210.29 |
|
... |
3.5 |
199.90 |
.2 |
220.16 |
.2 |
1.1000 |
219.89 |
3.5 |
200.13 |
1.0519 |
210.53 |
|
... |
3.5 |
200.13 |
.2 |
221.08 |
.2 |
1.1000 |
220.14 |
3.5 |
200.45 |
1.0519 |
210.86 |
|
... |
3.5 |
200.45 |
.2 |
222.00 |
.2 |
1.0500 |
210.47 |
3.6 |
201.33 |
1.0519 |
211.79 |
|
3.1 |
3.6 |
201.33 |
.2 |
229.83 |
.2 |
1.0500 |
217.97 |
3.6 |
208.32 |
1.0519 |
219.15 |
|
... |
3.6 |
208.32 |
.3 |
230.69 |
.2 |
1.1000 |
229.16 |
3.6 |
208.65 |
1.0519 |
219.49 |
|
... |
3.6 |
208.65 |
.3 |
231.54 |
.2 |
1.1000 |
229.51 |
3.7 |
208.99 |
1.0519 |
219.85 |
|
... |
3.7 |
208.99 |
.3 |
232.39 |
.2 |
1.0500 |
219.44 |
3.7 |
210.02 |
1.0519 |
220.93 |
|
3.2 |
3.7 |
210.02 |
.2 |
240.71 |
.2 |
1.0500 |
227.60 |
3.7 |
217.58 |
1.0519 |
228.89 |
|
... |
3.7 |
217.58 |
.3 |
241.53 |
.2 |
1.1000 |
239.34 |
3.8 |
217.97 |
1.0519 |
229.29 |
|
... |
3.8 |
217.97 |
.3 |
242.34 |
.2 |
1.1000 |
239.76 |
3.8 |
218.30 |
1.0519 |
229.65 |
|
... |
3.8 |
218.30 |
.3 |
243.16 |
.2 |
1.0500 |
229.22 |
3.8 |
219.36 |
1.0519 |
230.75 |
|
3.3 |
3.8 |
219.36 |
.2 |
252.03 |
.2 |
1.0500 |
237.95 |
3.9 |
227.57 |
1.0519 |
239.39 |
|
... |
3.9 |
227.57 |
.3 |
252.83 |
.2 |
1.1000 |
250.33 |
3.9 |
228.04 |
1.0519 |
239.89 |
|
... |
3.9 |
228.04 |
.3 |
253.63 |
.2 |
1.1000 |
250.84 |
3.9 |
228.45 |
1.0519 |
240.32 |
|
... |
3.9 |
228.45 |
.3 |
254.43 |
.2 |
1.0500 |
239.87 |
4.0 |
229.55 |
1.0519 |
241.47 |
|
3.3 |
4.0 |
229.55 |
.3 |
263.66 |
.2 |
1.0500 |
249.00 |
4.0 |
238.12 |
1.0519 |
250.49 |
|
... |
4.0 |
238.12 |
.3 |
264.47 |
.2 |
1.1000 |
261.93 |
4.0 |
238.54 |
1.0519 |
250.93 |
|
... |
4.0 |
238.54 |
.3 |
265.29 |
.2 |
1.1000 |
262.39 |
4.1 |
238.90 |
1.0519 |
251.31 |
|
... |
4.1 |
238.90 |
.3 |
266.11 |
.2 |
1.0500 |
250.85 |
4.1 |
240.04 |
1.0519 |
252.51 |
|
3.3 |
4.1 |
240.04 |
.3 |
275.73 |
.2 |
1.0500 |
260.38 |
4.1 |
249.07 |
1.0519 |
262.01 |
|
... |
4.1 |
249.07 |
.3 |
276.52 |
.2 |
1.1000 |
273.97 |
4.2 |
249.49 |
1.0519 |
262.45 |
|
... |
4.2 |
249.49 |
.3 |
277.31 |
.2 |
1.1000 |
274.44 |
4.2 |
249.85 |
1.0519 |
262.83 |
|
... |
4.2 |
249.85 |
.3 |
278.10 |
.3 |
1.0500 |
262.34 |
4.2 |
251.02 |
1.0519 |
264.06 |
|
3.3 |
4.2 |
251.02 |
.3 |
288.09 |
.3 |
1.0500 |
272.29 |
4.3 |
260.37 |
1.0519 |
273.90 |
|
... |
4.3 |
260.37 |
.3 |
288.83 |
.3 |
1.1000 |
286.41 |
4.3 |
260.85 |
1.0519 |
274.40 |
|
... |
4.3 |
260.85 |
.3 |
289.58 |
.3 |
1.1000 |
286.94 |
4.3 |
261.27 |
1.0519 |
274.85 |
|
... |
4.3 |
261.27 |
.3 |
290.32 |
.3 |
1.0500 |
274.34 |
4.4 |
262.52 |
1.0519 |
276.16 |
|
3.3 |
4.4 |
262.52 |
.3 |
300.67 |
.3 |
1.0500 |
284.77 |
4.4 |
272.26 |
1.0519 |
286.40 |
1 Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources: See sources at end of table III.D5.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001