Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Calendar period |
In force beginning of period |
Awards during period |
Terminations during period |
In force end of period |
Current-payment status end of period |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8.0 |
368.2 |
$60.19 |
116.7 |
$66.43 |
80.8 |
1.0025 |
$65.17 |
404.0 |
$65.39 |
0.9962 |
$65.14 |
|
6.4 |
404.0 |
65.39 |
110.7 |
73.71 |
93.9 |
.9943 |
69.18 |
420.8 |
70.75 |
.9993 |
70.70 |
|
5.9 |
420.8 |
70.75 |
113.5 |
81.16 |
98.1 |
.9857 |
73.85 |
436.2 |
76.79 |
1.0003 |
76.81 |
|
6.5 |
436.2 |
76.79 |
93.3 |
89.61 |
96.5 |
.9953 |
81.40 |
433.0 |
83.55 |
1.0036 |
83.85 |
|
9.9 |
433.0 |
83.55 |
79.6 |
101.62 |
97.0 |
1.0059 |
92.36 |
415.6 |
93.55 |
1.0035 |
93.88 |
|
14.3 |
415.6 |
93.55 |
74.9 |
106.09 |
89.7 |
.9756 |
104.31 |
400.8 |
107.36 |
1.0037 |
107.76 |
|
11.2 |
400.8 |
107.36 |
64.3 |
100.45 |
95.8 |
.9544 |
113.94 |
369.2 |
117.61 |
1.0067 |
118.40 |
|
7.4 |
369.2 |
117.61 |
45.5 |
97.31 |
104.3 |
.9543 |
120.54 |
310.4 |
124.09 |
1.0075 |
125.02 |
|
3.5 |
310.4 |
124.09 |
43.7 |
99.60 |
105.8 |
1.0503 |
134.90 |
248.3 |
120.60 |
1.0157 |
122.49 |
|
3.5 |
248.3 |
120.60 |
46.4 |
99.50 |
52.2 |
.9641 |
120.34 |
242.5 |
120.94 |
1.0173 |
123.03 |
|
3.1 |
242.5 |
120.94 |
48.5 |
100.03 |
46.7 |
.9489 |
118.31 |
244.4 |
121.01 |
1.0207 |
123.51 |
|
1.3 |
244.4 |
121.01 |
47.7 |
99.33 |
52.0 |
.9928 |
121.71 |
240.1 |
118.15 |
1.0223 |
120.79 |
|
4.2 |
240.1 |
118.15 |
43.3 |
102.76 |
51.5 |
1.0072 |
124.00 |
231.9 |
119.37 |
1.0271 |
122.60 |
|
4.0 |
231.9 |
119.37 |
42.6 |
104.89 |
49.9 |
.9668 |
120.02 |
224.6 |
120.97 |
1.0304 |
124.65 |
|
4.7 |
224.6 |
120.97 |
40.2 |
109.75 |
45.3 |
.9331 |
118.18 |
219.6 |
124.79 |
1.0360 |
129.28 |
|
5.4 |
219.6 |
124.79 |
41.8 |
114.28 |
43.2 |
.9402 |
123.67 |
218.3 |
129.06 |
1.0376 |
133.91 |
|
3.7 |
218.3 |
129.06 |
45.5 |
117.00 |
42.7 |
.9298 |
124.44 |
221.1 |
131.15 |
1.0401 |
136.41 |
|
3.0 |
221.1 |
131.15 |
49.8 |
116.25 |
42.6 |
.9352 |
126.33 |
228.3 |
131.63 |
1.0430 |
137.29 |
|
2.6 |
228.3 |
131.63 |
46.3 |
118.37 |
42.6 |
.9874 |
133.35 |
231.9 |
131.70 |
1.0452 |
137.65 |
|
2.8 |
231.9 |
131.70 |
42.7 |
121.77 |
41.9 |
.9743 |
131.91 |
232.8 |
133.56 |
1.0501 |
140.25 |
|
2.6 |
232.8 |
133.56 |
37.9 |
128.21 |
42.2 |
.9803 |
134.33 |
228.4 |
136.12 |
1.0516 |
143.15 |
|
2.9 |
228.4 |
136.12 |
33.0 |
132.92 |
40.9 |
.9478 |
132.76 |
220.5 |
140.75 |
1.0420 |
146.66 |
|
2.1 |
220.5 |
140.75 |
25.5 |
136.96 |
40.6 |
.9591 |
137.83 |
205.4 |
144.21 |
1.0441 |
150.57 |
|
1.3 |
205.4 |
144.21 |
23.0 |
142.38 |
35.7 |
.9774 |
142.78 |
192.7 |
146.37 |
1.0517 |
153.94 |
|
1 2.5 |
192.7 |
146.37 |
21.8 |
148.00 |
34.4 |
1.0016 |
150.12 |
180.1 |
149.72 |
1.0633 |
159.20 |
|
3.5 |
180.1 |
149.72 |
19.7 |
160.09 |
31.9 |
1.0006 |
155.05 |
167.8 |
155.68 |
1.0701 |
166.60 |
|
... |
167.8 |
155.68 |
5.1 |
162.22 |
7.4 |
1.1000 |
171.25 |
165.6 |
155.19 |
1.0609 |
164.63 |
|
... |
165.6 |
155.19 |
5.1 |
162.87 |
7.3 |
.9800 |
152.08 |
163.4 |
155.57 |
1.0609 |
165.03 |
|
... |
163.4 |
155.57 |
5.1 |
163.51 |
7.2 |
.9000 |
140.01 |
161.3 |
156.51 |
1.0609 |
166.04 |
|
2.8 |
161.3 |
156.51 |
4.8 |
168.75 |
7.1 |
.9700 |
156.09 |
159.0 |
161.37 |
1.0609 |
171.19 |
|
... |
159.0 |
161.37 |
5.3 |
169.57 |
7.0 |
1.1000 |
177.50 |
157.3 |
160.92 |
1.0609 |
170.72 |
|
... |
157.3 |
160.92 |
5.3 |
170.39 |
7.0 |
.9800 |
157.71 |
155.7 |
161.39 |
1.0609 |
171.21 |
|
... |
155.7 |
161.39 |
5.3 |
171.21 |
6.9 |
.9000 |
145.25 |
154.1 |
162.45 |
1.0609 |
172.34 |
|
2.9 |
154.1 |
162.45 |
5.0 |
177.02 |
6.8 |
.9700 |
162.17 |
152.3 |
167.73 |
1.0609 |
177.94 |
|
... |
152.3 |
167.73 |
5.5 |
178.02 |
6.7 |
1.1000 |
184.50 |
151.1 |
167.36 |
1.0609 |
177.54 |
|
... |
151.1 |
167.36 |
5.5 |
179.01 |
6.7 |
.9800 |
164.01 |
149.9 |
167.94 |
1.0609 |
178.16 |
|
... |
149.9 |
167.94 |
5.5 |
180.01 |
6.6 |
.9000 |
151.15 |
148.8 |
169.14 |
1.0609 |
179.43 |
|
3.0 |
148.8 |
169.14 |
5.2 |
186.44 |
6.6 |
.9700 |
169.00 |
147.4 |
174.89 |
1.0609 |
185.53 |
|
... |
147.4 |
174.89 |
5.7 |
187.48 |
6.5 |
1.1000 |
192.38 |
146.5 |
174.60 |
1.0609 |
185.22 |
|
... |
146.5 |
174.60 |
5.7 |
188.52 |
6.5 |
.9800 |
171.11 |
145.7 |
175.30 |
1.0609 |
185.97 |
|
... |
145.7 |
175.30 |
5.7 |
189.56 |
6.5 |
.9000 |
157.77 |
145.0 |
176.64 |
1.0609 |
187.39 |
|
3.1 |
145.0 |
176.64 |
5.3 |
196.51 |
6.4 |
.9700 |
176.67 |
143.9 |
182.91 |
1.0609 |
194.04 |
|
... |
143.9 |
182.91 |
5.9 |
197.46 |
6.4 |
1.1000 |
201.21 |
143.4 |
182.70 |
1.0609 |
193.81 |
|
... |
143.4 |
182.70 |
5.9 |
198.42 |
6.4 |
.9800 |
179.04 |
142.9 |
183.51 |
1.0609 |
194.67 |
|
... |
142.9 |
183.51 |
5.9 |
199.37 |
6.3 |
.9000 |
165.16 |
142.5 |
184.98 |
1.0609 |
196.24 |
|
3.2 |
142.5 |
184.98 |
5.5 |
206.74 |
6.3 |
.9700 |
185.19 |
141.7 |
191.79 |
1.0609 |
203.46 |
|
... |
141.7 |
191.79 |
6.1 |
207.50 |
6.3 |
1.1000 |
210.97 |
141.5 |
191.62 |
1.0609 |
203.28 |
|
... |
141.5 |
191.62 |
6.1 |
208.26 |
6.3 |
.9800 |
187.79 |
141.3 |
192.51 |
1.0609 |
204.22 |
|
... |
141.3 |
192.51 |
6.1 |
209.02 |
6.3 |
.9000 |
173.26 |
141.2 |
194.08 |
1.0609 |
205.89 |
|
3.3 |
141.2 |
194.08 |
5.7 |
216.71 |
6.3 |
.9700 |
194.49 |
140.6 |
201.43 |
1.0609 |
213.69 |
|
... |
140.6 |
201.43 |
6.3 |
217.39 |
6.3 |
1.1000 |
221.58 |
140.7 |
201.25 |
1.0609 |
213.49 |
|
... |
140.7 |
201.25 |
6.3 |
218.07 |
6.3 |
.9800 |
197.22 |
140.7 |
202.18 |
1.0609 |
214.48 |
|
... |
140.7 |
202.18 |
6.3 |
218.76 |
6.3 |
.9000 |
181.96 |
140.7 |
203.82 |
1.0609 |
216.22 |
|
3.3 |
140.7 |
203.82 |
5.9 |
226.68 |
6.2 |
.9700 |
204.25 |
140.4 |
211.52 |
1.0609 |
224.39 |
|
... |
140.4 |
211.52 |
6.5 |
227.37 |
6.2 |
1.1000 |
232.67 |
140.6 |
211.31 |
1.0609 |
224.17 |
|
... |
140.6 |
211.31 |
6.5 |
228.05 |
6.3 |
.9800 |
207.09 |
140.8 |
212.27 |
1.0609 |
225.19 |
|
... |
140.8 |
212.27 |
6.5 |
228.74 |
6.3 |
.9000 |
191.04 |
141.0 |
213.97 |
1.0609 |
226.99 |
|
3.3 |
141.0 |
213.97 |
6.1 |
236.99 |
6.3 |
.9700 |
214.42 |
140.8 |
222.03 |
1.0609 |
235.54 |
|
... |
140.8 |
222.03 |
6.7 |
237.69 |
6.3 |
1.1000 |
244.23 |
141.2 |
221.78 |
1.0609 |
235.28 |
|
... |
141.2 |
221.78 |
6.7 |
238.40 |
6.3 |
.9800 |
217.35 |
141.6 |
222.76 |
1.0609 |
236.32 |
|
... |
141.6 |
222.76 |
6.7 |
239.10 |
6.3 |
.9000 |
200.49 |
141.9 |
224.52 |
1.0609 |
238.18 |
|
3.3 |
141.9 |
224.52 |
6.2 |
247.72 |
6.3 |
.9700 |
224.99 |
141.9 |
232.95 |
1.0609 |
247.13 |
|
... |
141.9 |
232.95 |
6.9 |
248.50 |
6.3 |
1.1000 |
256.25 |
142.4 |
232.67 |
1.0609 |
246.83 |
|
... |
142.4 |
232.67 |
6.9 |
249.28 |
6.3 |
.9800 |
228.01 |
142.9 |
233.67 |
1.0609 |
247.89 |
|
... |
142.9 |
233.67 |
6.9 |
250.06 |
6.4 |
.9000 |
210.30 |
143.4 |
235.49 |
1.0609 |
249.82 |
|
3.3 |
143.4 |
235.49 |
6.4 |
259.12 |
6.4 |
.9700 |
235.99 |
143.5 |
244.32 |
1.0609 |
259.18 |
1 Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources: See sources at end of table III.D5.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001