Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Calendar period |
In force beginning of period |
Awards during period |
Terminations during period |
In force end of period |
Current-payment status end of period |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8.0 |
2,251.3 |
$205.56 |
592.0 |
$241.21 |
339.8 |
1.0246 |
$227.47 |
2,503.6 |
$225.77 |
1.0005 |
$225.88 |
|
6.4 |
2,503.6 |
225.77 |
551.5 |
267.45 |
368.6 |
1.0482 |
251.80 |
2,686.4 |
245.02 |
1.0006 |
245.16 |
|
5.9 |
2,686.4 |
245.02 |
568.9 |
292.28 |
404.9 |
1.0061 |
261.05 |
2,850.4 |
265.04 |
1.0005 |
265.18 |
|
6.5 |
2,850.4 |
265.04 |
490.8 |
324.33 |
443.4 |
.9440 |
266.46 |
2,897.8 |
288.05 |
1.0007 |
288.24 |
|
9.9 |
2,897.8 |
288.05 |
440.5 |
362.95 |
455.7 |
.9552 |
302.39 |
2,882.6 |
321.86 |
1.0005 |
322.01 |
|
14.3 |
2,882.6 |
321.86 |
420.3 |
398.85 |
434.6 |
.9496 |
349.36 |
2,868.3 |
370.59 |
1.0004 |
370.73 |
|
11.2 |
2,868.3 |
370.59 |
381.0 |
429.12 |
460.1 |
.9404 |
387.54 |
2,789.1 |
412.96 |
1.0003 |
413.10 |
|
7.4 |
2,789.1 |
412.96 |
336.1 |
443.74 |
502.1 |
.9597 |
425.64 |
2,623.1 |
440.77 |
.9995 |
440.55 |
|
3.5 |
2,623.1 |
440.77 |
428.5 |
446.46 |
462.9 |
.7376 |
336.49 |
2,588.7 |
455.82 |
1.0007 |
456.13 |
|
3.5 |
2,588.7 |
455.82 |
410.0 |
458.44 |
381.6 |
.8599 |
405.67 |
2,617.1 |
470.22 |
1.0009 |
470.62 |
|
3.1 |
2,617.1 |
470.22 |
416.1 |
473.65 |
352.9 |
.8902 |
431.57 |
2,680.3 |
483.40 |
1.0009 |
483.82 |
|
1.3 |
2,680.3 |
483.40 |
424.9 |
478.30 |
351.4 |
.9898 |
484.70 |
2,753.8 |
487.31 |
1.0010 |
487.82 |
|
4.2 |
2,753.8 |
487.31 |
420.3 |
508.04 |
360.9 |
.9911 |
503.23 |
2,813.2 |
507.32 |
1.0017 |
508.17 |
|
4.0 |
2,813.2 |
507.32 |
415.3 |
538.08 |
365.1 |
.9948 |
524.87 |
2,863.4 |
528.38 |
1.0020 |
529.46 |
|
4.7 |
2,863.4 |
528.38 |
430.7 |
565.49 |
357.6 |
.9856 |
545.27 |
2,936.4 |
554.89 |
1.0019 |
555.94 |
|
5.4 |
2,936.4 |
554.89 |
472.1 |
597.61 |
354.1 |
.9950 |
581.94 |
3,054.5 |
586.39 |
1.0013 |
587.18 |
|
3.7 |
3,054.5 |
586.39 |
540.8 |
614.80 |
355.5 |
.9965 |
605.95 |
3,239.8 |
608.67 |
1.0010 |
609.29 |
|
3.0 |
3,239.8 |
608.67 |
642.1 |
619.96 |
367.8 |
.9914 |
621.53 |
3,514.1 |
625.29 |
1.0012 |
626.02 |
|
2.6 |
3,514.1 |
625.29 |
637.4 |
638.37 |
376.6 |
.9982 |
640.41 |
3,774.9 |
640.62 |
1.0015 |
641.61 |
|
2.8 |
3,774.9 |
640.62 |
631.9 |
666.19 |
387.6 |
.9949 |
655.18 |
4,019.2 |
660.10 |
1.0018 |
661.32 |
|
2.6 |
4,019.2 |
660.10 |
645.6 |
693.79 |
411.4 |
.9876 |
668.88 |
4,253.5 |
680.40 |
1.0019 |
681.70 |
|
2.9 |
4,253.5 |
680.40 |
624.3 |
714.40 |
410.5 |
.9942 |
696.05 |
4,467.3 |
702.30 |
1.0022 |
703.87 |
|
2.1 |
4,467.3 |
702.30 |
587.7 |
734.09 |
463.7 |
.9856 |
706.74 |
4,591.3 |
720.19 |
1.0018 |
721.48 |
|
1.3 |
4,591.3 |
720.19 |
608.4 |
747.42 |
410.0 |
1.0001 |
729.59 |
4,789.6 |
731.79 |
1.0017 |
733.00 |
|
1 2.5 |
4,789.6 |
731.79 |
620.6 |
782.90 |
436.4 |
1.0093 |
756.34 |
4,973.8 |
752.62 |
1.0019 |
754.04 |
|
3.5 |
4,973.8 |
752.62 |
621.3 |
835.44 |
458.7 |
1.0281 |
800.84 |
5,136.4 |
784.32 |
1.0026 |
786.37 |
|
... |
5,136.4 |
784.32 |
161.7 |
852.44 |
114.4 |
1.0660 |
836.11 |
5,183.7 |
785.30 |
1.0021 |
786.93 |
|
... |
5,183.7 |
785.30 |
161.7 |
857.81 |
112.2 |
1.0085 |
791.97 |
5,233.2 |
787.40 |
1.0021 |
789.02 |
|
... |
5,233.2 |
787.40 |
161.7 |
863.18 |
112.2 |
1.0089 |
794.39 |
5,282.8 |
789.57 |
1.0020 |
791.17 |
|
2.8 |
5,282.8 |
789.57 |
151.5 |
892.86 |
109.9 |
.9080 |
737.04 |
5,324.4 |
815.55 |
1.0020 |
817.18 |
|
... |
5,324.4 |
815.55 |
168.4 |
897.34 |
117.8 |
1.0646 |
868.24 |
5,375.0 |
816.95 |
1.0020 |
818.60 |
|
... |
5,375.0 |
816.95 |
168.4 |
901.86 |
115.5 |
1.0076 |
823.13 |
5,427.9 |
819.46 |
1.0020 |
821.10 |
|
... |
5,427.9 |
819.46 |
168.4 |
906.38 |
115.5 |
1.0079 |
825.93 |
5,480.8 |
821.99 |
1.0020 |
823.64 |
|
2.9 |
5,480.8 |
821.99 |
157.8 |
937.32 |
113.2 |
.9071 |
767.23 |
5,525.4 |
850.07 |
1.0020 |
851.78 |
|
... |
5,525.4 |
850.07 |
174.0 |
943.09 |
112.9 |
1.0645 |
904.89 |
5,586.5 |
851.86 |
1.0020 |
853.57 |
|
... |
5,586.5 |
851.86 |
174.0 |
948.41 |
110.7 |
1.0076 |
858.37 |
5,649.8 |
854.71 |
1.0020 |
856.43 |
|
... |
5,649.8 |
854.71 |
174.0 |
953.74 |
110.7 |
1.0079 |
861.48 |
5,713.1 |
857.59 |
1.0020 |
859.32 |
|
3.0 |
5,713.1 |
857.59 |
163.1 |
987.83 |
108.5 |
.9070 |
801.19 |
5,767.7 |
887.84 |
1.0020 |
889.62 |
|
... |
5,767.7 |
887.84 |
179.7 |
992.89 |
117.6 |
1.0642 |
944.81 |
5,829.8 |
889.93 |
1.0020 |
891.72 |
|
... |
5,829.8 |
889.93 |
179.7 |
997.89 |
115.3 |
1.0076 |
896.66 |
5,894.1 |
893.09 |
1.0020 |
894.88 |
|
... |
5,894.1 |
893.09 |
179.7 |
1,002.88 |
115.3 |
1.0078 |
900.07 |
5,958.5 |
896.26 |
1.0020 |
898.07 |
|
3.1 |
5,958.5 |
896.26 |
168.4 |
1,039.12 |
113.0 |
.9069 |
838.00 |
6,013.9 |
928.90 |
1.0020 |
930.77 |
|
... |
6,013.9 |
928.90 |
186.1 |
1,043.87 |
122.8 |
1.0638 |
988.15 |
6,077.2 |
931.23 |
1.0020 |
933.10 |
|
... |
6,077.2 |
931.23 |
186.1 |
1,048.47 |
120.4 |
1.0074 |
938.10 |
6,143.0 |
934.64 |
1.0020 |
936.53 |
|
... |
6,143.0 |
934.64 |
186.1 |
1,053.07 |
120.4 |
1.0076 |
941.76 |
6,208.7 |
938.06 |
1.0020 |
939.95 |
|
3.2 |
6,208.7 |
938.06 |
174.4 |
1,091.52 |
118.0 |
.9067 |
877.73 |
6,265.1 |
973.23 |
1.0020 |
975.19 |
|
... |
6,265.1 |
973.23 |
192.6 |
1,094.66 |
128.7 |
1.0632 |
1,034.77 |
6,329.0 |
975.67 |
1.0020 |
977.64 |
|
... |
6,329.0 |
975.67 |
192.6 |
1,098.57 |
126.1 |
1.0071 |
982.59 |
6,395.5 |
979.24 |
1.0020 |
981.21 |
|
... |
6,395.5 |
979.24 |
192.6 |
1,102.47 |
126.1 |
1.0073 |
986.40 |
6,461.9 |
982.77 |
1.0020 |
984.75 |
|
3.3 |
6,461.9 |
982.77 |
180.4 |
1,142.88 |
123.6 |
.9064 |
920.15 |
6,518.7 |
1,020.56 |
1.0020 |
1,022.62 |
|
... |
6,518.7 |
1,020.56 |
198.2 |
1,146.59 |
135.1 |
1.0633 |
1,085.14 |
6,581.8 |
1,023.03 |
1.0020 |
1,025.09 |
|
... |
6,581.8 |
1,023.03 |
198.2 |
1,150.20 |
132.4 |
1.0073 |
1,030.45 |
6,647.5 |
1,026.67 |
1.0020 |
1,028.74 |
|
... |
6,647.5 |
1,026.67 |
198.2 |
1,153.81 |
132.4 |
1.0075 |
1,034.35 |
6,713.2 |
1,030.27 |
1.0020 |
1,032.35 |
|
3.3 |
6,713.2 |
1,030.27 |
185.7 |
1,195.62 |
129.8 |
.9065 |
964.75 |
6,769.1 |
1,069.80 |
1.0020 |
1,071.96 |
|
... |
6,769.1 |
1,069.80 |
204.1 |
1,199.02 |
143.2 |
1.0632 |
1,137.37 |
6,830.1 |
1,072.25 |
1.0020 |
1,074.42 |
|
... |
6,830.1 |
1,072.25 |
204.1 |
1,202.67 |
140.4 |
1.0073 |
1,080.03 |
6,893.9 |
1,075.95 |
1.0020 |
1,078.13 |
|
... |
6,893.9 |
1,075.95 |
204.1 |
1,206.32 |
140.4 |
1.0075 |
1,083.99 |
6,957.7 |
1,079.61 |
1.0020 |
1,081.80 |
|
3.3 |
6,957.7 |
1,079.61 |
191.3 |
1,249.88 |
137.5 |
.9065 |
1,010.91 |
7,011.4 |
1,120.98 |
1.0020 |
1,123.25 |
|
... |
7,011.4 |
1,120.98 |
210.0 |
1,253.72 |
163.7 |
1.0619 |
1,190.42 |
7,057.7 |
1,123.32 |
1.0020 |
1,125.59 |
|
... |
7,057.7 |
1,123.32 |
210.0 |
1,257.38 |
160.5 |
1.0064 |
1,130.49 |
7,107.3 |
1,127.12 |
1.0020 |
1,129.40 |
|
... |
7,107.3 |
1,127.12 |
210.0 |
1,261.03 |
160.5 |
1.0066 |
1,134.53 |
7,156.8 |
1,130.88 |
1.0020 |
1,133.17 |
|
3.3 |
7,156.8 |
1,130.88 |
196.8 |
1,306.42 |
157.3 |
.9056 |
1,057.91 |
7,196.3 |
1,174.41 |
1.0020 |
1,176.78 |
|
... |
7,196.3 |
1,174.41 |
216.5 |
1,310.49 |
164.5 |
1.0615 |
1,246.64 |
7,248.4 |
1,176.84 |
1.0020 |
1,179.21 |
|
... |
7,248.4 |
1,176.84 |
216.5 |
1,314.33 |
161.2 |
1.0061 |
1,184.03 |
7,303.7 |
1,180.76 |
1.0020 |
1,183.14 |
|
... |
7,303.7 |
1,180.76 |
216.5 |
1,318.17 |
161.2 |
1.0063 |
1,188.17 |
7,359.0 |
1,184.64 |
1.0020 |
1,187.02 |
|
3.3 |
7,359.0 |
1,184.64 |
202.9 |
1,365.62 |
158.0 |
.9053 |
1,107.83 |
7,403.9 |
1,230.11 |
1.0020 |
1,232.59 |
1 Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources: See sources at end of table III.D5.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001