Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Calendar period |
In force beginning of period |
Awards during period |
Terminations during period |
In force end of period |
Current-payment status end of period |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8.0 |
691.1 |
$170.40 |
183.5 |
$190.89 |
92.9 |
1.0143 |
$186.66 |
781.7 |
$185.33 |
1.0001 |
$185.34 |
|
6.4 |
781.7 |
185.33 |
169.6 |
210.10 |
101.2 |
1.1056 |
218.02 |
850.1 |
199.67 |
1.0007 |
199.81 |
|
5.9 |
850.1 |
199.67 |
173.9 |
228.48 |
113.6 |
.9156 |
193.61 |
910.4 |
214.57 |
1.0002 |
214.62 |
|
6.5 |
910.4 |
214.57 |
149.4 |
252.01 |
127.5 |
.9139 |
208.85 |
932.4 |
231.97 |
1.0004 |
232.06 |
|
9.9 |
932.4 |
231.97 |
135.9 |
281.23 |
133.9 |
.9266 |
236.22 |
934.4 |
258.25 |
1.0002 |
258.31 |
|
14.3 |
934.4 |
258.25 |
129.1 |
304.32 |
130.1 |
.9196 |
271.46 |
933.4 |
296.04 |
1.0001 |
296.08 |
|
11.2 |
933.4 |
296.04 |
116.4 |
324.15 |
140.1 |
.9304 |
306.29 |
909.6 |
328.35 |
1.0000 |
328.35 |
|
7.4 |
909.6 |
328.35 |
102.5 |
331.72 |
148.9 |
.9315 |
328.48 |
863.2 |
349.45 |
.9992 |
349.16 |
|
3.5 |
863.2 |
349.45 |
132.0 |
332.75 |
151.8 |
.7247 |
262.12 |
843.4 |
360.17 |
1.0001 |
360.22 |
|
3.5 |
843.4 |
360.17 |
129.7 |
343.74 |
118.9 |
.8158 |
304.12 |
854.3 |
371.05 |
1.0003 |
371.17 |
|
3.1 |
854.3 |
371.05 |
135.0 |
355.76 |
111.3 |
.8439 |
322.82 |
877.9 |
380.98 |
1.0003 |
381.10 |
|
1.3 |
877.9 |
380.98 |
140.5 |
363.22 |
110.4 |
.9539 |
368.16 |
908.0 |
383.73 |
1.0005 |
383.91 |
|
4.2 |
908.0 |
383.73 |
141.3 |
384.81 |
113.4 |
.9473 |
378.78 |
935.9 |
399.29 |
1.0010 |
399.67 |
|
4.0 |
935.9 |
399.29 |
142.1 |
408.40 |
115.4 |
.9490 |
394.09 |
962.5 |
415.90 |
1.0011 |
416.36 |
|
4.7 |
962.5 |
415.90 |
151.9 |
434.09 |
113.5 |
.9270 |
403.65 |
1,001.0 |
437.93 |
1.0006 |
438.20 |
|
5.4 |
1,001.0 |
437.93 |
168.5 |
462.79 |
112.9 |
.9340 |
431.11 |
1,056.5 |
464.41 |
.9999 |
464.36 |
|
3.7 |
1,056.5 |
464.41 |
197.4 |
481.38 |
113.4 |
.9257 |
445.83 |
1,140.5 |
484.46 |
.9995 |
484.24 |
|
3.0 |
1,140.5 |
484.46 |
239.4 |
489.04 |
117.9 |
.9173 |
457.72 |
1,261.9 |
500.25 |
.9998 |
500.13 |
|
2.6 |
1,261.9 |
500.25 |
243.0 |
507.79 |
121.4 |
.9180 |
471.16 |
1,383.5 |
515.61 |
1.0002 |
515.70 |
|
2.8 |
1,383.5 |
515.61 |
250.4 |
533.86 |
127.1 |
.9117 |
483.24 |
1,506.8 |
534.65 |
1.0003 |
534.79 |
|
2.6 |
1,506.8 |
534.65 |
267.1 |
560.60 |
137.6 |
.9039 |
495.86 |
1,636.3 |
554.89 |
1.0000 |
554.89 |
|
2.9 |
1,636.3 |
554.89 |
268.8 |
584.49 |
142.1 |
.9183 |
524.34 |
1,763.0 |
576.68 |
1.0000 |
576.68 |
|
2.1 |
1,763.0 |
576.68 |
260.9 |
603.63 |
158.2 |
.9232 |
543.58 |
1,865.7 |
594.69 |
.9997 |
594.52 |
|
1.3 |
1,865.7 |
594.69 |
275.4 |
619.33 |
153.0 |
.9249 |
557.15 |
1,988.0 |
608.19 |
.9995 |
607.91 |
|
1 2.5 |
1,988.0 |
608.19 |
283.0 |
652.42 |
164.8 |
.9328 |
580.94 |
2,106.3 |
629.76 |
.9998 |
629.63 |
|
3.5 |
2,106.3 |
629.76 |
282.5 |
697.62 |
176.1 |
.9507 |
619.65 |
2,212.7 |
660.25 |
1.0005 |
660.61 |
|
... |
2,212.7 |
660.25 |
73.4 |
713.06 |
44.7 |
.9600 |
633.84 |
2,241.3 |
662.51 |
1.0000 |
662.53 |
|
... |
2,241.3 |
662.51 |
73.4 |
717.54 |
43.9 |
.9500 |
629.38 |
2,270.9 |
664.93 |
1.0000 |
664.95 |
|
... |
2,270.9 |
664.93 |
73.4 |
722.02 |
43.9 |
.9500 |
631.68 |
2,300.4 |
667.38 |
1.0000 |
667.41 |
|
2.8 |
2,300.4 |
667.38 |
68.8 |
746.84 |
43.0 |
.8500 |
583.17 |
2,326.2 |
689.78 |
1.0000 |
689.81 |
|
... |
2,326.2 |
689.78 |
76.5 |
750.86 |
46.9 |
.9600 |
662.19 |
2,355.8 |
692.31 |
1.0000 |
692.34 |
|
... |
2,355.8 |
692.31 |
76.5 |
754.88 |
46.0 |
.9500 |
657.70 |
2,386.3 |
694.99 |
1.0000 |
695.01 |
|
... |
2,386.3 |
694.99 |
76.5 |
758.89 |
46.0 |
.9500 |
660.24 |
2,416.8 |
697.67 |
1.0000 |
697.70 |
|
2.9 |
2,416.8 |
697.67 |
71.6 |
785.04 |
45.0 |
.8500 |
610.23 |
2,443.4 |
721.87 |
1.0000 |
721.90 |
|
... |
2,443.4 |
721.87 |
78.7 |
789.55 |
45.3 |
.9600 |
693.00 |
2,476.8 |
724.55 |
1.0000 |
724.58 |
|
... |
2,476.8 |
724.55 |
78.7 |
794.07 |
44.4 |
.9500 |
688.32 |
2,511.1 |
727.37 |
1.0000 |
727.40 |
|
... |
2,511.1 |
727.37 |
78.7 |
798.59 |
44.4 |
.9500 |
691.00 |
2,545.4 |
730.21 |
1.0000 |
730.24 |
|
3.0 |
2,545.4 |
730.21 |
73.8 |
827.20 |
43.5 |
.8500 |
639.31 |
2,575.7 |
756.19 |
1.0000 |
756.22 |
|
... |
2,575.7 |
756.19 |
81.2 |
830.67 |
47.6 |
.9600 |
725.94 |
2,609.3 |
759.06 |
1.0000 |
759.09 |
|
... |
2,609.3 |
759.06 |
81.2 |
834.14 |
46.6 |
.9500 |
721.11 |
2,643.9 |
762.04 |
1.0000 |
762.07 |
|
... |
2,643.9 |
762.04 |
81.2 |
837.61 |
46.6 |
.9500 |
723.94 |
2,678.5 |
764.99 |
1.0000 |
765.02 |
|
3.1 |
2,678.5 |
764.99 |
76.1 |
867.16 |
45.7 |
.8500 |
670.42 |
2,709.0 |
792.93 |
1.0000 |
792.96 |
|
... |
2,709.0 |
792.93 |
84.1 |
870.38 |
50.1 |
.9600 |
761.21 |
2,743.0 |
795.88 |
1.0000 |
795.91 |
|
... |
2,743.0 |
795.88 |
84.1 |
873.59 |
49.1 |
.9500 |
756.09 |
2,778.0 |
798.93 |
1.0000 |
798.97 |
|
... |
2,778.0 |
798.93 |
84.1 |
876.81 |
49.1 |
.9500 |
758.99 |
2,812.9 |
801.96 |
1.0000 |
801.99 |
|
3.2 |
2,812.9 |
801.96 |
78.8 |
908.19 |
48.1 |
.8500 |
703.49 |
2,843.6 |
831.97 |
1.0000 |
832.00 |
|
... |
2,843.6 |
831.97 |
87.4 |
911.27 |
52.9 |
.9600 |
798.69 |
2,878.1 |
834.99 |
1.0000 |
835.03 |
|
... |
2,878.1 |
834.99 |
87.4 |
914.36 |
51.9 |
.9500 |
793.24 |
2,913.7 |
838.12 |
1.0000 |
838.15 |
|
... |
2,913.7 |
838.12 |
87.4 |
917.45 |
51.9 |
.9500 |
796.21 |
2,949.2 |
841.20 |
1.0000 |
841.24 |
|
3.3 |
2,949.2 |
841.20 |
81.9 |
950.91 |
50.8 |
.8500 |
738.64 |
2,980.3 |
873.46 |
1.0000 |
873.49 |
|
... |
2,980.3 |
873.46 |
89.9 |
953.93 |
55.8 |
.9600 |
838.52 |
3,014.3 |
876.51 |
1.0000 |
876.54 |
|
... |
3,014.3 |
876.51 |
89.9 |
956.96 |
54.7 |
.9500 |
832.68 |
3,049.5 |
879.67 |
1.0000 |
879.70 |
|
... |
3,049.5 |
879.67 |
89.9 |
959.98 |
54.7 |
.9500 |
835.68 |
3,084.7 |
882.79 |
1.0000 |
882.82 |
|
3.3 |
3,084.7 |
882.79 |
84.2 |
994.78 |
53.6 |
.8500 |
775.15 |
3,115.3 |
916.53 |
1.0000 |
916.57 |
|
... |
3,115.3 |
916.53 |
92.8 |
997.86 |
59.5 |
.9600 |
879.87 |
3,148.5 |
919.62 |
1.0000 |
919.66 |
|
... |
3,148.5 |
919.62 |
92.8 |
1,000.94 |
58.3 |
.9500 |
873.64 |
3,183.0 |
922.84 |
1.0000 |
922.87 |
|
... |
3,183.0 |
922.84 |
92.8 |
1,004.02 |
58.3 |
.9500 |
876.69 |
3,217.4 |
926.01 |
1.0000 |
926.05 |
|
3.3 |
3,217.4 |
926.01 |
86.9 |
1,040.34 |
57.2 |
.8500 |
813.10 |
3,247.1 |
961.36 |
1.0000 |
961.40 |
|
... |
3,247.1 |
961.36 |
95.3 |
1,043.31 |
68.8 |
.9600 |
922.90 |
3,273.6 |
964.56 |
1.0000 |
964.59 |
|
... |
3,273.6 |
964.56 |
95.3 |
1,046.29 |
67.5 |
.9500 |
916.33 |
3,301.5 |
967.90 |
1.0000 |
967.94 |
|
... |
3,301.5 |
967.90 |
95.3 |
1,049.26 |
67.5 |
.9500 |
919.51 |
3,329.3 |
971.21 |
1.0000 |
971.25 |
|
3.3 |
3,329.3 |
971.21 |
89.3 |
1,086.96 |
66.1 |
.8500 |
852.79 |
3,352.5 |
1,008.48 |
1.0000 |
1,008.52 |
|
... |
3,352.5 |
1,008.48 |
98.2 |
1,089.77 |
69.6 |
.9600 |
968.14 |
3,381.1 |
1,011.67 |
1.0000 |
1,011.71 |
|
... |
3,381.1 |
1,011.67 |
98.2 |
1,092.58 |
68.2 |
.9500 |
961.09 |
3,411.0 |
1,015.01 |
1.0000 |
1,015.05 |
|
... |
3,411.0 |
1,015.01 |
98.2 |
1,095.39 |
68.2 |
.9500 |
964.26 |
3,441.0 |
1,018.31 |
1.0000 |
1,018.35 |
|
3.3 |
3,441.0 |
1,018.31 |
92.0 |
1,134.44 |
66.9 |
.8500 |
894.15 |
3,466.1 |
1,057.17 |
1.0000 |
1,057.21 |
1 Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources: See sources at end of table III.D5.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001