Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Calendar period |
In force beginning of period |
Awards during period |
Terminations during period |
In force end of period |
Current-payment status end of period |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8.0 |
127.3 |
$79.49 |
124.1 |
$83.24 |
95.1 |
0.9546 |
$81.95 |
156.3 |
$86.15 |
1.0086 |
$86.89 |
|
6.4 |
156.3 |
86.15 |
143.6 |
88.66 |
125.5 |
.9290 |
85.15 |
174.5 |
93.89 |
1.0048 |
94.34 |
|
5.9 |
174.5 |
93.89 |
150.3 |
97.15 |
144.1 |
.9362 |
93.08 |
180.7 |
102.59 |
1.0019 |
102.78 |
|
6.5 |
180.7 |
102.59 |
148.9 |
106.17 |
142.6 |
.9476 |
103.53 |
187.0 |
112.00 |
1.0137 |
113.53 |
|
9.9 |
187.0 |
112.00 |
145.6 |
121.55 |
152.5 |
.9430 |
116.07 |
180.1 |
127.85 |
1.0156 |
129.85 |
|
14.3 |
180.1 |
127.85 |
145.9 |
140.44 |
145.1 |
.9303 |
135.95 |
181.0 |
150.04 |
1.0159 |
152.43 |
|
11.2 |
181.0 |
150.04 |
138.1 |
154.45 |
141.9 |
.9207 |
153.61 |
177.2 |
167.78 |
1.0306 |
172.92 |
|
7.4 |
177.2 |
167.78 |
104.4 |
164.48 |
175.9 |
1.0500 |
189.21 |
105.7 |
152.25 |
1.0211 |
155.46 |
|
3.5 |
105.7 |
152.25 |
70.6 |
171.89 |
114.1 |
1.1230 |
176.96 |
62.2 |
138.28 |
1.0414 |
144.00 |
|
3.5 |
62.2 |
138.28 |
61.9 |
181.73 |
83.2 |
1.2086 |
172.97 |
41.0 |
140.89 |
1.0632 |
149.80 |
|
3.1 |
41.0 |
140.89 |
55.6 |
188.76 |
69.4 |
1.1370 |
165.15 |
27.2 |
186.90 |
1.0535 |
196.90 |
|
1.3 |
27.2 |
186.90 |
52.5 |
193.11 |
53.5 |
1.0350 |
195.95 |
26.3 |
186.69 |
1.0812 |
201.84 |
|
4.2 |
26.3 |
186.69 |
54.0 |
201.41 |
53.2 |
1.0509 |
204.44 |
27.0 |
195.94 |
1.0891 |
213.40 |
|
4.0 |
27.0 |
195.94 |
61.4 |
213.17 |
56.3 |
1.0405 |
212.03 |
32.2 |
209.38 |
1.0888 |
227.98 |
|
4.7 |
32.2 |
209.38 |
56.7 |
225.79 |
57.2 |
1.0326 |
226.37 |
31.7 |
220.53 |
1.0910 |
240.59 |
|
5.4 |
31.7 |
220.53 |
58.4 |
231.50 |
58.3 |
1.0183 |
236.68 |
31.8 |
226.54 |
1.1036 |
250.00 |
|
3.7 |
31.8 |
226.54 |
60.2 |
236.04 |
58.2 |
1.0170 |
238.92 |
33.8 |
231.37 |
1.0945 |
253.23 |
|
3.0 |
33.8 |
231.37 |
65.9 |
237.42 |
62.7 |
1.0055 |
239.62 |
37.0 |
235.32 |
1.1132 |
261.96 |
|
2.6 |
37.0 |
235.32 |
70.9 |
242.40 |
68.7 |
1.0132 |
244.61 |
39.1 |
238.91 |
1.1131 |
265.94 |
|
2.8 |
39.1 |
238.91 |
74.1 |
248.34 |
72.6 |
1.0148 |
249.24 |
40.6 |
245.80 |
1.1138 |
273.77 |
|
2.6 |
40.6 |
245.80 |
75.6 |
259.23 |
74.5 |
1.0283 |
259.32 |
41.7 |
254.10 |
1.1182 |
284.13 |
|
2.9 |
41.7 |
254.10 |
76.5 |
270.49 |
74.3 |
1.0245 |
267.86 |
43.9 |
267.90 |
1.1010 |
294.96 |
|
2.1 |
43.9 |
267.90 |
75.8 |
279.19 |
77.0 |
1.0183 |
278.52 |
42.8 |
275.89 |
1.1100 |
306.25 |
|
1.3 |
42.8 |
275.89 |
82.4 |
285.92 |
80.1 |
1.0215 |
285.49 |
45.1 |
281.88 |
1.1106 |
313.06 |
|
1 2.5 |
45.1 |
281.88 |
84.3 |
295.37 |
84.0 |
1.0215 |
294.85 |
45.4 |
291.14 |
1.0983 |
319.75 |
|
3.5 |
45.4 |
291.14 |
81.4 |
312.60 |
81.2 |
1.0384 |
312.89 |
45.6 |
303.36 |
1.1076 |
336.01 |
|
... |
45.6 |
303.36 |
24.8 |
319.65 |
9.6 |
.9600 |
291.23 |
60.8 |
311.92 |
1.1063 |
345.09 |
|
... |
60.8 |
311.92 |
19.9 |
319.94 |
30.4 |
1.0000 |
311.92 |
50.3 |
315.09 |
1.1063 |
348.60 |
|
... |
50.3 |
315.09 |
16.6 |
320.24 |
38.1 |
1.0200 |
321.39 |
28.8 |
309.72 |
1.1063 |
342.65 |
|
2.8 |
28.8 |
309.72 |
21.5 |
329.51 |
5.9 |
.9200 |
292.93 |
44.4 |
327.19 |
1.1063 |
361.98 |
|
... |
44.4 |
327.19 |
25.9 |
331.14 |
9.7 |
.9600 |
314.10 |
60.5 |
330.99 |
1.1063 |
366.18 |
|
... |
60.5 |
330.99 |
20.7 |
332.77 |
30.4 |
1.0000 |
330.99 |
50.7 |
331.71 |
1.1063 |
366.98 |
|
... |
50.7 |
331.71 |
17.2 |
334.40 |
38.6 |
1.0200 |
338.34 |
29.4 |
324.59 |
1.1063 |
359.11 |
|
2.9 |
29.4 |
324.59 |
22.4 |
345.78 |
6.1 |
.9200 |
307.30 |
45.7 |
343.35 |
1.1063 |
379.86 |
|
... |
45.7 |
343.35 |
26.7 |
347.73 |
10.0 |
.9600 |
329.62 |
62.4 |
347.44 |
1.1063 |
384.38 |
|
... |
62.4 |
347.44 |
21.4 |
349.68 |
31.4 |
1.0000 |
347.44 |
52.3 |
348.35 |
1.1063 |
385.39 |
|
... |
52.3 |
348.35 |
17.8 |
351.63 |
39.8 |
1.0200 |
355.31 |
30.3 |
341.15 |
1.1063 |
377.42 |
|
3.0 |
30.3 |
341.15 |
23.2 |
364.19 |
6.3 |
.9200 |
323.29 |
47.2 |
361.42 |
1.1063 |
399.85 |
|
... |
47.2 |
361.42 |
27.6 |
366.15 |
10.4 |
.9600 |
346.96 |
64.4 |
365.77 |
1.1063 |
404.66 |
|
... |
64.4 |
365.77 |
22.1 |
368.10 |
32.5 |
1.0000 |
365.77 |
54.1 |
366.72 |
1.1063 |
405.72 |
|
... |
54.1 |
366.72 |
18.4 |
370.06 |
41.1 |
1.0200 |
374.06 |
31.3 |
359.06 |
1.1063 |
397.24 |
|
3.1 |
31.3 |
359.06 |
23.9 |
383.55 |
6.5 |
.9200 |
340.59 |
48.7 |
380.69 |
1.1063 |
421.18 |
|
... |
48.7 |
380.69 |
28.6 |
385.35 |
10.7 |
.9600 |
365.47 |
66.6 |
385.14 |
1.1063 |
426.10 |
|
... |
66.6 |
385.14 |
22.9 |
387.14 |
33.6 |
1.0000 |
385.14 |
55.9 |
385.96 |
1.1063 |
427.00 |
|
... |
55.9 |
385.96 |
19.1 |
388.94 |
42.5 |
1.0200 |
393.68 |
32.4 |
377.59 |
1.1063 |
417.74 |
|
3.2 |
32.4 |
377.59 |
24.8 |
403.24 |
6.7 |
.9200 |
358.51 |
50.5 |
400.49 |
1.1063 |
443.08 |
|
... |
50.5 |
400.49 |
29.6 |
404.71 |
11.1 |
.9600 |
384.47 |
68.9 |
404.88 |
1.1063 |
447.93 |
|
... |
68.9 |
404.88 |
23.7 |
406.18 |
34.7 |
1.0000 |
404.88 |
57.9 |
405.41 |
1.1063 |
448.52 |
|
... |
57.9 |
405.41 |
19.7 |
407.65 |
44.0 |
1.0200 |
413.52 |
33.6 |
396.10 |
1.1063 |
438.23 |
|
3.3 |
33.6 |
396.10 |
25.6 |
422.62 |
7.0 |
.9200 |
376.46 |
52.2 |
420.15 |
1.1063 |
464.83 |
|
... |
52.2 |
420.15 |
30.4 |
423.96 |
11.5 |
.9600 |
403.34 |
71.2 |
424.48 |
1.1063 |
469.62 |
|
... |
71.2 |
424.48 |
24.3 |
425.29 |
35.8 |
1.0000 |
424.48 |
59.7 |
424.81 |
1.1063 |
469.98 |
|
... |
59.7 |
424.81 |
20.3 |
426.62 |
45.4 |
1.0200 |
433.30 |
34.6 |
414.72 |
1.1063 |
458.82 |
|
3.3 |
34.6 |
414.72 |
26.4 |
442.08 |
7.2 |
.9200 |
394.15 |
53.8 |
439.69 |
1.1063 |
486.44 |
|
... |
53.8 |
439.69 |
31.3 |
443.42 |
11.8 |
.9600 |
422.10 |
73.3 |
444.11 |
1.1063 |
491.34 |
|
... |
73.3 |
444.11 |
25.1 |
444.76 |
36.9 |
1.0000 |
444.11 |
61.5 |
444.38 |
1.1063 |
491.63 |
|
... |
61.5 |
444.38 |
20.9 |
446.10 |
46.8 |
1.0200 |
453.27 |
35.6 |
433.72 |
1.1063 |
479.85 |
|
3.3 |
35.6 |
433.72 |
27.2 |
462.21 |
7.4 |
.9200 |
412.21 |
55.4 |
459.77 |
1.1063 |
508.66 |
|
... |
55.4 |
459.77 |
32.3 |
463.57 |
12.2 |
.9600 |
441.38 |
75.5 |
464.36 |
1.1063 |
513.73 |
|
... |
75.5 |
464.36 |
25.8 |
464.93 |
38.0 |
1.0000 |
464.36 |
63.3 |
464.60 |
1.1063 |
514.00 |
|
... |
63.3 |
464.60 |
21.5 |
466.30 |
48.1 |
1.0200 |
473.89 |
36.7 |
453.41 |
1.1063 |
501.63 |
|
3.3 |
36.7 |
453.41 |
28.0 |
483.09 |
7.6 |
.9200 |
430.92 |
57.0 |
480.59 |
1.1063 |
531.70 |
|
... |
57.0 |
480.59 |
33.2 |
484.58 |
12.5 |
.9600 |
461.37 |
77.7 |
485.39 |
1.1063 |
537.01 |
|
... |
77.7 |
485.39 |
26.6 |
486.06 |
39.1 |
1.0000 |
485.39 |
65.2 |
485.66 |
1.1063 |
537.31 |
|
... |
65.2 |
485.66 |
22.2 |
487.54 |
49.6 |
1.0200 |
495.38 |
37.8 |
474.01 |
1.1063 |
524.42 |
|
3.3 |
37.8 |
474.01 |
28.8 |
505.16 |
7.8 |
.9200 |
450.50 |
58.8 |
502.48 |
1.1063 |
555.92 |
1 Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources: See sources at end of table III.D5.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001