Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Calendar period |
In force beginning of period |
Awards during period |
Terminations during period |
In force end of period |
Current-payment status end of period |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8.0 |
21.6 |
$77.68 |
7.0 |
$82.50 |
3.9 |
0.9673 |
$81.15 |
24.7 |
$83.92 |
1.0037 |
$84.23 |
|
6.4 |
24.7 |
83.92 |
7.4 |
86.82 |
4.6 |
.9324 |
83.25 |
27.6 |
89.63 |
1.0061 |
90.18 |
|
5.9 |
27.6 |
89.63 |
8.0 |
95.93 |
5.0 |
.8745 |
83.00 |
30.6 |
97.12 |
1.0019 |
97.30 |
|
6.5 |
30.6 |
97.12 |
7.2 |
103.11 |
5.5 |
.9260 |
95.78 |
32.3 |
104.90 |
1.0051 |
105.43 |
|
9.9 |
32.3 |
104.90 |
6.3 |
116.72 |
5.7 |
.9143 |
105.40 |
32.9 |
117.28 |
1.0033 |
117.67 |
|
14.3 |
32.9 |
117.28 |
6.2 |
129.16 |
5.5 |
.8929 |
119.69 |
33.6 |
135.57 |
1.0034 |
136.03 |
|
11.2 |
33.6 |
135.57 |
5.5 |
136.81 |
5.0 |
.9676 |
145.87 |
34.1 |
149.21 |
1.0181 |
151.91 |
|
7.4 |
34.1 |
149.21 |
4.2 |
147.41 |
6.3 |
.9828 |
157.49 |
32.0 |
159.41 |
1.0282 |
163.90 |
|
3.5 |
32.0 |
159.41 |
5.2 |
151.26 |
4.5 |
.9028 |
148.95 |
32.7 |
165.01 |
1.0422 |
171.98 |
|
3.5 |
32.7 |
165.01 |
5.6 |
159.18 |
4.0 |
.9902 |
169.11 |
34.3 |
169.08 |
1.0562 |
178.59 |
|
3.1 |
34.3 |
169.08 |
6.7 |
162.90 |
4.1 |
1.0225 |
178.25 |
36.8 |
172.08 |
1.0679 |
183.77 |
|
1.3 |
36.8 |
172.08 |
6.9 |
165.66 |
4.2 |
1.0885 |
189.74 |
39.6 |
171.41 |
1.0894 |
186.73 |
|
4.2 |
39.6 |
171.41 |
6.7 |
163.52 |
4.9 |
1.0059 |
179.66 |
41.3 |
176.52 |
1.1089 |
195.74 |
|
4.0 |
41.3 |
176.52 |
6.6 |
162.34 |
5.3 |
.8995 |
165.13 |
42.7 |
182.71 |
1.1218 |
204.96 |
|
4.7 |
42.7 |
182.71 |
6.3 |
180.75 |
5.1 |
.8854 |
169.38 |
43.8 |
192.51 |
1.1334 |
218.20 |
|
5.4 |
43.8 |
192.51 |
6.6 |
190.51 |
5.2 |
.9091 |
184.47 |
45.2 |
203.45 |
1.1373 |
231.38 |
|
3.7 |
45.2 |
203.45 |
7.5 |
198.66 |
5.4 |
.9329 |
196.81 |
47.3 |
210.74 |
1.1429 |
240.86 |
|
3.0 |
47.3 |
210.74 |
9.5 |
198.19 |
5.1 |
.9743 |
211.47 |
51.7 |
214.21 |
1.1522 |
246.82 |
|
2.6 |
51.7 |
214.21 |
10.2 |
202.30 |
5.5 |
.9522 |
209.27 |
56.5 |
217.75 |
1.1634 |
253.34 |
|
2.8 |
56.5 |
217.75 |
9.7 |
211.54 |
5.8 |
.9190 |
205.71 |
60.4 |
223.74 |
1.1686 |
261.47 |
|
2.6 |
60.4 |
223.74 |
9.7 |
218.92 |
6.3 |
.9055 |
207.87 |
63.9 |
230.20 |
1.1734 |
270.12 |
|
2.9 |
63.9 |
230.20 |
9.3 |
231.64 |
6.3 |
.8648 |
204.84 |
66.9 |
239.25 |
1.1772 |
281.65 |
|
2.1 |
66.9 |
239.25 |
8.5 |
240.74 |
7.4 |
.8884 |
217.00 |
68.0 |
246.88 |
1.1835 |
292.18 |
|
1.3 |
68.0 |
246.88 |
9.1 |
250.58 |
6.7 |
.8796 |
219.99 |
70.4 |
253.08 |
1.1863 |
300.24 |
|
1 2.5 |
70.4 |
253.08 |
9.8 |
252.31 |
7.6 |
.8925 |
231.31 |
72.6 |
261.23 |
1.1893 |
310.68 |
|
3.5 |
72.6 |
261.23 |
9.6 |
255.71 |
8.5 |
.8649 |
233.85 |
73.7 |
272.82 |
1.1934 |
325.58 |
|
... |
73.7 |
272.82 |
2.4 |
260.97 |
2.1 |
.9200 |
250.99 |
74.1 |
273.04 |
1.1913 |
325.29 |
|
... |
74.1 |
273.04 |
2.4 |
261.38 |
2.1 |
.9000 |
245.74 |
74.5 |
273.42 |
1.1913 |
325.74 |
|
... |
74.5 |
273.42 |
2.4 |
261.79 |
2.1 |
.8200 |
224.20 |
74.8 |
274.41 |
1.1913 |
326.91 |
|
2.8 |
74.8 |
274.41 |
2.3 |
269.54 |
2.1 |
.9000 |
253.90 |
75.0 |
282.52 |
1.1913 |
336.57 |
|
... |
75.0 |
282.52 |
2.4 |
270.87 |
2.1 |
.9200 |
259.91 |
75.3 |
282.77 |
1.1913 |
336.87 |
|
... |
75.3 |
282.77 |
2.4 |
272.20 |
2.1 |
.9000 |
254.49 |
75.7 |
283.22 |
1.1913 |
337.41 |
|
... |
75.7 |
283.22 |
2.4 |
273.54 |
2.1 |
.8200 |
232.24 |
76.0 |
284.32 |
1.1913 |
338.73 |
|
2.9 |
76.0 |
284.32 |
2.3 |
282.84 |
2.1 |
.9000 |
263.33 |
76.2 |
293.11 |
1.1913 |
349.20 |
|
... |
76.2 |
293.11 |
2.4 |
284.44 |
2.1 |
.9200 |
269.66 |
76.5 |
293.49 |
1.1913 |
349.65 |
|
... |
76.5 |
293.49 |
2.4 |
286.03 |
2.1 |
.9000 |
264.14 |
76.8 |
294.07 |
1.1913 |
350.34 |
|
... |
76.8 |
294.07 |
2.4 |
287.63 |
2.1 |
.8200 |
241.14 |
77.1 |
295.34 |
1.1913 |
351.85 |
|
3.0 |
77.1 |
295.34 |
2.3 |
297.90 |
2.2 |
.9000 |
273.79 |
77.2 |
304.88 |
1.1913 |
363.22 |
|
... |
77.2 |
304.88 |
2.5 |
299.50 |
2.2 |
.9200 |
280.49 |
77.6 |
305.38 |
1.1913 |
363.81 |
|
... |
77.6 |
305.38 |
2.5 |
301.10 |
2.2 |
.9000 |
274.84 |
77.9 |
306.09 |
1.1913 |
364.66 |
|
... |
77.9 |
306.09 |
2.5 |
302.70 |
2.2 |
.8200 |
250.99 |
78.2 |
307.51 |
1.1913 |
366.36 |
|
3.1 |
78.2 |
307.51 |
2.4 |
313.74 |
2.2 |
.9000 |
285.36 |
78.4 |
317.85 |
1.1913 |
378.67 |
|
... |
78.4 |
317.85 |
2.6 |
315.21 |
2.2 |
.9200 |
292.42 |
78.8 |
318.47 |
1.1913 |
379.41 |
|
... |
78.8 |
318.47 |
2.6 |
316.68 |
2.2 |
.9000 |
286.62 |
79.2 |
319.30 |
1.1913 |
380.40 |
|
... |
79.2 |
319.30 |
2.6 |
318.15 |
2.2 |
.8200 |
261.82 |
79.6 |
320.86 |
1.1913 |
382.26 |
|
3.2 |
79.6 |
320.86 |
2.4 |
329.85 |
2.2 |
.9000 |
298.03 |
79.8 |
332.02 |
1.1913 |
395.56 |
|
... |
79.8 |
332.02 |
2.7 |
331.05 |
2.2 |
.9200 |
305.46 |
80.3 |
332.73 |
1.1913 |
396.40 |
|
... |
80.3 |
332.73 |
2.7 |
332.25 |
2.2 |
.9000 |
299.46 |
80.8 |
333.64 |
1.1913 |
397.49 |
|
... |
80.8 |
333.64 |
2.7 |
333.45 |
2.3 |
.8200 |
273.59 |
81.2 |
335.31 |
1.1913 |
399.47 |
|
3.3 |
81.2 |
335.31 |
2.5 |
345.70 |
2.3 |
.9000 |
311.75 |
81.5 |
347.34 |
1.1913 |
413.80 |
|
... |
81.5 |
347.34 |
2.8 |
346.79 |
2.3 |
.9200 |
319.55 |
81.9 |
348.09 |
1.1913 |
414.69 |
|
... |
81.9 |
348.09 |
2.8 |
347.88 |
2.3 |
.9000 |
313.28 |
82.4 |
349.05 |
1.1913 |
415.84 |
|
... |
82.4 |
349.05 |
2.8 |
348.97 |
2.3 |
.8200 |
286.22 |
82.9 |
350.79 |
1.1913 |
417.91 |
|
3.3 |
82.9 |
350.79 |
2.6 |
361.62 |
2.3 |
.9000 |
326.15 |
83.2 |
363.37 |
1.1913 |
432.90 |
|
... |
83.2 |
363.37 |
2.9 |
362.71 |
2.3 |
.9200 |
334.30 |
83.7 |
364.16 |
1.1913 |
433.84 |
|
... |
83.7 |
364.16 |
2.9 |
363.81 |
2.3 |
.9000 |
327.74 |
84.2 |
365.16 |
1.1913 |
435.03 |
|
... |
84.2 |
365.16 |
2.9 |
364.91 |
2.4 |
.8200 |
299.43 |
84.7 |
366.98 |
1.1913 |
437.20 |
|
3.3 |
84.7 |
366.98 |
2.7 |
378.08 |
2.4 |
.9000 |
341.20 |
85.0 |
380.13 |
1.1913 |
452.87 |
|
... |
85.0 |
380.13 |
2.9 |
379.20 |
2.4 |
.9200 |
349.72 |
85.6 |
380.94 |
1.1913 |
453.84 |
|
... |
85.6 |
380.94 |
2.9 |
380.31 |
2.4 |
.9000 |
342.85 |
86.2 |
381.98 |
1.1913 |
455.07 |
|
... |
86.2 |
381.98 |
2.9 |
381.43 |
2.4 |
.8200 |
313.22 |
86.7 |
383.87 |
1.1913 |
457.33 |
|
3.3 |
86.7 |
383.87 |
2.8 |
395.17 |
2.4 |
.9000 |
356.90 |
87.0 |
397.62 |
1.1913 |
473.70 |
|
... |
87.0 |
397.62 |
3.0 |
396.38 |
2.4 |
.9200 |
365.81 |
87.6 |
398.46 |
1.1913 |
474.70 |
|
... |
87.6 |
398.46 |
3.0 |
397.59 |
2.5 |
.9000 |
358.61 |
88.2 |
399.54 |
1.1913 |
475.99 |
|
... |
88.2 |
399.54 |
3.0 |
398.80 |
2.5 |
.8200 |
327.62 |
88.8 |
401.51 |
1.1913 |
478.34 |
|
3.3 |
88.8 |
401.51 |
2.8 |
413.21 |
2.5 |
.9000 |
373.30 |
89.1 |
415.89 |
1.1913 |
495.47 |
1 Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources: See sources at end of table III.D5.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001