Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Calendar period |
Benefit increase (percent) |
In force beginning of period |
Awards during period |
Terminations during period |
In force end of period |
Current-payment status end of period |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number |
Average benefit |
Number |
Average benefit |
Number |
Ratio to average benefit in force beginning of period |
Average benefit |
Number |
Average benefit |
Ratio to average benefit in force end of period |
Average benefit |
||
8.0 |
1,560.2 |
$221.13 |
408.5 |
$263.81 |
246.9 |
1.0168 |
$242.82 |
1,721.8 |
$244.13 |
1.0008 |
$244.32 |
|
6.4 |
1,721.8 |
244.13 |
381.9 |
292.91 |
267.4 |
1.0186 |
264.58 |
1,836.3 |
266.01 |
1.0008 |
266.22 |
|
5.9 |
1,836.3 |
266.01 |
395.0 |
320.37 |
291.4 |
1.0200 |
287.33 |
1,939.9 |
288.72 |
1.0008 |
288.95 |
|
6.5 |
1,939.9 |
288.72 |
341.4 |
355.98 |
315.9 |
.9421 |
289.70 |
1,965.4 |
314.65 |
1.0010 |
314.95 |
|
9.9 |
1,965.4 |
314.65 |
304.6 |
399.40 |
321.8 |
.9541 |
329.92 |
1,948.3 |
352.37 |
1.0007 |
352.62 |
|
14.3 |
1,948.3 |
352.37 |
291.2 |
440.75 |
304.5 |
.9500 |
382.64 |
1,934.9 |
406.55 |
1.0006 |
406.79 |
|
11.2 |
1,934.9 |
406.55 |
264.7 |
475.27 |
320.1 |
.9359 |
423.10 |
1,879.5 |
453.91 |
1.0007 |
454.23 |
|
7.4 |
1,879.5 |
453.91 |
233.6 |
492.88 |
353.2 |
.9571 |
466.61 |
1,759.9 |
485.56 |
1.0000 |
485.55 |
|
3.5 |
1,759.9 |
485.56 |
296.5 |
497.07 |
311.1 |
.7418 |
372.77 |
1,745.3 |
502.05 |
1.0012 |
502.66 |
|
3.5 |
1,745.3 |
502.05 |
280.3 |
511.51 |
262.7 |
.8691 |
451.62 |
1,762.8 |
518.28 |
1.0014 |
519.01 |
|
3.1 |
1,762.8 |
518.28 |
281.1 |
530.28 |
241.5 |
.9015 |
481.70 |
1,802.4 |
533.29 |
1.0014 |
534.06 |
|
1.3 |
1,802.4 |
533.29 |
284.4 |
535.14 |
240.9 |
.9961 |
538.10 |
1,845.8 |
538.26 |
1.0017 |
539.16 |
|
4.2 |
1,845.8 |
538.26 |
279.0 |
570.48 |
247.5 |
.9989 |
560.28 |
1,877.3 |
561.18 |
1.0023 |
562.49 |
|
4.0 |
1,877.3 |
561.18 |
273.2 |
605.51 |
249.7 |
1.0029 |
585.33 |
1,900.9 |
585.33 |
1.0028 |
586.97 |
|
4.7 |
1,900.9 |
585.33 |
278.8 |
637.09 |
244.2 |
.9971 |
611.09 |
1,935.5 |
615.38 |
1.0028 |
617.09 |
|
5.4 |
1,935.5 |
615.38 |
303.6 |
672.43 |
241.2 |
1.0061 |
652.56 |
1,997.9 |
650.89 |
1.0024 |
652.42 |
|
3.7 |
1,997.9 |
650.89 |
343.4 |
691.46 |
242.0 |
1.0089 |
680.99 |
2,099.3 |
676.14 |
1.0021 |
677.54 |
|
3.0 |
2,099.3 |
676.14 |
402.7 |
697.79 |
249.9 |
1.0034 |
698.82 |
2,252.1 |
695.36 |
1.0022 |
696.88 |
|
2.6 |
2,252.1 |
695.36 |
394.4 |
718.81 |
255.2 |
1.0105 |
720.90 |
2,391.3 |
712.95 |
1.0026 |
714.80 |
|
2.8 |
2,391.3 |
712.95 |
381.4 |
753.07 |
260.4 |
1.0085 |
739.11 |
2,512.3 |
735.34 |
1.0031 |
737.63 |
|
2.6 |
2,512.3 |
735.34 |
378.5 |
787.79 |
273.7 |
1.0019 |
755.87 |
2,617.1 |
758.87 |
1.0037 |
761.64 |
|
2.9 |
2,617.1 |
758.87 |
355.5 |
812.64 |
268.4 |
1.0078 |
786.97 |
2,704.2 |
784.20 |
1.0045 |
787.73 |
|
2.1 |
2,704.2 |
784.20 |
326.8 |
838.22 |
305.4 |
.9882 |
791.25 |
2,725.6 |
806.09 |
1.0040 |
809.31 |
|
1.3 |
2,725.6 |
806.09 |
333.0 |
853.33 |
257.1 |
1.0192 |
832.21 |
2,801.6 |
819.49 |
1.0040 |
822.76 |
|
1 2.5 |
2,801.6 |
819.49 |
337.5 |
892.31 |
271.6 |
1.0281 |
862.74 |
2,867.5 |
842.87 |
1.0043 |
846.48 |
|
3.5 |
2,867.5 |
842.87 |
338.8 |
950.37 |
282.6 |
1.0475 |
913.77 |
2,923.7 |
878.22 |
1.0051 |
882.66 |
|
... |
2,923.7 |
878.22 |
88.3 |
968.28 |
69.6 |
1.1000 |
966.04 |
2,942.3 |
878.84 |
1.0045 |
882.83 |
|
... |
2,942.3 |
878.84 |
88.3 |
974.38 |
68.3 |
1.0200 |
896.42 |
2,962.3 |
881.29 |
1.0045 |
885.28 |
|
... |
2,962.3 |
881.29 |
88.3 |
980.49 |
68.3 |
1.0200 |
898.91 |
2,982.4 |
883.82 |
1.0045 |
887.82 |
|
2.8 |
2,982.4 |
883.82 |
82.7 |
1,014.22 |
66.9 |
.9200 |
835.90 |
2,998.2 |
913.12 |
1.0045 |
917.26 |
|
... |
2,998.2 |
913.12 |
91.9 |
1,019.16 |
70.9 |
1.1000 |
1,004.43 |
3,019.2 |
914.21 |
1.0045 |
918.35 |
|
... |
3,019.2 |
914.21 |
91.9 |
1,024.10 |
69.5 |
1.0200 |
932.49 |
3,041.6 |
917.11 |
1.0045 |
921.26 |
|
... |
3,041.6 |
917.11 |
91.9 |
1,029.04 |
69.5 |
1.0200 |
935.45 |
3,064.0 |
920.05 |
1.0045 |
924.22 |
|
2.9 |
3,064.0 |
920.05 |
86.1 |
1,063.97 |
68.1 |
.9200 |
871.01 |
3,082.0 |
951.70 |
1.0045 |
956.01 |
|
... |
3,082.0 |
951.70 |
95.3 |
1,069.95 |
67.6 |
1.1000 |
1,046.87 |
3,109.7 |
953.26 |
1.0045 |
957.57 |
|
... |
3,109.7 |
953.26 |
95.3 |
1,075.94 |
66.3 |
1.0200 |
972.32 |
3,138.7 |
956.58 |
1.0045 |
960.91 |
|
... |
3,138.7 |
956.58 |
95.3 |
1,081.92 |
66.3 |
1.0200 |
975.71 |
3,167.7 |
959.95 |
1.0045 |
964.30 |
|
3.0 |
3,167.7 |
959.95 |
89.3 |
1,120.54 |
65.0 |
.9200 |
909.66 |
3,192.0 |
994.06 |
1.0045 |
998.57 |
|
... |
3,192.0 |
994.06 |
98.4 |
1,126.80 |
70.0 |
1.1000 |
1,093.47 |
3,220.4 |
995.96 |
1.0045 |
1,000.47 |
|
... |
3,220.4 |
995.96 |
98.4 |
1,133.05 |
68.7 |
1.0200 |
1,015.88 |
3,250.2 |
999.69 |
1.0045 |
1,004.22 |
|
... |
3,250.2 |
999.69 |
98.4 |
1,139.30 |
68.7 |
1.0200 |
1,019.68 |
3,280.0 |
1,003.46 |
1.0045 |
1,008.00 |
|
3.1 |
3,280.0 |
1,003.46 |
92.2 |
1,181.06 |
67.3 |
.9200 |
951.82 |
3,304.9 |
1,040.36 |
1.0045 |
1,045.07 |
|
... |
3,304.9 |
1,040.36 |
102.0 |
1,186.80 |
72.7 |
1.1000 |
1,144.39 |
3,334.2 |
1,042.57 |
1.0045 |
1,047.29 |
|
... |
3,334.2 |
1,042.57 |
102.0 |
1,192.54 |
71.3 |
1.0200 |
1,063.42 |
3,365.0 |
1,046.68 |
1.0045 |
1,051.42 |
|
... |
3,365.0 |
1,046.68 |
102.0 |
1,198.28 |
71.3 |
1.0200 |
1,067.61 |
3,395.8 |
1,050.79 |
1.0045 |
1,055.55 |
|
3.2 |
3,395.8 |
1,050.79 |
95.6 |
1,242.55 |
69.9 |
.9200 |
997.68 |
3,421.5 |
1,090.63 |
1.0045 |
1,095.57 |
|
... |
3,421.5 |
1,090.63 |
105.1 |
1,247.13 |
75.7 |
1.1000 |
1,199.69 |
3,450.9 |
1,093.00 |
1.0045 |
1,097.95 |
|
... |
3,450.9 |
1,093.00 |
105.1 |
1,251.71 |
74.3 |
1.0200 |
1,114.86 |
3,481.8 |
1,097.33 |
1.0045 |
1,102.30 |
|
... |
3,481.8 |
1,097.33 |
105.1 |
1,256.30 |
74.3 |
1.0200 |
1,119.28 |
3,512.7 |
1,101.62 |
1.0045 |
1,106.61 |
|
3.3 |
3,512.7 |
1,101.62 |
98.5 |
1,302.49 |
72.8 |
.9200 |
1,046.96 |
3,538.4 |
1,144.45 |
1.0045 |
1,149.63 |
|
... |
3,538.4 |
1,144.45 |
108.2 |
1,306.59 |
79.3 |
1.1000 |
1,258.89 |
3,567.4 |
1,146.83 |
1.0045 |
1,152.02 |
|
... |
3,567.4 |
1,146.83 |
108.2 |
1,310.70 |
77.7 |
1.0200 |
1,169.76 |
3,598.0 |
1,151.26 |
1.0045 |
1,156.48 |
|
... |
3,598.0 |
1,151.26 |
108.2 |
1,314.80 |
77.7 |
1.0200 |
1,174.29 |
3,628.5 |
1,155.65 |
1.0045 |
1,160.88 |
|
3.3 |
3,628.5 |
1,155.65 |
101.4 |
1,362.43 |
76.1 |
.9200 |
1,098.30 |
3,653.8 |
1,200.47 |
1.0045 |
1,205.91 |
|
... |
3,653.8 |
1,200.47 |
111.4 |
1,366.55 |
83.7 |
1.1000 |
1,320.52 |
3,681.5 |
1,202.77 |
1.0045 |
1,208.22 |
|
... |
3,681.5 |
1,202.77 |
111.4 |
1,370.66 |
82.0 |
1.0200 |
1,226.83 |
3,710.9 |
1,207.28 |
1.0045 |
1,212.75 |
|
... |
3,710.9 |
1,207.28 |
111.4 |
1,374.78 |
82.0 |
1.0200 |
1,231.42 |
3,740.3 |
1,211.74 |
1.0045 |
1,217.23 |
|
3.3 |
3,740.3 |
1,211.74 |
104.4 |
1,424.40 |
80.4 |
.9200 |
1,151.61 |
3,764.3 |
1,258.67 |
1.0045 |
1,264.37 |
|
... |
3,764.3 |
1,258.67 |
114.7 |
1,428.62 |
94.9 |
1.1000 |
1,384.54 |
3,784.1 |
1,260.67 |
1.0045 |
1,266.38 |
|
... |
3,784.1 |
1,260.67 |
114.7 |
1,432.85 |
93.0 |
1.0200 |
1,285.88 |
3,805.8 |
1,265.24 |
1.0045 |
1,270.97 |
|
... |
3,805.8 |
1,265.24 |
114.7 |
1,437.07 |
93.0 |
1.0200 |
1,290.54 |
3,827.5 |
1,269.77 |
1.0045 |
1,275.52 |
|
3.3 |
3,827.5 |
1,269.77 |
107.5 |
1,488.86 |
91.2 |
.9200 |
1,206.76 |
3,843.8 |
1,319.14 |
1.0045 |
1,325.11 |
|
... |
3,843.8 |
1,319.14 |
118.4 |
1,493.55 |
94.8 |
1.1000 |
1,451.05 |
3,867.3 |
1,321.24 |
1.0045 |
1,327.22 |
|
... |
3,867.3 |
1,321.24 |
118.4 |
1,498.24 |
93.0 |
1.0200 |
1,347.66 |
3,892.7 |
1,325.99 |
1.0045 |
1,332.00 |
|
... |
3,892.7 |
1,325.99 |
118.4 |
1,502.93 |
93.0 |
1.0200 |
1,352.51 |
3,918.1 |
1,330.71 |
1.0045 |
1,336.73 |
|
3.3 |
3,918.1 |
1,330.71 |
110.9 |
1,557.37 |
91.1 |
.9200 |
1,264.67 |
3,937.9 |
1,382.33 |
1.0045 |
1,388.59 |
1 Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources: See sources at end of table III.D5.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001