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| Actuarial Publications |
Summary of Provisions That Would Change the Social Security Program |
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Description of Proposed Provisions:
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Estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report
| Printer-friendly Version (PDF) |
| Change from present law [percent of payroll] |
Shortfall eliminated | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long-range actuarial balance |
Annual balance in 75th year |
Long-range actuarial balance |
Annual balance in 75th year |
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| Present law shortfall in long-range actuarial balance is 2.66 percent of payroll and in annual balance for the 75th year is 4.35 percent of payroll. | ||||||
| C1.1 |
After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those age 62 in 2022,
increase the NRA 1 month every 2 years until the NRA reaches 68.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
0.36 | 0.69 | 13% | 16% | |
| C1.2 |
After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those age 62 in 2022,
increase the NRA 2 months per year until the NRA reaches 68.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Liebman, MacGuineas, Samwick) |
0.45 | 0.69 | 17% | 16% | |
| C1.3 |
After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those age 62 in 2022,
index the NRA to maintain a constant ratio of expected retirement years
(life expectancy at NRA) to potential work years (NRA minus 20). We assume
the NRA will increase 1 month every 2 years.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Ryan 2010) | memo (AARP) | memo (Ryan 2008) | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
0.52 | 1.53 | 20% | 35% | |
| C1.4 |
After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those age 62 in 2022,
increase the NRA 2 months per year until it reaches 69 for individuals
attaining age 62 in 2034. Thereafter, increase the NRA 1 month every 2 years.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Ribble) | memo (Chaffetz) |
1.06 | 2.18 | 40% | 50% | |
| C1.5 |
Starting in 2017, allow workers to choose whether to have their payroll tax
rate reduced by 2 percentage points. For each calendar year that a worker
chooses to have their payroll tax reduced, their normal retirement age (NRA)
increases 1 month. We assume 2/3 of workers each year will choose this payroll
reduction. The General Fund of the Treasury reimburses the OASI and DI Trust
Funds for the reduction in payroll tax revenue.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Landry) |
0.67 | 1.25 | 25% | 29% | |
| C1.6 |
After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those age 62 in 2022,
increase the NRA by 1 month every 2 years until the NRA reaches 69. Also
increase the age up to which the delayed retirement credit may be earned
at the same rate (from 70 to 72). No change to earliest eligibility age.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center October 2016) | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center June 2016) |
0.50 | 1.34 | 19% | 31% | |
| C1.7 |
After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those attaining age
62 in 2022, increase the NRA by 3 months per year starting for attaining
age 62 in 2023 until it reaches 69 for those attaining age 62 in 2030.
Increase the age up to which delayed retirement credits may be earned from
70 to 72 on the same schedule. Increase the widow(er) NRA in the same manner.
The earliest eligibility age (EEA) for worker's and widow(er)'s benefit is
unchanged.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson 2016) |
0.84 | 1.33 | 32% | 31% | |
| C2.1 |
Increase the earliest eligibility age (EEA) by two months per year for
those age 62 starting in 2018 and ending in 2035 (EEA reaches 65 for
those age 62 in 2035).
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (AARP) |
-0.07 | -0.42 | -3% | -10% | |
| C2.2 |
After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those age 62 in
2022, index the NRA to maintain a constant ratio of expected retirement
years (life expectancy at NRA) to potential work years (NRA minus 20).
We assume the NRA will increase 1 month every 2 years. Also, raise the
earliest eligibility age (EEA) for retired-workers, aged widow(er)s,
and disabled widow(er)s by the same amount as the NRA starting for those
attaining EEA in 2017.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (NRC/NAPA) | memo (Warshawsky) |
0.51 | 1.41 | 19% | 32% | |
| C2.3 |
After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those age 62 in
2022, index the NRA to maintain a constant ratio of expected retirement
years (life expectancy at NRA) to potential work years (NRA minus 20).
We assume the NRA will increase 1 month every 2 years. Also, increase
the earliest eligibility age (EEA) by the same amount as the NRA starting
for those age 62 in 2022 so as to maintain a 5 year difference between
the two ages. Include a "hardship exemption" with no EEA/NRA change for
a worker with 25 years of earnings (with 4 quarters of coverage each),
and average indexed monthly earnings (AIME) less than 250 percent of the
poverty level (wage-indexed from 2013). The hardship exemption is phased
out for those with AIME above 400 percent of the poverty level.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Fiscal Commission) |
0.40 | 1.14 | 15% | 26% | |
| C2.4 |
After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those age 62 in 2022,
increase both the NRA and the earliest eligibility age (EEA) by 36/47 of a
month per year until the NRA and EEA reach 70 and 65 respectively. For each
year, the computed NRA and EEA round down to the next lower full month.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Lummis) |
0.74 | 1.92 | 28% | 44% | |
| C2.5 |
Increase the normal retirement age (NRA) 3 months per year starting for
those age 62 in 2017 until the NRA reaches 70 in 2032. Thereafter, index
the NRA to maintain a constant ratio of expected retirement years (life
expectancy at NRA) to potential work years (NRA minus 20). We assume the
NRA will increase 1 month every 2 years. Also, increase the earliest
eligibility age (EEA) from 62 to 64 at the same time the NRA increases
from 67 to 69; that is, for those attaining age 62 in 2021 through 2028.
Keep EEA at 64 thereafter.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Graham, Paul, Lee) |
1.43 | 2.71 | 54% | 62% | |
| C2.6 |
Increase the normal retirement age (NRA) and the earliest eligibility age
(EEA) for those age 62 in 2020-21 to 68 and 63, respectively, and then by
3 months per year in 2022-25 to 69 and 64, respectively.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Hutchison) |
0.89 | 1.15 | 33% | 26% | |
| C2.7 |
Increase the normal retirement age (NRA) and the earliest eligibility age
(EEA) for those age 62 starting in 2017 by 3 months per year until EEA
reaches 64 in 2024 and NRA reaches 69 in 2028.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Hutchison) |
0.85 | 1.15 | 32% | 26% | |
| C2.8 |
Starting in 2019, convert all disabled-worker beneficiaries to retired-worker
status upon attainment of their earliest eligibility age (EEA) rather than
their normal retirement age (NRA). After conversion, apply the early retirement
reduction for retirement at EEA (currently about 27.5 percent for those age 62
in 2019) phased in over 40 years.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Warshawsky) |
0.44 | 0.82 | 16% | 19% | |
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