Long Range Solvency Provisions

Description of Proposed Provision:
F3: Expand covered earnings to include employer and employee premiums for employer-sponsored group health insurance (ESI). Starting in 2028, phase out the OASDI payroll tax exclusion for ESI premiums. Set an exclusion level at the 75th percentile of premium distribution in 2028, with amounts above that subject to the payroll tax. Reduce the exclusion level each year by 10 percent of the 2028 exclusion level until fully eliminated in 2038.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

	Proposal				Change from Current Law
	Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll			Trust fund ratio as of January 1	Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll
Calendar year	Cost rate	Income rate	Annual balance	Trust fund ratio as of January 1	Cost rate	Income rate	Annual balance
2024	14.71	13.03	-1.68	188	0.00	0.00	0.00
2025	15.00	12.89	-2.11	171	0.00	0.00	0.00
2026	15.20	13.07	-2.13	152	0.00	0.00	0.00
2027	15.36	13.11	-2.25	134	0.00	0.00	0.00
2028	15.42	13.27	-2.14	117	0.00	0.14	0.14
2029	15.47	13.43	-2.04	102	0.00	0.27	0.27
2030	15.53	13.58	-1.94	87	0.00	0.40	0.40
2031	15.58	13.74	-1.83	73	0.00	0.54	0.54
2032	15.60	13.90	-1.70	61	0.00	0.68	0.68
2033	15.66	14.09	-1.58	50	0.00	0.82	0.82
2034	15.78	14.25	-1.53	40	0.01	0.97	0.96
2035	15.89	14.40	-1.49	30	0.01	1.12	1.11
2036	16.00	14.57	-1.44	21	0.01	1.27	1.26
2037	16.11	14.73	-1.38	12	0.02	1.42	1.41
2038	16.20	14.89	-1.31	4	0.02	1.58	1.56
2039	16.28	14.92	-1.36	—	0.03	1.60	1.57
2040	16.36	14.94	-1.42	—	0.04	1.62	1.58
2041	16.43	14.96	-1.47	—	0.05	1.63	1.58
2042	16.49	14.98	-1.51	—	0.06	1.65	1.59
2043	16.55	15.00	-1.55	—	0.07	1.67	1.59
2044	16.60	15.02	-1.58	—	0.09	1.68	1.60
2045	16.65	15.04	-1.61	—	0.10	1.70	1.60
2046	16.70	15.06	-1.64	—	0.12	1.71	1.60
2047	16.76	15.08	-1.68	—	0.13	1.73	1.60
2048	16.82	15.10	-1.71	—	0.15	1.75	1.59
2049	16.88	15.12	-1.76	—	0.17	1.76	1.59
2050	16.95	15.14	-1.81	—	0.19	1.78	1.59
2051	17.03	15.16	-1.86	—	0.22	1.80	1.58
2052	17.11	15.19	-1.92	—	0.24	1.81	1.57
2053	17.20	15.21	-1.99	—	0.27	1.83	1.56
2054	17.29	15.23	-2.06	—	0.29	1.85	1.55
2055	17.40	15.25	-2.14	—	0.32	1.86	1.54
2056	17.51	15.28	-2.23	—	0.35	1.88	1.53
2057	17.63	15.30	-2.32	—	0.38	1.90	1.52
2058	17.75	15.33	-2.42	—	0.41	1.92	1.50
2059	17.87	15.35	-2.52	—	0.45	1.93	1.48
2060	17.99	15.37	-2.61	—	0.48	1.95	1.47
2061	18.10	15.40	-2.71	—	0.52	1.97	1.45
2062	18.21	15.42	-2.79	—	0.56	1.98	1.43
2063	18.32	15.45	-2.88	—	0.60	2.00	1.40
2064	18.43	15.47	-2.96	—	0.64	2.02	1.38
2065	18.54	15.49	-3.04	—	0.68	2.04	1.36
2066	18.64	15.51	-3.13	—	0.73	2.06	1.33
2067	18.75	15.54	-3.21	—	0.77	2.07	1.30
2068	18.86	15.56	-3.30	—	0.82	2.09	1.28
2069	18.98	15.58	-3.39	—	0.86	2.11	1.25
2070	19.09	15.61	-3.49	—	0.91	2.13	1.22
2071	19.21	15.63	-3.58	—	0.96	2.15	1.19
2072	19.32	15.65	-3.66	—	1.00	2.16	1.16
2073	19.43	15.68	-3.75	—	1.05	2.18	1.13
2074	19.53	15.70	-3.83	—	1.10	2.20	1.10
2075	19.63	15.72	-3.90	—	1.14	2.22	1.08
2076	19.71	15.74	-3.97	—	1.19	2.24	1.05
2077	19.79	15.76	-4.03	—	1.23	2.25	1.02
2078	19.86	15.78	-4.07	—	1.27	2.27	1.00
2079	19.91	15.80	-4.11	—	1.31	2.29	0.98
2080	19.95	15.82	-4.13	—	1.35	2.31	0.95
2081	19.98	15.84	-4.14	—	1.39	2.32	0.93
2082	20.00	15.86	-4.14	—	1.43	2.34	0.91
2083	20.01	15.87	-4.14	—	1.46	2.36	0.90
2084	20.01	15.89	-4.12	—	1.50	2.38	0.88
2085	20.00	15.90	-4.09	—	1.53	2.39	0.87
2086	19.98	15.92	-4.06	—	1.56	2.41	0.85
2087	19.95	15.93	-4.02	—	1.58	2.43	0.84
2088	19.91	15.94	-3.97	—	1.61	2.44	0.83
2089	19.88	15.96	-3.93	—	1.64	2.46	0.82
2090	19.85	15.97	-3.88	—	1.66	2.48	0.81
2091	19.83	15.98	-3.85	—	1.69	2.49	0.81
2092	19.82	16.00	-3.82	—	1.71	2.51	0.80
2093	19.82	16.01	-3.81	—	1.74	2.53	0.79
2094	19.83	16.03	-3.80	—	1.76	2.54	0.78
2095	19.85	16.04	-3.81	—	1.79	2.56	0.77
2096	19.89	16.06	-3.83	—	1.81	2.58	0.76
2097	19.93	16.08	-3.86	—	1.84	2.59	0.75
2098	19.99	16.10	-3.89	—	1.86	2.61	0.75
2099	20.05	16.12	-3.93	—	1.89	2.63	0.74

Summarized Estimates

	Proposal				Change from Current Law
Years	Cost rate	Income rate	Actuarial balance	Year of reserve depletion¹	Cost rate	Income rate	Actuarial balance
2024-2098	17.92%	15.52%	-2.40%	2038	0.62%	1.72%	1.10%
¹ Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2035.

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2024 Trustees Report.

Detailed Single Year Tables

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

Summarized Estimates