I. |
INTRODUCTION
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II. |
OVERVIEW
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A. |
HIGHLIGHTS
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B. |
TRUST FUND FINANCIAL OPERATIONS IN 2009
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C. |
ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE
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D. |
PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE FINANCIAL STATUS
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E. |
CONCLUSION
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III. |
FINANCIAL OPERATIONS OF THE TRUST FUNDS AND LEGISLATIVE CHANGES IN THE LAST YEAR
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A. |
OPERATIONS OF THE OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE (OASI) AND DISABILITY INSURANCE (DI) TRUST FUNDS, IN CALENDAR YEAR 2009
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1. | OASI Trust Fund
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2. | DI Trust Fund
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3. | OASI and DI Trust Funds, Combined
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B. |
SOCIAL SECURITY AMENDMENTS SINCE THE 2009 REPORT
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IV. |
ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES
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A. |
SHORT-RANGE ESTIMATES
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1. | Operations of the OASI Trust Fund
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2. | Operations of the DI Trust Fund
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3. | Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds
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4. | Factors Underlying Changes in 10-Year Trust Fund Ratio Estimates From the 2009 Report
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B. |
LONG-RANGE ESTIMATES
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1. | Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances
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2. | Comparison of Workers to Beneficiaries
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3. | Trust Fund Ratios
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4. | Summarized Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances
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5. | Additional Measures of OASDI Unfunded Obligations
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6. | Test of Long-Range Close Actuarial Balance
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7. | Reasons for Change in Actuarial Balance From Last Report
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V. |
ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES
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A. |
DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS
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1. | Fertility Assumptions
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2. | Mortality Assumptions
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3. | Immigration Assumptions
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4. | Total Population Estimates
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5. | Life Expectancy Estimates
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B. |
ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS
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1. | Productivity Assumptions
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2. | Price Inflation Assumptions
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3. | Average Earnings Assumptions
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4. | Assumed Real-Wage Differentials
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5. | Labor Force and Unemployment Projections
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6. | Gross Domestic Product Projections
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7. | Interest Rates
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C. |
PROGRAM-SPECIFIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS
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1. | Automatically Adjusted Program Parameters
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2. | Covered Employment
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3. | Taxable Payroll and Payroll Tax Revenue
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4. | Insured Population
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5. | Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Beneficiaries
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6. | Disability Insurance Beneficiaries
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7. | Average Benefits
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8. | Benefit Payments
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9. | Administrative Expenses
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10. | Railroad Retirement Financial Interchange
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11. | Military Service Transfers
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12. | Income From Taxation of Benefits
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VI. |
APPENDICES
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A. |
HISTORY OF OASI AND DI TRUST FUND OPERATIONS
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B. |
HISTORY OF ACTUARIAL BALANCE ESTIMATES
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C. |
FISCAL YEAR HISTORICAL DATA AND PROJECTIONS THROUGH 2019
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D. |
LONG-RANGE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
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1. | Total Fertility Rate
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2. | Death Rates
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3. | Net Immigration
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4. | Real-Wage Differential
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5. | Consumer Price Index
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6. | Real Interest Rate
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7. | Disability Incidence Rates
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8. | Disability Termination Rates
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E. |
STOCHASTIC PROJECTIONS
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1. | Background
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2. | Methodology
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3. | Results
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F. |
ESTIMATES FOR OASDI AND HI, SEPARATE AND COMBINED
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1. | Estimates as a Percentage of Taxable Payroll
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2. | Estimates as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product
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3. | Estimates in Dollars
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G. |
ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT DISBURSEMENTS FROM THE OASI TRUST FUND WITH RESPECT TO DISABLED BENEFICIARIES
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H. |
GLOSSARY
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STATEMENT OF ACTUARIAL OPINION |