Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
 Contents Glossary




 

V. ESTIMATES BASED ON ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS

B. HIGH-COST ASSUMPTIONS

Table V.B3—Cost-of-Living Benefit Increases, Average Wage Index Increases, OASDI Contribution and Benefit Bases, and Retirement Earnings Test Exempt Amounts
(High-cost alternative, calendar years 2001-10)
Year
  OASDI
benefit increase 1
(percent)
  Increase in average
wage index 2
(percent)
  OASDI
contribution and
benefit base
Retirement earnings test exempt amounts
  Under age 65
  Age 65 or older 3
2001
3.1
3.1
$80,400
$10,680
$25,000
2002
3.5
3.6
84,600
11,280
30,000
2003
5.2
6.6
87,300
11,640
30,960
2004
6.2
4.4
90,600
12,000
32,040
2005
4.0
5.1
96,600
12,840
34,200
2006
3.9
5.8
100,800
13,320
35,640
2007
4.1
5.0
105,900
14,040
37,560
2008
4.3
4.7
112,200
14,880
39,720
2009
4.3
4.7
117,900
15,600
41,640
2010
4.3
4.8
123,300
16,320
43,680

1 Effective with benefits payable for December in each year.

2 Increase in the average wage index over the prior year. See table V.B2 for projected dollar amounts of the average wage index.

3 Public Law 106-182 eliminates the earnings test for workers attaining normal retirement age in 2000 or later. Exception: the test still applies to all months prior to attainment of the full retirement age in the calendar year the beneficiary attains full retirement age.

Source: Benefit increases based on assumed future growth in CPI; all other future figures based on average amount of total wages.

Note: Estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report high-cost set of assumptions.

Table V.B4—Selected OASDI Program Amounts Determined Under the Automatic-Adjustment Provisions
(High-cost alternative, calendar years 2001-10)
Year
AIME "bend points" in PIA formula
PIA "bend points" in maximum-family-benefit formula
  Earnings
required
for a
quarter
of coverage
  "Old-law"
contribution and
benefit base
  First
  Second
  First
  Second
  Third
2001
$561
$3,381
$717
$1,034
$1,349
$830
$59,700
2002
590
3,559
754
1,089
1,420
870
63,000
2003
609
3,670
778
1,123
1,464
900
64,800
2004
631
3,802
806
1,163
1,517
930
67,200
2005
673
4,054
859
1,241
1,618
990
71,700
2006
702
4,231
897
1,295
1,689
1,030
74,700
2007
738
4,449
943
1,361
1,775
1,090
78,600
2008
781
4,709
998
1,441
1,879
1,150
83,400
2009
820
4,945
1,048
1,513
1,974
1,210
87,600
2010
859
5,180
1,098
1,585
2,067
1,270
91,500

Source: Figures based on average amount of total wages.

Note: Estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report high-cost set of assumptions.

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December 26, 2001