Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Year1 |
Reimbursement |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$215.1 |
97.0 |
$208.7 |
$2.6 |
$211.3 |
1.116 |
$235.9 |
Dec. 31, 1976 |
|
179.6 |
98.3 |
176.7 |
2.2 |
178.9 |
1.276 |
228.2 |
Dec. 31, 1977 |
|
161.6 |
98.0 |
158.4 |
2.2 |
160.6 |
1.435 |
230.5 |
Dec. 31, 1978 |
|
145.2 |
96.8 |
140.6 |
1.6 |
142.1 |
1.155 |
164.1 |
Dec. 31, 1979 |
|
131.2 |
96.7 |
126.9 |
1.3 |
128.2 |
1.168 |
149.8 |
Dec. 31, 1980 |
|
121.1 |
96.5 |
116.9 |
1.1 |
117.9 |
1.191 |
140.4 |
Dec. 31, 1981 |
|
112.9 |
96.6 |
109.0 |
1.0 |
110.0 |
1.206 |
138.7 |
Dec. 31, 1982 |
|
102.3 |
96.1 |
98.3 |
.7 |
99.0 |
1.258 |
124.5 |
Dec. 31, 1983 |
|
89.1 |
96.2 |
85.7 |
.7 |
86.4 |
1.215 |
105.0 |
Dec. 31, 1984 |
|
74.3 |
95.9 |
71.2 |
.6 |
71.7 |
1.259 |
90.3 |
Jan. 1, 1986 |
|
60.1 |
95.5 |
57.4 |
.5 |
57.9 |
1.198 |
69.4 |
Dec. 31, 1986 |
|
49.2 |
95.3 |
46.9 |
.3 |
47.2 |
1.157 |
54.6 |
Dec. 31, 1987 |
|
38.2 |
95.0 |
36.3 |
.2 |
36.5 |
1.167 |
42.6 |
Dec. 31, 1988 |
|
30.3 |
94.7 |
28.7 |
.2 |
28.9 |
1.174 |
34.0 |
Dec. 31, 1989 |
|
23.0 |
94.4 |
21.7 |
.1 |
21.8 |
1.167 |
25.5 |
Dec. 31, 1990 |
|
17.1 |
93.9 |
16.1 |
.1 |
16.2 |
1.165 |
18.9 |
Dec. 31, 1991 |
|
13.0 |
93.4 |
12.2 |
.1 |
12.2 |
1.155 |
14.1 |
Dec. 31, 1992 |
|
9.5 |
92.8 |
8.8 |
.1 |
8.8 |
1.138 |
10.1 |
Dec. 31, 1993 |
|
6.7 |
92.3 |
6.2 |
6.2 |
1.131 |
7.0 |
Dec. 31, 1994 |
||
4.3 |
91.7 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
1.140 |
4.5 |
Dec. 31, 1995 |
||
2.7 |
90.8 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
1.134 |
2.8 |
Dec. 31, 1996 |
||
1.8 |
90.4 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.134 |
1.8 |
Dec. 31, 1997 |
||
.7 |
89.2 |
.6 |
.6 |
1.131 |
.7 |
Dec. 31, 1998 |
||
.4 |
88.6 |
.3 |
.3 |
1.113 |
.4 |
Dec. 31, 1999 |
||
-.2 |
86.6 |
-.1 |
.000 |
Dec. 31, 2000 |
||||
-.5 |
87.4 |
-.5 |
-.6 |
1.125 |
-.7 |
Dec. 31, 2001 |
||
87.0 |
1.102 |
Dec. 31, 2002 |
||||||
.1 |
87.0 |
.1 |
1.109 |
.1 |
Dec. 31, 2003 |
|||
... |
1.110 |
Dec. 31, 2004 |
||||||
... |
1.112 |
Dec. 31, 2005 |
||||||
... |
1.114 |
Dec. 31, 2006 |
||||||
... |
1.114 |
Dec. 31, 2007 |
||||||
... |
1.114 |
Dec. 31, 2008 |
||||||
... |
1.114 |
Dec. 31, 2009 |
||||||
... |
1.114 |
Dec. 31, 2010 |
||||||
... |
1.114 |
Dec. 31, 2011 |
1 Defined as the period October 1-September 30 (see Public Law 93-344). 2 Less than $50,000. |
· Historical fraction reimbursable, reimbursable benefit payments, and administrative expenses based on SSA administrative records.
· Future fraction reimbursable and administrative expenses projected based on historical trends.
· Future reimbursable benefit payments computed by multiplying total benefit payments by fraction reimbursable.
· Total principal computed as sum of reimbursable benefit payments and administrative expenses.
· Accumulation factor computed from monthly interest rates payable on trust fund investments.
· Incurred reimbursement computed by multiplying total principal by accumulation factor.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001