Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Year |
In force beginning of year |
Awards during year |
Terminations during year |
In force end of year |
Current-payment status end of year |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mothers |
||||||||||||
8.0 |
643.9 |
$136.00 |
111.4 |
$153.39 |
110.3 |
0.9571 |
$140.58 |
645.0 |
$149.08 |
0.9902 |
$147.62 |
|
14.3 |
620.4 |
216.02 |
99.9 |
247.60 |
110.6 |
.9655 |
238.39 |
609.7 |
248.57 |
1.0026 |
249.21 |
|
3.1 |
417.8 |
327.14 |
67.0 |
324.39 |
80.1 |
.9479 |
319.69 |
404.6 |
338.63 |
1.0017 |
339.20 |
|
1.3 |
404.6 |
338.63 |
64.1 |
332.88 |
84.1 |
.9698 |
332.68 |
384.7 |
343.60 |
1.0031 |
344.67 |
|
4.2 |
384.7 |
343.60 |
59.0 |
352.82 |
75.7 |
.9813 |
351.35 |
367.9 |
358.57 |
1.0018 |
359.23 |
|
4.0 |
367.9 |
358.57 |
57.9 |
365.60 |
69.9 |
.9734 |
363.00 |
355.9 |
373.67 |
1.0029 |
374.74 |
|
4.7 |
355.9 |
373.67 |
54.3 |
385.44 |
62.7 |
.9637 |
377.04 |
347.5 |
392.89 |
1.0053 |
394.97 |
|
5.4 |
347.5 |
392.89 |
52.6 |
407.24 |
60.2 |
.9761 |
404.20 |
339.9 |
414.80 |
1.0050 |
416.88 |
|
3.7 |
339.9 |
414.80 |
52.5 |
419.45 |
57.7 |
.9827 |
422.71 |
334.7 |
429.75 |
1.0061 |
432.35 |
|
3.0 |
334.7 |
429.75 |
51.0 |
432.39 |
58.9 |
.9922 |
439.17 |
326.8 |
441.67 |
1.0086 |
445.46 |
|
2.6 |
326.8 |
441.67 |
51.0 |
444.23 |
56.8 |
.9930 |
449.97 |
321.0 |
452.30 |
1.0084 |
456.10 |
|
2.8 |
321.0 |
452.30 |
49.5 |
462.43 |
57.7 |
.9685 |
450.33 |
312.8 |
467.26 |
1.0099 |
471.90 |
|
2.6 |
312.8 |
467.26 |
46.6 |
473.80 |
53.8 |
.9766 |
468.21 |
305.6 |
480.53 |
1.0099 |
485.28 |
|
2.9 |
305.6 |
480.53 |
43.5 |
507.26 |
54.2 |
.8654 |
427.89 |
294.9 |
508.59 |
1.0216 |
519.56 |
|
2.1 |
294.9 |
508.59 |
39.3 |
531.13 |
52.0 |
.9722 |
504.85 |
282.2 |
523.57 |
1.0246 |
536.45 |
|
1.3 |
282.2 |
523.57 |
38.1 |
543.99 |
48.2 |
.9757 |
517.50 |
272.2 |
534.56 |
1.0278 |
549.43 |
|
1 2.5 |
272.2 |
534.56 |
37.5 |
580.29 |
47.1 |
.9844 |
538.85 |
262.6 |
553.63 |
1.0299 |
570.19 |
|
3.5 |
262.6 |
553.63 |
35.9 |
611.64 |
46.3 |
.9801 |
561.60 |
252.2 |
580.60 |
1.0328 |
599.67 |
|
2.8 |
252.2 |
580.60 |
36.4 |
635.56 |
44.2 |
.9769 |
583.07 |
244.3 |
605.11 |
1.0328 |
624.99 |
|
2.9 |
244.3 |
605.11 |
36.0 |
665.59 |
43.2 |
.9767 |
608.16 |
237.1 |
631.82 |
1.0328 |
652.57 |
|
3.0 |
237.1 |
631.82 |
35.7 |
697.58 |
41.8 |
.9751 |
634.57 |
231.0 |
660.94 |
1.0328 |
682.65 |
|
3.1 |
231.0 |
660.94 |
35.4 |
731.83 |
40.9 |
.9738 |
663.58 |
225.5 |
692.58 |
1.0328 |
715.32 |
|
3.2 |
225.5 |
692.58 |
35.0 |
769.08 |
40.0 |
.9730 |
695.42 |
220.5 |
726.86 |
1.0328 |
750.74 |
|
3.3 |
220.5 |
726.86 |
34.5 |
805.71 |
39.2 |
.9710 |
729.09 |
215.8 |
763.57 |
1.0328 |
788.65 |
|
3.3 |
215.8 |
763.57 |
34.0 |
843.45 |
38.4 |
.9699 |
765.05 |
211.4 |
801.88 |
1.0328 |
828.22 |
|
3.3 |
211.4 |
801.88 |
33.6 |
883.15 |
37.7 |
.9696 |
803.19 |
207.3 |
841.79 |
1.0328 |
869.44 |
|
3.3 |
207.3 |
841.79 |
33.2 |
924.37 |
37.3 |
.9699 |
843.43 |
203.3 |
883.32 |
1.0328 |
912.33 |
|
3.3 |
203.3 |
883.32 |
32.8 |
968.16 |
36.5 |
.9704 |
885.45 |
199.6 |
926.57 |
1.0328 |
957.00 |
|
Fathers2 |
||||||||||||
8.0 |
... |
... |
4.9 |
99.59 |
.2 |
... |
108.02 |
4.6 |
99.17 |
.9036 |
89.61 |
|
14.3 |
21.0 |
142.29 |
7.9 |
151.50 |
5.8 |
.9141 |
148.67 |
23.1 |
162.35 |
.8808 |
142.99 |
|
3.1 |
27.2 |
210.92 |
5.3 |
205.48 |
4.7 |
.9753 |
212.08 |
27.8 |
216.10 |
.9045 |
195.47 |
|
1.3 |
27.8 |
216.10 |
5.2 |
216.40 |
6.9 |
.8050 |
176.23 |
26.1 |
229.61 |
.8909 |
204.57 |
|
4.2 |
26.1 |
229.61 |
5.1 |
235.17 |
5.0 |
.8942 |
213.95 |
26.1 |
243.35 |
.8868 |
215.80 |
|
4.0 |
26.1 |
243.35 |
4.8 |
248.68 |
5.0 |
.8861 |
224.25 |
25.9 |
257.85 |
.8906 |
229.63 |
|
4.7 |
25.9 |
257.85 |
4.5 |
268.89 |
4.1 |
.9021 |
243.53 |
26.4 |
273.86 |
.9034 |
247.39 |
|
5.4 |
26.4 |
273.86 |
4.6 |
291.67 |
4.4 |
.9363 |
270.27 |
26.6 |
292.18 |
.9055 |
264.56 |
|
3.7 |
26.6 |
292.18 |
4.9 |
304.53 |
4.2 |
.9358 |
283.56 |
27.3 |
306.28 |
.9146 |
280.12 |
|
3.0 |
27.3 |
306.28 |
5.1 |
318.54 |
7.2 |
.9783 |
308.63 |
25.2 |
318.03 |
.9421 |
299.63 |
|
2.6 |
25.2 |
318.03 |
5.0 |
337.27 |
5.8 |
.9956 |
324.85 |
24.4 |
328.88 |
.9587 |
315.30 |
|
2.8 |
24.4 |
328.88 |
4.8 |
351.04 |
5.7 |
.9383 |
317.24 |
23.6 |
345.76 |
.9666 |
334.21 |
|
2.6 |
23.6 |
345.76 |
4.7 |
367.05 |
4.8 |
.9258 |
328.43 |
23.5 |
362.64 |
.9688 |
351.33 |
|
2.9 |
23.5 |
362.64 |
4.1 |
403.82 |
5.0 |
.7753 |
289.31 |
22.6 |
397.41 |
1.0460 |
415.68 |
|
2.1 |
22.6 |
397.41 |
3.6 |
424.84 |
4.7 |
.9441 |
383.08 |
21.5 |
413.98 |
1.0577 |
437.88 |
|
1.3 |
21.5 |
413.98 |
3.8 |
435.85 |
4.2 |
.9492 |
398.08 |
21.0 |
426.62 |
1.0624 |
453.22 |
|
1 2.5 |
21.0 |
426.62 |
3.8 |
459.55 |
4.1 |
.9569 |
418.02 |
20.7 |
444.67 |
1.0663 |
474.13 |
|
3.5 |
20.7 |
444.67 |
3.8 |
496.11 |
4.1 |
.9571 |
440.49 |
20.5 |
470.91 |
1.0676 |
502.76 |
|
2.8 |
20.5 |
470.91 |
3.8 |
515.51 |
4.1 |
.9478 |
458.81 |
20.1 |
495.05 |
1.0676 |
528.54 |
|
2.9 |
20.1 |
495.05 |
3.7 |
539.87 |
4.0 |
.9487 |
483.28 |
19.8 |
520.44 |
1.0676 |
555.64 |
|
3.0 |
19.8 |
520.44 |
3.7 |
565.81 |
4.0 |
.9486 |
508.48 |
19.5 |
547.29 |
1.0676 |
584.31 |
|
3.1 |
19.5 |
547.29 |
3.6 |
593.60 |
3.9 |
.9472 |
534.44 |
19.2 |
575.93 |
1.0676 |
614.88 |
|
3.2 |
19.2 |
575.93 |
3.6 |
623.81 |
3.9 |
.9466 |
562.61 |
19.0 |
606.49 |
1.0676 |
647.51 |
|
3.3 |
19.0 |
606.49 |
3.6 |
653.53 |
3.8 |
.9460 |
592.66 |
18.7 |
638.62 |
1.0676 |
681.82 |
|
3.3 |
18.7 |
638.62 |
3.5 |
684.14 |
3.8 |
.9458 |
623.92 |
18.4 |
671.74 |
1.0676 |
717.18 |
|
3.3 |
18.4 |
671.74 |
3.5 |
716.33 |
3.7 |
.9458 |
656.31 |
18.1 |
705.98 |
1.0676 |
753.73 |
|
3.3 |
18.1 |
705.98 |
3.4 |
749.77 |
3.7 |
.9458 |
689.76 |
17.8 |
741.39 |
1.0676 |
791.54 |
|
3.3 |
17.8 |
741.39 |
3.4 |
785.29 |
3.6 |
.9463 |
724.76 |
17.5 |
778.12 |
1.0676 |
830.75 |
1 Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. 2 This benefit was not payable until March 19, 1975. |
· Number in force and number awarded shown earlier.
· Number terminated calculated as in force beginning of year plus awards during year minus in force end of year.
· Average benefit awarded, shown earlier.
· Historical ratio of average terminated benefit to average benefit in force computed by division of corresponding figures where the average benefit in force at the beginning of the year has been adjusted to the end-of-year rate; future ratios projected based on historical trend.
· Historical average terminated benefit computed by dividing (a) number in force at beginning of year times average benefit in force, plus number of awards times average benefit awarded at beginning-of-year rate, minus number in force at end of year times average benefit in force at beginning-of-year rates, by (b) number of terminations. Future average terminated benefit computed by applying applicable ratio to average benefit in force at beginning of year.
· Historical average benefit in force from 1-A Table In Force Supplement. Future average benefit in force at end of year computed by dividing (a) number in force at beginning of year times average benefit in force at end-of-year rate, plus number of awards times average benefit awarded at end-of-year rate, minus number of terminations times average terminated benefit at end of year rate, by (b) number in force at end of year.
· Historical ratio of average benefit in current-payment status to average benefit in force computed by division of corresponding figures; future ratios projected based on historical trend.
· Historical average benefit in current-payment status from 1-A Table Current-Payment Supplement; future average benefit computed by applying applicable ratio to average benefit in force.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001