Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
 Contents Glossary




 

III. BENEFIT PAYMENTS

E. OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE BENEFIT PAYMENTS

Table III.E4—Average Monthly Benefit to Minor Child Survivors of Deceased Workers In Force,
Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status
(Calendar years 1975-2010)
[Numbers in thousands]
Year
Benefit
increase
(percent)
In force
beginning
of year
Accessions
during year
Terminations
during year
In force
end of year
Current-payment
status end
of year
Number
Average
benefit
Awards
Conver-
sions
Average
benefit
Number
Ratio to
average
benefit
in force
beginning
of year
Average
benefit
Number
Average
benefit
Ratio to
average
benefit
in force
end of
year
Average
benefit
1975
8.0
2,258.6
$122.44
300.1
21.5
$132.47
369.7
0.8604
$113.77
2,210.6
$135.36
0.9990
$135.22
1976
6.4
2,210.6
135.36
272.3
30.4
147.10
351.7
.8756
126.10
2,161.5
147.37
.9986
147.16
1977
5.9
2,161.5
147.37
290.1
3.2
163.14
341.1
.8132
126.91
2,113.7
161.75
1.0008
161.88
1978
6.5
2,113.7
161.75
264.5
22.5
178.80
366.1
.8419
145.03
2,034.7
178.09
1.0010
178.26
1979
9.9
2,034.7
178.09
240.8
37.8
199.00
347.1
.8468
165.73
1,966.2
201.48
1.0007
201.63
1980
14.3
1,966.2
201.48
227.1
34.7
220.20
336.2
.8499
195.73
1,891.8
235.04
1.0009
235.25
1981
11.2
1,891.8
235.04
228.3
14.8
231.90
322.7
.8349
218.22
1,812.3
265.09
1.0024
265.73
1982
7.4
1,812.3
265.09
222.7
11.4
249.83
306.8
.7955
226.48
1,739.7
290.28
1.0040
291.44
1983
3.5
1,739.7
290.28
211.4
9.1
266.25
288.4
.8294
249.20
1,671.8
304.77
1.0078
307.16
1984
3.5
1,671.8
304.77
202.2
10.6
280.89
280.0
.8785
277.10
1,604.6
317.55
1.0100
320.73
1985
3.1
1,604.6
317.55
203.6
10.9
293.16
265.1
.8879
290.68
1,554.0
328.93
1.0112
332.61
1986
1.3
1,554.0
328.93
198.9
9.3
303.84
247.7
.9158
305.16
1,514.6
333.75
1.0154
338.90
1987
4.2
1,514.6
333.75
191.3
10.0
321.73
245.7
.9318
324.06
1,470.2
348.17
1.0165
353.92
1988
4.0
1,470.2
348.17
191.6
10.5
332.04
247.2
.9443
341.91
1,425.0
361.33
1.0183
367.96
1989
4.7
1,425.0
361.33
188.5
9.4
349.95
228.8
.9620
363.96
1,394.1
376.65
1.0204
384.34
1990
5.4
1,394.1
376.65
188.7
9.4
367.25
209.9
.9599
381.08
1,382.3
395.14
1.0219
403.80
1991
3.7
1,382.3
395.14
191.4
9.8
377.68
201.9
.9458
387.56
1,381.6
408.33
1.0212
416.98
1992
3.0
1,381.6
408.33
192.7
9.4
386.95
194.0
.9575
402.72
1,389.7
418.18
1.0226
427.64
1993
2.6
1,389.7
418.18
199.1
9.6
397.93
193.2
.9508
407.94
1,405.1
427.34
1.0225
436.96
1994
2.8
1,405.1
427.34
202.5
9.2
413.11
190.7
.9477
416.32
1,426.0
438.49
1.0234
448.73
1995
2.6
1,426.0
438.49
200.4
9.2
425.61
197.5
.9568
430.46
1,438.2
449.02
1.0240
459.79
1996
2.9
1,438.2
449.02
195.0
8.7
447.24
197.4
.8944
413.24
1,444.5
466.62
1.0249
478.23
1997
2.1
1,444.5
466.62
184.8
9.5
465.55
208.0
.9538
454.41
1,430.8
478.14
1.0250
490.09
1998
1.3
1,430.8
478.14
182.6
8.8
479.39
199.6
.9565
463.29
1,422.6
486.65
1.0252
498.93
1999
1 2.5
1,422.6
486.65
182.7
8.8
509.28
200.4
.9681
482.41
1,413.7
502.07
1.0257
514.96
2000
3.5
1,413.7
502.07
184.9
8.5
536.75
199.5
.9650
501.44
1,407.6
524.57
1.0261
538.27
2001
2.8
1,407.6
524.57
182.5
9.1
557.74
198.4
.9615
518.51
1,400.8
544.72
1.0261
558.95
2002
2.9
1,400.8
544.72
181.5
9.3
584.09
198.2
.9606
538.42
1,393.4
566.89
1.0261
581.70
2003
3.0
1,393.4
566.89
180.1
9.4
612.16
201.5
.9594
560.19
1,381.5
591.23
1.0261
606.68
2004
3.1
1,381.5
591.23
178.5
9.6
642.22
200.8
.9574
583.59
1,368.8
617.86
1.0261
634.00
2005
3.2
1,368.8
617.86
176.7
9.7
674.91
201.7
.9566
609.97
1,353.6
646.89
1.0261
663.78
2006
3.3
1,353.6
646.89
174.7
9.8
707.06
203.6
.9548
638.02
1,334.5
678.21
1.0261
695.92
2007
3.3
1,334.5
678.21
172.2
9.8
740.18
206.9
.9545
668.70
1,309.7
711.13
1.0261
729.70
2008
3.3
1,309.7
711.13
169.4
9.8
775.01
208.3
.9546
701.25
1,280.6
745.68
1.0261
765.15
2009
3.3
1,280.6
745.68
166.5
9.7
811.19
205.0
.9540
734.83
1,251.8
781.85
1.0261
802.27
2010
3.3
1,251.8
781.85
163.8
9.7
849.62
200.2
.9540
770.49
1,225.1
819.66
1.0261
841.07

1 Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent.

Sources:

· Number in force and total number awarded (including conversions), shown earlier.

· Number of conversions based on minor children of retired workers terminated prior to age 18.

· Number terminated calculated as in force beginning of year plus awards during year minus in force end of year.

· Average benefit awarded shown earlier.

· Historical ratio of average terminated benefit to average benefit in force computed by division of corresponding figures where the average benefit in force at the beginning of the year has been adjusted to the end-of-year rate; future ratios projected based on historical trend.

· Historical average terminated benefit computed by dividing (a) number in force at beginning of year times average benefit in force, plus number of awards times average benefit awarded at beginning-of-year rate, minus number in force at end of year times average benefit in force at beginning-of-year rates, by (b) number of terminations. Future average terminated benefit computed by applying applicable ratio to average benefit in force at beginning of year.

· Historical average benefit in force from 1-A Table In Force Supplement. Future average benefit in force at end of year computed by dividing (a) number in force at beginning of year times average benefit in force at end-of-year rate, plus number of awards times average benefit awarded at end-of-year rate, minus number of terminations times average terminated benefit at end of year rate, by (b) number in force at end of year.

· Historical ratio of average benefit in current-payment status to average benefit in force computed by division of corresponding figures; future ratios projected based on historical trend.

· Historical average benefit in current-payment status from 1-A Table Current-Payment Supplement; future average benefit computed by applying applicable ratio to average benefit in force.

Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.

Contents Glossary

List of Studies
December 26, 2001