Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001 Actuarial Study No. 115 Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.

III. BENEFIT PAYMENTS

E. OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE BENEFIT PAYMENTS

Sources:

· Insured population prepared by the Office of the Chief Actuary based on data from Continuous Work History Sample.

· Insured deaths prepared by the Office of the Chief Actuary based on mortality rates and insured population.

· Historical ratios of lump-sum deaths to insured deaths computed by dividing corresponding numbers. Future ratios projected by regression.

· Historical number of lump-sum deaths from SSA administrative records. Future figures computed by applying corresponding ratio to the number of insured deaths.

· Historical average benefit is computed as total amount divided by number of lump-sum deaths. Future figures projected based on historical trend and judgment.

· Historical total amounts are prepared by the Office of the Chief Actuary from SSA administrative records. Future figures computed by multiplying number of lump-sum deaths by average benefit.

Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.

List of Studies
December 26, 2001