Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
 Contents Glossary




 

III. BENEFIT PAYMENTS

E. OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE BENEFIT PAYMENTS

Table III.E1—Average Monthly Benefit of Retired Workers In Force, Awarded,
Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status
(By gender, calendar years 1975-2010)
[Numbers in thousands]
Year
  Benefit
increase
(percent)
In force
beginning of year
Awards
during year
Terminations
during year
In force
end of year
Current-payment status
end of year
  Number
  Average
benefit
  Number
  Average
benefit
  Number
  Ratio to
average
benefit
in force
beginning
of year
  Average
benefit
  Number
  Average
benefit
  Ratio to
average
benefit
in force
end of
year
  Average
benefit
Male
1975
8.0
9,316.3
$209.68
902.4
$239.67
611.2
0.7671
$173.72
9,607.5
$231.05
0.9857
$227.75
1980
14.3
10,569.0
331.38
942.1
425.00
681.4
.8934
338.39
10,829.7
385.33
.9866
380.18
1985
3.1
11,867.6
521.60
982.6
525.65
733.5
.8460
454.98
12,116.0
541.80
.9937
538.37
1986
1.3
12,116.0
541.80
1,009.8
543.30
737.8
.8609
472.49
12,388.3
552.94
.9943
549.78
1987
4.2
12,388.3
552.94
966.1
576.99
730.0
.8682
500.20
12,624.6
580.62
.9946
577.46
1988
4.0
12,624.6
580.62
955.9
603.71
767.0
.8853
534.61
12,813.5
607.98
.9949
604.85
1989
4.7
12,813.5
607.98
955.8
643.89
740.1
.8538
543.50
13,029.7
642.38
.9946
638.89
1990
5.4
13,029.7
642.38
967.0
688.99
748.2
.8802
595.97
13,248.3
682.52
.9952
679.27
1991
3.7
13,248.3
682.52
991.9
717.47
761.0
.9049
640.43
13,479.2
712.29
.9959
709.34
1992
3.0
13,479.2
712.29
999.2
743.36
763.1
.8924
654.70
13,715.1
738.76
.9955
735.47
1993
2.6
13,715.1
738.76
969.5
765.84
795.0
.9043
685.43
13,890.2
762.67
.9956
759.29
1994
2.8
13,890.2
762.67
939.2
792.99
796.4
.9109
714.18
14,033.0
788.59
.9958
785.24
1995
2.6
14,033.0
788.59
923.9
815.15
794.0
.9085
735.07
14,163.8
813.64
.9958
810.21
1996
2.9
14,163.8
813.64
902.0
844.35
799.1
.9163
767.20
14,267.6
841.61
.9958
838.11
1997
2.1
14,267.6
841.61
895.7
872.45
804.5
.9191
789.80
14,359.0
864.00
.9959
860.47
1998
1.3
14,359.0
864.00
894.9
893.89
813.8
.9189
804.26
14,440.0
880.39
.9961
876.93
1999
1 2.5
14,440.0
880.39
940.4
940.03
825.2
.9215
830.79
14,556.2
908.02
.9963
904.62
2000
3.5
14,556.2
908.02
1,116.5
1,023.53
825.1
.9179
862.64
14,845.1
950.39
1.0007
951.05
2001
2.8
14,845.1
950.39
951.5
1,061.30
846.9
.9506
928.76
14,945.2
985.10
1.0007
985.79
2002
2.9
14,945.2
985.10
1,001.4
1,115.24
854.6
.9494
962.38
15,092.0
1,023.31
1.0007
1,024.02
2003
3.0
15,092.0
1,023.31
1,016.4
1,152.49
861.5
.9450
996.06
15,246.9
1,063.85
1.0007
1,064.59
2004
3.1
15,246.9
1,063.85
1,076.2
1,186.99
869.0
.9407
1,031.83
15,454.1
1,106.76
1.0007
1,107.53
2005
3.2
15,454.1
1,106.76
1,121.0
1,233.56
876.4
.9378
1,071.09
15,698.7
1,152.68
1.0007
1,153.48
2006
3.3
15,698.7
1,152.68
1,137.2
1,292.31
884.6
.9352
1,113.56
15,951.3
1,202.24
1.0007
1,203.07
2007
3.3
15,951.3
1,202.24
1,166.2
1,363.75
892.8
.9334
1,159.16
16,224.7
1,255.22
1.0007
1,256.09
2008
3.3
16,224.7
1,255.22
1,272.6
1,421.38
902.6
.9310
1,207.12
16,594.8
1,311.08
1.0007
1,311.99
2009
3.3
16,594.8
1,311.08
1,421.7
1,486.78
914.8
.9290
1,258.15
17,101.7
1,370.50
1.0007
1,371.45
2010
3.3
17,101.7
1,370.50
1,434.6
1,551.98
929.6
.9272
1,312.60
17,606.7
1,432.27
1.0007
1,433.27
Female
1975
8.0
7,262.1
166.90
603.4
173.12
315.7
.5347
96.37
7,549.7
183.19
.9924
181.80
1980
14.3
8,872.5
257.80
670.6
276.10
347.2
.5597
164.92
9,195.9
298.21
.9955
296.86
1985
3.1
10,438.8
397.58
699.8
331.84
415.0
.4825
197.79
10,723.5
413.02
.9977
412.09
1986
1.3
10,723.5
413.02
716.5
339.72
425.2
.5023
210.16
11,014.8
421.31
.9979
420.44
1987
4.2
11,014.8
421.31
694.5
358.15
433.2
.5296
232.48
11,276.3
441.96
.9982
441.16
1988
4.0
11,276.3
441.96
688.9
373.12
463.6
.5534
254.36
11,501.7
462.73
.9985
462.02
1989
4.7
11,501.7
462.73
685.5
396.53
454.8
.5000
242.22
11,732.6
488.73
.9984
487.93
1990
5.4
11,732.6
488.73
687.1
424.23
466.1
.5393
277.82
11,953.4
519.15
.9988
518.55
1991
3.7
11,953.4
519.15
688.4
441.25
476.4
.5629
303.02
12,165.3
542.08
.9992
541.63
1992
3.0
12,165.3
542.08
701.3
459.62
484.2
.5594
312.34
12,382.4
562.37
.9990
561.82
1993
2.6
12,382.4
562.37
687.8
479.04
514.5
.5926
341.90
12,555.8
581.26
.9991
580.72
1994
2.8
12,555.8
581.26
684.5
498.74
527.8
.6153
367.67
12,712.5
601.76
.9992
601.26
1995
2.6
12,712.5
601.76
684.2
518.80
536.0
.6281
387.79
12,860.9
621.73
.9992
621.22
1996
2.9
12,860.9
621.73
678.5
539.32
547.6
.6408
409.99
12,992.2
644.20
.9992
643.70
1997
2.1
12,992.2
644.20
822.1
592.00
560.6
.6615
435.07
13,253.6
663.07
.9992
662.53
1998
1.3
13,253.6
663.07
735.9
584.57
585.1
.6756
453.78
13,404.4
676.42
.9993
675.93
1999
1 2.5
13,404.4
676.42
748.8
613.82
605.2
.6864
475.47
13,548.8
698.00
.9993
697.50
2000
3.5
13,548.8
698.00
842.8
665.29
615.7
.6706
484.46
13,776.0
729.57
1.0004
729.89
2001
2.8
13,776.0
729.57
790.2
689.51
632.2
.7025
526.91
13,931.7
756.69
1.0004
757.02
2002
2.9
13,931.7
756.69
813.4
722.84
642.6
.7113
553.86
14,102.5
785.66
1.0004
786.00
2003
3.0
14,102.5
785.66
824.1
751.38
644.1
.7050
570.52
14,282.5
816.66
1.0004
817.01
2004
3.1
14,282.5
816.66
877.7
774.13
656.0
.7022
591.20
14,504.2
849.21
1.0004
849.58
2005
3.2
14,504.2
849.21
923.5
797.68
663.8
.6966
610.50
14,763.9
883.42
1.0004
883.80
2006
3.3
14,763.9
883.42
942.0
831.21
673.3
.6943
633.58
15,032.6
919.97
1.0004
920.37
2007
3.3
15,032.6
919.97
971.8
870.20
680.8
.6916
657.29
15,323.5
958.26
1.0004
958.68
2008
3.3
15,323.5
958.26
1,081.4
905.13
696.6
.6882
681.21
15,708.4
997.74
1.0004
998.18
2009
3.3
15,708.4
997.74
1,219.6
940.72
719.4
.6844
705.36
16,208.6
1,038.33
1.0004
1,038.79
2010
3.3
16,208.6
1,038.33
1,240.3
980.77
728.4
.6778
727.06
16,720.5
1,080.84
1.0004
1,081.31

1 Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent.

Sources:

· Number in force and number awarded shown earlier.

· Number terminated calculated as in force beginning of year plus awards during year minus in force end of year.

· Average benefit awarded, shown earlier.

· Historical ratio of average terminated benefit to average benefit in force computed by division of corresponding figures where the average benefit in force at the beginning of the year has been adjusted to the end-of-year rate; future ratios projected based on historical trend.

· Historical average terminated benefit computed by dividing (a) number in force at beginning of year times average benefit in force, plus number of awards times average benefit awarded at beginning-of-year rate, minus number in force at end of year times average benefit in force at beginning-of-year rates, by (b) number of terminations. Future average terminated benefit computed by applying applicable ratio to average benefit in force at beginning of year.

· Historical average benefit in force from 1-A Table In Force Supplement. Future average benefit in force at end of year computed by dividing (a) number in force at beginning of year times average benefit in force at end-of-year rate, plus number of awards times average benefit awarded at end-of-year rate, minus number of terminations times average terminated benefit at end of year rate, by (b) number in force at end of year.

· Historical ratio of average benefit in current-payment status to average benefit in force computed by division of corresponding figures; future ratios projected based on historical trend.

· Historical average benefit in current-payment status from 1-A Table Current-Payment Supplement; future average benefit computed by applying applicable ratio to average benefit in force.

Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.

Contents Glossary

List of Studies
December 26, 2001