Description of Proposed Provision:
B1.8: Progressive price indexing (50th percentile) of PIA factors for individuals newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2023 through 2062: Create a new bend point at the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 50th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 50th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.12 | 12.89 | -1.23 | 256 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.27 | 12.92 | -1.35 | 239 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.44 | 12.95 | -1.49 | 223 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.62 | 12.97 | -1.65 | 206 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2024 | 14.80 | 12.99 | -1.81 | 188 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2025 | 14.98 | 13.01 | -1.97 | 171 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2026 | 15.15 | 13.13 | -2.02 | 154 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2027 | 15.35 | 13.15 | -2.20 | 137 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2028 | 15.56 | 13.17 | -2.39 | 121 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2029 | 15.76 | 13.19 | -2.57 | 104 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2030 | 15.93 | 13.20 | -2.73 | 87 | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2031 | 16.09 | 13.21 | -2.88 | 70 | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.07 | ||
| 2032 | 16.22 | 13.22 | -3.00 | 53 | -0.10 | -0.01 | 0.09 | ||
| 2033 | 16.33 | 13.23 | -3.10 | 35 | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.12 | ||
| 2034 | 16.41 | 13.24 | -3.17 | 17 | -0.16 | -0.01 | 0.15 | ||
| 2035 | 16.46 | 13.24 | -3.21 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2036 | 16.49 | 13.25 | -3.24 | ---- | -0.23 | -0.01 | 0.22 | ||
| 2037 | 16.51 | 13.25 | -3.26 | ---- | -0.27 | -0.02 | 0.26 | ||
| 2038 | 16.50 | 13.25 | -3.25 | ---- | -0.32 | -0.02 | 0.30 | ||
| 2039 | 16.47 | 13.25 | -3.22 | ---- | -0.36 | -0.02 | 0.34 | ||
| 2040 | 16.42 | 13.25 | -3.17 | ---- | -0.41 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2041 | 16.36 | 13.25 | -3.11 | ---- | -0.45 | -0.03 | 0.43 | ||
| 2042 | 16.27 | 13.24 | -3.03 | ---- | -0.50 | -0.03 | 0.47 | ||
| 2043 | 16.18 | 13.24 | -2.94 | ---- | -0.55 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2044 | 16.09 | 13.23 | -2.86 | ---- | -0.60 | -0.04 | 0.57 | ||
| 2045 | 16.00 | 13.23 | -2.77 | ---- | -0.66 | -0.04 | 0.62 | ||
| 2046 | 15.92 | 13.23 | -2.69 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.04 | 0.67 | ||
| 2047 | 15.84 | 13.22 | -2.61 | ---- | -0.76 | -0.05 | 0.72 | ||
| 2048 | 15.76 | 13.22 | -2.54 | ---- | -0.82 | -0.05 | 0.77 | ||
| 2049 | 15.68 | 13.22 | -2.46 | ---- | -0.88 | -0.05 | 0.82 | ||
| 2050 | 15.61 | 13.21 | -2.40 | ---- | -0.93 | -0.06 | 0.88 | ||
| 2051 | 15.54 | 13.21 | -2.33 | ---- | -0.99 | -0.06 | 0.93 | ||
| 2052 | 15.48 | 13.21 | -2.28 | ---- | -1.05 | -0.06 | 0.99 | ||
| 2053 | 15.43 | 13.20 | -2.23 | ---- | -1.11 | -0.07 | 1.04 | ||
| 2054 | 15.39 | 13.20 | -2.19 | ---- | -1.17 | -0.07 | 1.10 | ||
| 2055 | 15.36 | 13.20 | -2.16 | ---- | -1.23 | -0.07 | 1.16 | ||
| 2056 | 15.33 | 13.20 | -2.13 | ---- | -1.29 | -0.08 | 1.21 | ||
| 2057 | 15.31 | 13.20 | -2.11 | ---- | -1.35 | -0.08 | 1.27 | ||
| 2058 | 15.30 | 13.20 | -2.10 | ---- | -1.42 | -0.09 | 1.33 | ||
| 2059 | 15.28 | 13.20 | -2.08 | ---- | -1.48 | -0.09 | 1.39 | ||
| 2060 | 15.27 | 13.20 | -2.07 | ---- | -1.54 | -0.09 | 1.44 | ||
| 2061 | 15.26 | 13.20 | -2.06 | ---- | -1.59 | -0.10 | 1.50 | ||
| 2062 | 15.26 | 13.20 | -2.05 | ---- | -1.65 | -0.10 | 1.55 | ||
| 2063 | 15.25 | 13.20 | -2.05 | ---- | -1.71 | -0.10 | 1.61 | ||
| 2064 | 15.25 | 13.20 | -2.04 | ---- | -1.77 | -0.11 | 1.66 | ||
| 2065 | 15.25 | 13.20 | -2.04 | ---- | -1.82 | -0.11 | 1.71 | ||
| 2066 | 15.25 | 13.20 | -2.04 | ---- | -1.88 | -0.11 | 1.77 | ||
| 2067 | 15.25 | 13.21 | -2.04 | ---- | -1.93 | -0.12 | 1.82 | ||
| 2068 | 15.26 | 13.21 | -2.05 | ---- | -1.99 | -0.12 | 1.87 | ||
| 2069 | 15.26 | 13.21 | -2.06 | ---- | -2.04 | -0.12 | 1.92 | ||
| 2070 | 15.28 | 13.21 | -2.07 | ---- | -2.09 | -0.13 | 1.96 | ||
| 2071 | 15.28 | 13.21 | -2.07 | ---- | -2.14 | -0.13 | 2.01 | ||
| 2072 | 15.29 | 13.21 | -2.08 | ---- | -2.18 | -0.13 | 2.05 | ||
| 2073 | 15.29 | 13.21 | -2.08 | ---- | -2.22 | -0.14 | 2.09 | ||
| 2074 | 15.29 | 13.21 | -2.08 | ---- | -2.26 | -0.14 | 2.12 | ||
| 2075 | 15.29 | 13.21 | -2.08 | ---- | -2.30 | -0.14 | 2.16 | ||
| 2076 | 15.28 | 13.21 | -2.07 | ---- | -2.33 | -0.14 | 2.19 | ||
| 2077 | 15.27 | 13.21 | -2.06 | ---- | -2.36 | -0.14 | 2.21 | ||
| 2078 | 15.25 | 13.21 | -2.03 | ---- | -2.38 | -0.15 | 2.24 | ||
| 2079 | 15.22 | 13.21 | -2.01 | ---- | -2.40 | -0.15 | 2.25 | ||
| 2080 | 15.19 | 13.21 | -1.98 | ---- | -2.42 | -0.15 | 2.27 | ||
| 2081 | 15.16 | 13.21 | -1.95 | ---- | -2.43 | -0.15 | 2.28 | ||
| 2082 | 15.13 | 13.20 | -1.92 | ---- | -2.45 | -0.15 | 2.30 | ||
| 2083 | 15.10 | 13.20 | -1.89 | ---- | -2.46 | -0.15 | 2.31 | ||
| 2084 | 15.07 | 13.20 | -1.87 | ---- | -2.47 | -0.15 | 2.32 | ||
| 2085 | 15.05 | 13.20 | -1.85 | ---- | -2.48 | -0.15 | 2.33 | ||
| 2086 | 15.04 | 13.20 | -1.84 | ---- | -2.49 | -0.15 | 2.33 | ||
| 2087 | 15.04 | 13.20 | -1.84 | ---- | -2.49 | -0.15 | 2.34 | ||
| 2088 | 15.04 | 13.20 | -1.84 | ---- | -2.50 | -0.15 | 2.35 | ||
| 2089 | 15.06 | 13.20 | -1.86 | ---- | -2.51 | -0.15 | 2.36 | ||
| 2090 | 15.08 | 13.20 | -1.88 | ---- | -2.52 | -0.15 | 2.37 | ||
| 2091 | 15.10 | 13.20 | -1.90 | ---- | -2.53 | -0.16 | 2.38 | ||
| 2092 | 15.14 | 13.20 | -1.93 | ---- | -2.54 | -0.16 | 2.39 | ||
| 2093 | 15.17 | 13.21 | -1.96 | ---- | -2.55 | -0.16 | 2.40 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 15.60% | 13.78% | -1.82% | 2034 | -1.08% | -0.06% | 1.02% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.