Description of Proposed Provision:
B1.6 (2027): Progressive price indexing (30th percentile) of PIA factors beginning with individuals newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2027: Create a new bend point at the 30th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 30th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 30th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.12 | 12.89 | -1.23 | 256 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.27 | 12.92 | -1.35 | 239 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.44 | 12.95 | -1.49 | 223 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.62 | 12.97 | -1.66 | 206 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2024 | 14.80 | 12.99 | -1.81 | 188 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2025 | 14.98 | 13.01 | -1.98 | 171 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2026 | 15.16 | 13.13 | -2.02 | 154 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2027 | 15.36 | 13.15 | -2.21 | 137 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2028 | 15.58 | 13.17 | -2.41 | 120 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2029 | 15.79 | 13.19 | -2.60 | 104 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2030 | 15.97 | 13.20 | -2.77 | 87 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2031 | 16.14 | 13.21 | -2.93 | 69 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2032 | 16.29 | 13.23 | -3.07 | 51 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2033 | 16.41 | 13.24 | -3.18 | 33 | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2034 | 16.51 | 13.24 | -3.26 | 15 | -0.06 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2035 | 16.57 | 13.25 | -3.32 | ---- | -0.08 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
| 2036 | 16.61 | 13.25 | -3.36 | ---- | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.10 | ||
| 2037 | 16.64 | 13.26 | -3.38 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2038 | 16.64 | 13.26 | -3.38 | ---- | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2039 | 16.61 | 13.26 | -3.35 | ---- | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2040 | 16.57 | 13.26 | -3.31 | ---- | -0.26 | -0.02 | 0.25 | ||
| 2041 | 16.50 | 13.26 | -3.25 | ---- | -0.31 | -0.02 | 0.29 | ||
| 2042 | 16.42 | 13.25 | -3.17 | ---- | -0.36 | -0.02 | 0.34 | ||
| 2043 | 16.32 | 13.25 | -3.08 | ---- | -0.41 | -0.02 | 0.39 | ||
| 2044 | 16.23 | 13.24 | -2.98 | ---- | -0.47 | -0.03 | 0.44 | ||
| 2045 | 16.13 | 13.24 | -2.89 | ---- | -0.53 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2046 | 16.04 | 13.23 | -2.80 | ---- | -0.59 | -0.04 | 0.56 | ||
| 2047 | 15.95 | 13.23 | -2.72 | ---- | -0.66 | -0.04 | 0.62 | ||
| 2048 | 15.85 | 13.22 | -2.63 | ---- | -0.72 | -0.04 | 0.68 | ||
| 2049 | 15.76 | 13.22 | -2.54 | ---- | -0.79 | -0.05 | 0.75 | ||
| 2050 | 15.68 | 13.22 | -2.46 | ---- | -0.87 | -0.05 | 0.81 | ||
| 2051 | 15.59 | 13.21 | -2.38 | ---- | -0.94 | -0.06 | 0.88 | ||
| 2052 | 15.52 | 13.21 | -2.31 | ---- | -1.02 | -0.06 | 0.95 | ||
| 2053 | 15.45 | 13.21 | -2.24 | ---- | -1.09 | -0.07 | 1.03 | ||
| 2054 | 15.39 | 13.20 | -2.19 | ---- | -1.17 | -0.07 | 1.10 | ||
| 2055 | 15.33 | 13.20 | -2.13 | ---- | -1.25 | -0.08 | 1.18 | ||
| 2056 | 15.29 | 13.20 | -2.09 | ---- | -1.34 | -0.08 | 1.26 | ||
| 2057 | 15.24 | 13.20 | -2.05 | ---- | -1.42 | -0.09 | 1.34 | ||
| 2058 | 15.21 | 13.20 | -2.01 | ---- | -1.51 | -0.09 | 1.42 | ||
| 2059 | 15.17 | 13.19 | -1.97 | ---- | -1.59 | -0.10 | 1.50 | ||
| 2060 | 15.13 | 13.19 | -1.94 | ---- | -1.68 | -0.10 | 1.58 | ||
| 2061 | 15.10 | 13.19 | -1.91 | ---- | -1.76 | -0.11 | 1.65 | ||
| 2062 | 15.07 | 13.19 | -1.88 | ---- | -1.84 | -0.11 | 1.73 | ||
| 2063 | 15.04 | 13.19 | -1.85 | ---- | -1.93 | -0.12 | 1.81 | ||
| 2064 | 15.01 | 13.19 | -1.82 | ---- | -2.01 | -0.12 | 1.89 | ||
| 2065 | 14.98 | 13.19 | -1.79 | ---- | -2.09 | -0.13 | 1.96 | ||
| 2066 | 14.96 | 13.19 | -1.77 | ---- | -2.17 | -0.13 | 2.04 | ||
| 2067 | 14.93 | 13.19 | -1.75 | ---- | -2.25 | -0.14 | 2.11 | ||
| 2068 | 14.91 | 13.19 | -1.73 | ---- | -2.33 | -0.14 | 2.19 | ||
| 2069 | 14.89 | 13.18 | -1.71 | ---- | -2.41 | -0.15 | 2.27 | ||
| 2070 | 14.87 | 13.18 | -1.69 | ---- | -2.49 | -0.15 | 2.34 | ||
| 2071 | 14.85 | 13.18 | -1.66 | ---- | -2.57 | -0.16 | 2.42 | ||
| 2072 | 14.82 | 13.18 | -1.64 | ---- | -2.65 | -0.16 | 2.49 | ||
| 2073 | 14.79 | 13.18 | -1.61 | ---- | -2.73 | -0.17 | 2.56 | ||
| 2074 | 14.75 | 13.18 | -1.57 | ---- | -2.80 | -0.17 | 2.63 | ||
| 2075 | 14.71 | 13.18 | -1.53 | ---- | -2.88 | -0.18 | 2.70 | ||
| 2076 | 14.66 | 13.17 | -1.49 | ---- | -2.95 | -0.18 | 2.77 | ||
| 2077 | 14.61 | 13.17 | -1.44 | ---- | -3.02 | -0.18 | 2.83 | ||
| 2078 | 14.55 | 13.17 | -1.38 | ---- | -3.08 | -0.19 | 2.89 | ||
| 2079 | 14.48 | 13.16 | -1.31 | ---- | -3.14 | -0.19 | 2.95 | ||
| 2080 | 14.41 | 13.16 | -1.25 | ---- | -3.20 | -0.20 | 3.00 | ||
| 2081 | 14.33 | 13.16 | -1.18 | ---- | -3.26 | -0.20 | 3.06 | ||
| 2082 | 14.26 | 13.15 | -1.11 | ---- | -3.31 | -0.20 | 3.11 | ||
| 2083 | 14.19 | 13.15 | -1.04 | ---- | -3.37 | -0.21 | 3.16 | ||
| 2084 | 14.12 | 13.14 | -0.98 | ---- | -3.42 | -0.21 | 3.21 | ||
| 2085 | 14.06 | 13.14 | -0.92 | ---- | -3.48 | -0.21 | 3.26 | ||
| 2086 | 14.00 | 13.13 | -0.86 | ---- | -3.53 | -0.22 | 3.31 | ||
| 2087 | 13.94 | 13.13 | -0.81 | ---- | -3.59 | -0.22 | 3.37 | ||
| 2088 | 13.90 | 13.13 | -0.77 | ---- | -3.65 | -0.22 | 3.42 | ||
| 2089 | 13.86 | 13.13 | -0.74 | ---- | -3.71 | -0.23 | 3.48 | ||
| 2090 | 13.83 | 13.12 | -0.70 | ---- | -3.77 | -0.23 | 3.54 | ||
| 2091 | 13.80 | 13.12 | -0.68 | ---- | -3.83 | -0.23 | 3.60 | ||
| 2092 | 13.78 | 13.12 | -0.66 | ---- | -3.90 | -0.24 | 3.66 | ||
| 2093 | 13.76 | 13.12 | -0.64 | ---- | -3.97 | -0.24 | 3.72 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 15.40% | 13.77% | -1.63% | 2034 | -1.29% | -0.08% | 1.21% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
|||||||||
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.