Description of Proposed Provision:
B1.6 (2022): Progressive price indexing (30th percentile) of PIA factors beginning with individuals newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2022: Create a new bend point at the 30th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 30th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 30th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status. Young survivors (children of deceased workers and surviving spouses with a child in care) are not affected.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.12 | 12.89 | -1.23 | 256 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.27 | 12.92 | -1.35 | 239 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.44 | 12.95 | -1.49 | 223 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.62 | 12.97 | -1.65 | 206 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2024 | 14.80 | 12.99 | -1.80 | 188 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2025 | 14.97 | 13.01 | -1.96 | 171 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2026 | 15.14 | 13.13 | -2.01 | 154 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2027 | 15.33 | 13.15 | -2.18 | 138 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2028 | 15.53 | 13.17 | -2.36 | 121 | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2029 | 15.72 | 13.18 | -2.53 | 105 | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.07 | ||
| 2030 | 15.88 | 13.20 | -2.68 | 88 | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.10 | ||
| 2031 | 16.02 | 13.21 | -2.81 | 71 | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2032 | 16.13 | 13.22 | -2.92 | 54 | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2033 | 16.22 | 13.22 | -3.00 | 37 | -0.23 | -0.01 | 0.22 | ||
| 2034 | 16.28 | 13.23 | -3.05 | 19 | -0.28 | -0.02 | 0.27 | ||
| 2035 | 16.32 | 13.23 | -3.08 | 1 | -0.33 | -0.02 | 0.32 | ||
| 2036 | 16.33 | 13.24 | -3.09 | ---- | -0.39 | -0.02 | 0.37 | ||
| 2037 | 16.33 | 13.24 | -3.09 | ---- | -0.45 | -0.03 | 0.43 | ||
| 2038 | 16.31 | 13.24 | -3.07 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2039 | 16.25 | 13.24 | -3.01 | ---- | -0.58 | -0.03 | 0.55 | ||
| 2040 | 16.18 | 13.24 | -2.95 | ---- | -0.65 | -0.04 | 0.61 | ||
| 2041 | 16.10 | 13.23 | -2.87 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.04 | 0.67 | ||
| 2042 | 15.99 | 13.23 | -2.77 | ---- | -0.78 | -0.05 | 0.73 | ||
| 2043 | 15.88 | 13.22 | -2.66 | ---- | -0.85 | -0.05 | 0.80 | ||
| 2044 | 15.77 | 13.22 | -2.56 | ---- | -0.92 | -0.05 | 0.87 | ||
| 2045 | 15.67 | 13.21 | -2.46 | ---- | -0.99 | -0.06 | 0.94 | ||
| 2046 | 15.56 | 13.20 | -2.35 | ---- | -1.07 | -0.06 | 1.01 | ||
| 2047 | 15.46 | 13.20 | -2.26 | ---- | -1.15 | -0.07 | 1.08 | ||
| 2048 | 15.35 | 13.19 | -2.16 | ---- | -1.22 | -0.07 | 1.15 | ||
| 2049 | 15.25 | 13.19 | -2.06 | ---- | -1.30 | -0.08 | 1.22 | ||
| 2050 | 15.16 | 13.19 | -1.98 | ---- | -1.38 | -0.08 | 1.30 | ||
| 2051 | 15.07 | 13.18 | -1.89 | ---- | -1.46 | -0.09 | 1.37 | ||
| 2052 | 14.99 | 13.18 | -1.81 | ---- | -1.54 | -0.09 | 1.45 | ||
| 2053 | 14.92 | 13.17 | -1.75 | ---- | -1.62 | -0.10 | 1.53 | ||
| 2054 | 14.86 | 13.17 | -1.68 | ---- | -1.71 | -0.10 | 1.60 | ||
| 2055 | 14.80 | 13.17 | -1.63 | ---- | -1.79 | -0.11 | 1.68 | ||
| 2056 | 14.75 | 13.17 | -1.59 | ---- | -1.87 | -0.11 | 1.76 | ||
| 2057 | 14.71 | 13.17 | -1.54 | ---- | -1.96 | -0.12 | 1.84 | ||
| 2058 | 14.67 | 13.16 | -1.51 | ---- | -2.04 | -0.12 | 1.92 | ||
| 2059 | 14.64 | 13.16 | -1.48 | ---- | -2.12 | -0.13 | 1.99 | ||
| 2060 | 14.61 | 13.16 | -1.44 | ---- | -2.20 | -0.13 | 2.07 | ||
| 2061 | 14.58 | 13.16 | -1.41 | ---- | -2.28 | -0.14 | 2.15 | ||
| 2062 | 14.55 | 13.16 | -1.39 | ---- | -2.36 | -0.14 | 2.22 | ||
| 2063 | 14.52 | 13.16 | -1.36 | ---- | -2.44 | -0.15 | 2.29 | ||
| 2064 | 14.50 | 13.16 | -1.34 | ---- | -2.52 | -0.15 | 2.36 | ||
| 2065 | 14.48 | 13.16 | -1.32 | ---- | -2.59 | -0.16 | 2.44 | ||
| 2066 | 14.45 | 13.16 | -1.30 | ---- | -2.67 | -0.16 | 2.51 | ||
| 2067 | 14.44 | 13.16 | -1.28 | ---- | -2.75 | -0.17 | 2.58 | ||
| 2068 | 14.42 | 13.16 | -1.26 | ---- | -2.82 | -0.17 | 2.65 | ||
| 2069 | 14.40 | 13.16 | -1.25 | ---- | -2.90 | -0.18 | 2.72 | ||
| 2070 | 14.39 | 13.15 | -1.23 | ---- | -2.98 | -0.18 | 2.79 | ||
| 2071 | 14.37 | 13.15 | -1.22 | ---- | -3.05 | -0.19 | 2.86 | ||
| 2072 | 14.35 | 13.15 | -1.19 | ---- | -3.12 | -0.19 | 2.93 | ||
| 2073 | 14.32 | 13.15 | -1.17 | ---- | -3.20 | -0.19 | 3.00 | ||
| 2074 | 14.29 | 13.15 | -1.14 | ---- | -3.27 | -0.20 | 3.07 | ||
| 2075 | 14.25 | 13.15 | -1.10 | ---- | -3.34 | -0.20 | 3.13 | ||
| 2076 | 14.21 | 13.15 | -1.06 | ---- | -3.40 | -0.21 | 3.19 | ||
| 2077 | 14.16 | 13.14 | -1.02 | ---- | -3.46 | -0.21 | 3.25 | ||
| 2078 | 14.10 | 13.14 | -0.96 | ---- | -3.52 | -0.21 | 3.31 | ||
| 2079 | 14.04 | 13.14 | -0.90 | ---- | -3.58 | -0.22 | 3.36 | ||
| 2080 | 13.98 | 13.13 | -0.84 | ---- | -3.63 | -0.22 | 3.41 | ||
| 2081 | 13.91 | 13.13 | -0.78 | ---- | -3.68 | -0.22 | 3.45 | ||
| 2082 | 13.84 | 13.13 | -0.72 | ---- | -3.73 | -0.23 | 3.50 | ||
| 2083 | 13.78 | 13.12 | -0.66 | ---- | -3.78 | -0.23 | 3.55 | ||
| 2084 | 13.71 | 13.12 | -0.60 | ---- | -3.83 | -0.23 | 3.59 | ||
| 2085 | 13.66 | 13.11 | -0.54 | ---- | -3.87 | -0.24 | 3.64 | ||
| 2086 | 13.60 | 13.11 | -0.49 | ---- | -3.92 | -0.24 | 3.68 | ||
| 2087 | 13.56 | 13.11 | -0.45 | ---- | -3.98 | -0.24 | 3.73 | ||
| 2088 | 13.52 | 13.11 | -0.41 | ---- | -4.03 | -0.25 | 3.78 | ||
| 2089 | 13.48 | 13.10 | -0.38 | ---- | -4.08 | -0.25 | 3.83 | ||
| 2090 | 13.46 | 13.10 | -0.35 | ---- | -4.14 | -0.25 | 3.89 | ||
| 2091 | 13.43 | 13.10 | -0.33 | ---- | -4.20 | -0.26 | 3.95 | ||
| 2092 | 13.41 | 13.10 | -0.32 | ---- | -4.26 | -0.26 | 4.00 | ||
| 2093 | 13.40 | 13.10 | -0.30 | ---- | -4.33 | -0.27 | 4.06 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 15.05% | 13.75% | -1.31% | 2035 | -1.63% | -0.10% | 1.53% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
|||||||||
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.