Description of Proposed Provision:
B3.13: For retired worker beneficiaries newly eligible in 2025 (excluding disabled workers), add a new bend point at the wage-indexed equivalent of the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution minus $100 (for 2015 eligibility) and change the PIA factors to 95/32/15/5. Also move the current-law first bend point from the wage-indexed equivalent of $895 in 2018 to $1,138 in 2018. Phase this provision in over 10 years (2025-2034). The phase-in would work on a weighted-average basis: 90% of CL formula + 10% of proposal formula for 2025, 80% of CL formula + 20% of proposal formula for 2026, and so on.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.12 | 12.89 | -1.23 | 256 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.27 | 12.92 | -1.35 | 239 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.44 | 12.95 | -1.49 | 223 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.62 | 12.97 | -1.66 | 206 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2024 | 14.80 | 12.99 | -1.81 | 188 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2025 | 14.98 | 13.01 | -1.98 | 171 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | ||
| 2026 | 15.16 | 13.13 | -2.03 | 154 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | ||
| 2027 | 15.37 | 13.15 | -2.21 | 137 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | ||
| 2028 | 15.59 | 13.17 | -2.42 | 120 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | ||
| 2029 | 15.80 | 13.19 | -2.61 | 103 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2030 | 15.99 | 13.20 | -2.79 | 86 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2031 | 16.17 | 13.22 | -2.96 | 69 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2032 | 16.33 | 13.23 | -3.10 | 51 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2033 | 16.47 | 13.24 | -3.23 | 33 | 0.02 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2034 | 16.58 | 13.25 | -3.33 | 14 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2035 | 16.66 | 13.25 | -3.41 | ---- | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2036 | 16.73 | 13.26 | -3.47 | ---- | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2037 | 16.79 | 13.27 | -3.52 | ---- | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | ||
| 2038 | 16.82 | 13.27 | -3.55 | ---- | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2039 | 16.82 | 13.27 | -3.55 | ---- | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2040 | 16.80 | 13.27 | -3.53 | ---- | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2041 | 16.77 | 13.27 | -3.50 | ---- | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2042 | 16.73 | 13.27 | -3.46 | ---- | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2043 | 16.68 | 13.27 | -3.41 | ---- | -0.06 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2044 | 16.63 | 13.27 | -3.36 | ---- | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2045 | 16.58 | 13.26 | -3.32 | ---- | -0.08 | -0.00 | 0.07 | ||
| 2046 | 16.54 | 13.26 | -3.28 | ---- | -0.09 | -0.01 | 0.08 | ||
| 2047 | 16.51 | 13.26 | -3.25 | ---- | -0.09 | -0.01 | 0.09 | ||
| 2048 | 16.48 | 13.26 | -3.21 | ---- | -0.10 | -0.01 | 0.09 | ||
| 2049 | 16.45 | 13.26 | -3.19 | ---- | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.10 | ||
| 2050 | 16.43 | 13.26 | -3.17 | ---- | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.11 | ||
| 2051 | 16.41 | 13.26 | -3.15 | ---- | -0.12 | -0.01 | 0.11 | ||
| 2052 | 16.41 | 13.26 | -3.15 | ---- | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.12 | ||
| 2053 | 16.41 | 13.26 | -3.15 | ---- | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.12 | ||
| 2054 | 16.43 | 13.26 | -3.16 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2055 | 16.45 | 13.27 | -3.18 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2056 | 16.48 | 13.27 | -3.21 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2057 | 16.52 | 13.27 | -3.24 | ---- | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2058 | 16.56 | 13.28 | -3.28 | ---- | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2059 | 16.60 | 13.28 | -3.32 | ---- | -0.16 | -0.01 | 0.15 | ||
| 2060 | 16.65 | 13.29 | -3.36 | ---- | -0.16 | -0.01 | 0.15 | ||
| 2061 | 16.70 | 13.29 | -3.41 | ---- | -0.16 | -0.01 | 0.15 | ||
| 2062 | 16.75 | 13.29 | -3.45 | ---- | -0.16 | -0.01 | 0.15 | ||
| 2063 | 16.80 | 13.30 | -3.50 | ---- | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2064 | 16.85 | 13.30 | -3.55 | ---- | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2065 | 16.90 | 13.30 | -3.60 | ---- | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2066 | 16.95 | 13.31 | -3.65 | ---- | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2067 | 17.01 | 13.31 | -3.70 | ---- | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2068 | 17.07 | 13.32 | -3.75 | ---- | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2069 | 17.13 | 13.32 | -3.81 | ---- | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2070 | 17.19 | 13.32 | -3.86 | ---- | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2071 | 17.24 | 13.33 | -3.91 | ---- | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2072 | 17.29 | 13.33 | -3.96 | ---- | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2073 | 17.33 | 13.34 | -4.00 | ---- | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2074 | 17.37 | 13.34 | -4.03 | ---- | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2075 | 17.40 | 13.34 | -4.06 | ---- | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2076 | 17.43 | 13.34 | -4.08 | ---- | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2077 | 17.44 | 13.34 | -4.10 | ---- | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2078 | 17.44 | 13.34 | -4.10 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2079 | 17.43 | 13.34 | -4.09 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2080 | 17.42 | 13.34 | -4.07 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2081 | 17.40 | 13.34 | -4.06 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2082 | 17.38 | 13.34 | -4.04 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2083 | 17.37 | 13.34 | -4.02 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2084 | 17.35 | 13.34 | -4.01 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2085 | 17.34 | 13.34 | -4.00 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2086 | 17.34 | 13.34 | -4.00 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2087 | 17.34 | 13.34 | -4.00 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2088 | 17.35 | 13.34 | -4.01 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2089 | 17.38 | 13.34 | -4.03 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2090 | 17.41 | 13.34 | -4.06 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2091 | 17.44 | 13.35 | -4.10 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2092 | 17.48 | 13.35 | -4.14 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2093 | 17.53 | 13.35 | -4.18 | ---- | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 16.59% | 13.84% | -2.76% | 2034 | -0.09% | -0.01% | 0.09% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.