Description of Proposed Provision:
B1.4: Progressive price indexing (50th percentile) of PIA factors beginning with individuals newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2025: Create a new bend point at the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 50th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 50th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.12 | 12.89 | -1.23 | 256 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.27 | 12.92 | -1.35 | 239 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.44 | 12.95 | -1.49 | 223 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.62 | 12.97 | -1.66 | 206 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2024 | 14.80 | 12.99 | -1.81 | 188 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2025 | 14.98 | 13.01 | -1.97 | 171 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2026 | 15.16 | 13.13 | -2.02 | 154 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2027 | 15.36 | 13.15 | -2.21 | 137 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2028 | 15.57 | 13.17 | -2.40 | 121 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2029 | 15.77 | 13.19 | -2.59 | 104 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2030 | 15.96 | 13.20 | -2.75 | 87 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2031 | 16.12 | 13.21 | -2.90 | 70 | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2032 | 16.26 | 13.22 | -3.03 | 52 | -0.06 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2033 | 16.37 | 13.23 | -3.14 | 34 | -0.08 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
| 2034 | 16.46 | 13.24 | -3.21 | 16 | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.10 | ||
| 2035 | 16.51 | 13.25 | -3.26 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2036 | 16.55 | 13.25 | -3.30 | ---- | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2037 | 16.57 | 13.25 | -3.32 | ---- | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.20 | ||
| 2038 | 16.57 | 13.26 | -3.31 | ---- | -0.25 | -0.01 | 0.24 | ||
| 2039 | 16.54 | 13.26 | -3.28 | ---- | -0.29 | -0.02 | 0.28 | ||
| 2040 | 16.49 | 13.26 | -3.24 | ---- | -0.34 | -0.02 | 0.32 | ||
| 2041 | 16.43 | 13.25 | -3.18 | ---- | -0.38 | -0.02 | 0.36 | ||
| 2042 | 16.35 | 13.25 | -3.10 | ---- | -0.43 | -0.02 | 0.41 | ||
| 2043 | 16.26 | 13.24 | -3.01 | ---- | -0.48 | -0.03 | 0.45 | ||
| 2044 | 16.16 | 13.24 | -2.92 | ---- | -0.53 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2045 | 16.08 | 13.24 | -2.84 | ---- | -0.58 | -0.03 | 0.55 | ||
| 2046 | 15.99 | 13.23 | -2.76 | ---- | -0.64 | -0.04 | 0.60 | ||
| 2047 | 15.91 | 13.23 | -2.68 | ---- | -0.70 | -0.04 | 0.66 | ||
| 2048 | 15.82 | 13.23 | -2.60 | ---- | -0.75 | -0.04 | 0.71 | ||
| 2049 | 15.74 | 13.22 | -2.52 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.05 | 0.77 | ||
| 2050 | 15.67 | 13.22 | -2.45 | ---- | -0.87 | -0.05 | 0.82 | ||
| 2051 | 15.60 | 13.22 | -2.38 | ---- | -0.94 | -0.05 | 0.88 | ||
| 2052 | 15.54 | 13.21 | -2.32 | ---- | -1.00 | -0.06 | 0.94 | ||
| 2053 | 15.48 | 13.21 | -2.27 | ---- | -1.06 | -0.06 | 1.00 | ||
| 2054 | 15.43 | 13.21 | -2.23 | ---- | -1.13 | -0.06 | 1.06 | ||
| 2055 | 15.40 | 13.21 | -2.19 | ---- | -1.19 | -0.07 | 1.12 | ||
| 2056 | 15.37 | 13.21 | -2.16 | ---- | -1.26 | -0.07 | 1.19 | ||
| 2057 | 15.34 | 13.21 | -2.13 | ---- | -1.32 | -0.08 | 1.25 | ||
| 2058 | 15.32 | 13.21 | -2.11 | ---- | -1.39 | -0.08 | 1.31 | ||
| 2059 | 15.30 | 13.21 | -2.10 | ---- | -1.46 | -0.08 | 1.37 | ||
| 2060 | 15.29 | 13.21 | -2.08 | ---- | -1.52 | -0.09 | 1.43 | ||
| 2061 | 15.27 | 13.21 | -2.06 | ---- | -1.59 | -0.09 | 1.50 | ||
| 2062 | 15.26 | 13.21 | -2.05 | ---- | -1.65 | -0.10 | 1.56 | ||
| 2063 | 15.25 | 13.21 | -2.04 | ---- | -1.71 | -0.10 | 1.62 | ||
| 2064 | 15.24 | 13.21 | -2.03 | ---- | -1.78 | -0.10 | 1.67 | ||
| 2065 | 15.23 | 13.21 | -2.02 | ---- | -1.84 | -0.11 | 1.73 | ||
| 2066 | 15.22 | 13.21 | -2.01 | ---- | -1.90 | -0.11 | 1.79 | ||
| 2067 | 15.22 | 13.21 | -2.01 | ---- | -1.96 | -0.11 | 1.85 | ||
| 2068 | 15.22 | 13.21 | -2.01 | ---- | -2.03 | -0.12 | 1.91 | ||
| 2069 | 15.21 | 13.21 | -2.01 | ---- | -2.09 | -0.12 | 1.97 | ||
| 2070 | 15.21 | 13.21 | -2.00 | ---- | -2.15 | -0.13 | 2.03 | ||
| 2071 | 15.21 | 13.21 | -2.00 | ---- | -2.21 | -0.13 | 2.08 | ||
| 2072 | 15.20 | 13.21 | -1.99 | ---- | -2.27 | -0.13 | 2.14 | ||
| 2073 | 15.19 | 13.21 | -1.98 | ---- | -2.33 | -0.14 | 2.19 | ||
| 2074 | 15.17 | 13.21 | -1.96 | ---- | -2.38 | -0.14 | 2.24 | ||
| 2075 | 15.15 | 13.21 | -1.94 | ---- | -2.44 | -0.14 | 2.29 | ||
| 2076 | 15.12 | 13.21 | -1.91 | ---- | -2.49 | -0.15 | 2.34 | ||
| 2077 | 15.09 | 13.21 | -1.88 | ---- | -2.53 | -0.15 | 2.39 | ||
| 2078 | 15.05 | 13.20 | -1.84 | ---- | -2.58 | -0.15 | 2.43 | ||
| 2079 | 15.00 | 13.20 | -1.80 | ---- | -2.61 | -0.15 | 2.46 | ||
| 2080 | 14.96 | 13.20 | -1.76 | ---- | -2.65 | -0.16 | 2.49 | ||
| 2081 | 14.91 | 13.20 | -1.71 | ---- | -2.68 | -0.16 | 2.52 | ||
| 2082 | 14.86 | 13.19 | -1.67 | ---- | -2.71 | -0.16 | 2.55 | ||
| 2083 | 14.81 | 13.19 | -1.62 | ---- | -2.74 | -0.16 | 2.58 | ||
| 2084 | 14.77 | 13.19 | -1.59 | ---- | -2.77 | -0.16 | 2.60 | ||
| 2085 | 14.74 | 13.19 | -1.55 | ---- | -2.79 | -0.16 | 2.63 | ||
| 2086 | 14.71 | 13.18 | -1.53 | ---- | -2.81 | -0.17 | 2.65 | ||
| 2087 | 14.70 | 13.18 | -1.51 | ---- | -2.84 | -0.17 | 2.67 | ||
| 2088 | 14.69 | 13.18 | -1.50 | ---- | -2.86 | -0.17 | 2.69 | ||
| 2089 | 14.69 | 13.18 | -1.50 | ---- | -2.88 | -0.17 | 2.71 | ||
| 2090 | 14.69 | 13.18 | -1.51 | ---- | -2.90 | -0.17 | 2.73 | ||
| 2091 | 14.71 | 13.18 | -1.52 | ---- | -2.93 | -0.17 | 2.75 | ||
| 2092 | 14.73 | 13.19 | -1.54 | ---- | -2.95 | -0.17 | 2.77 | ||
| 2093 | 14.76 | 13.19 | -1.57 | ---- | -2.97 | -0.18 | 2.79 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 15.57% | 13.78% | -1.79% | 2034 | -1.12% | -0.06% | 1.06% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.