Description of Proposed Provision:
B1.2: Progressive price indexing (30th percentile) of PIA factors beginning with individuals newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2025: Create a new bend point at the 30th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 30th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 30th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.12 | 12.89 | -1.23 | 256 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.27 | 12.92 | -1.35 | 239 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.44 | 12.95 | -1.49 | 223 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.62 | 12.97 | -1.66 | 206 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2024 | 14.80 | 12.99 | -1.81 | 188 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2025 | 14.98 | 13.01 | -1.97 | 171 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2026 | 15.15 | 13.13 | -2.02 | 154 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2027 | 15.35 | 13.15 | -2.20 | 137 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2028 | 15.57 | 13.17 | -2.39 | 121 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2029 | 15.76 | 13.19 | -2.58 | 104 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2030 | 15.94 | 13.20 | -2.74 | 87 | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2031 | 16.09 | 13.21 | -2.88 | 70 | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2032 | 16.22 | 13.22 | -3.00 | 53 | -0.09 | -0.00 | 0.09 | ||
| 2033 | 16.32 | 13.23 | -3.09 | 35 | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.12 | ||
| 2034 | 16.40 | 13.24 | -3.16 | 17 | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2035 | 16.44 | 13.24 | -3.20 | ---- | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.20 | ||
| 2036 | 16.46 | 13.25 | -3.22 | ---- | -0.26 | -0.01 | 0.25 | ||
| 2037 | 16.47 | 13.25 | -3.22 | ---- | -0.31 | -0.02 | 0.30 | ||
| 2038 | 16.45 | 13.25 | -3.20 | ---- | -0.37 | -0.02 | 0.35 | ||
| 2039 | 16.41 | 13.25 | -3.16 | ---- | -0.43 | -0.02 | 0.40 | ||
| 2040 | 16.34 | 13.25 | -3.09 | ---- | -0.49 | -0.03 | 0.46 | ||
| 2041 | 16.26 | 13.24 | -3.01 | ---- | -0.55 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2042 | 16.15 | 13.24 | -2.92 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.03 | 0.59 | ||
| 2043 | 16.04 | 13.23 | -2.81 | ---- | -0.69 | -0.04 | 0.65 | ||
| 2044 | 15.93 | 13.23 | -2.70 | ---- | -0.76 | -0.04 | 0.72 | ||
| 2045 | 15.82 | 13.22 | -2.60 | ---- | -0.84 | -0.05 | 0.79 | ||
| 2046 | 15.71 | 13.22 | -2.49 | ---- | -0.92 | -0.05 | 0.87 | ||
| 2047 | 15.60 | 13.21 | -2.39 | ---- | -1.00 | -0.05 | 0.94 | ||
| 2048 | 15.50 | 13.21 | -2.29 | ---- | -1.08 | -0.06 | 1.02 | ||
| 2049 | 15.39 | 13.20 | -2.19 | ---- | -1.16 | -0.06 | 1.10 | ||
| 2050 | 15.29 | 13.20 | -2.09 | ---- | -1.25 | -0.07 | 1.18 | ||
| 2051 | 15.20 | 13.19 | -2.00 | ---- | -1.34 | -0.07 | 1.26 | ||
| 2052 | 15.11 | 13.19 | -1.92 | ---- | -1.43 | -0.08 | 1.35 | ||
| 2053 | 15.03 | 13.19 | -1.84 | ---- | -1.52 | -0.08 | 1.43 | ||
| 2054 | 14.95 | 13.18 | -1.77 | ---- | -1.61 | -0.09 | 1.52 | ||
| 2055 | 14.89 | 13.18 | -1.71 | ---- | -1.70 | -0.09 | 1.61 | ||
| 2056 | 14.83 | 13.18 | -1.65 | ---- | -1.79 | -0.10 | 1.69 | ||
| 2057 | 14.78 | 13.18 | -1.60 | ---- | -1.89 | -0.11 | 1.78 | ||
| 2058 | 14.73 | 13.18 | -1.55 | ---- | -1.98 | -0.11 | 1.87 | ||
| 2059 | 14.68 | 13.17 | -1.51 | ---- | -2.08 | -0.12 | 1.96 | ||
| 2060 | 14.64 | 13.17 | -1.47 | ---- | -2.17 | -0.12 | 2.05 | ||
| 2061 | 14.60 | 13.17 | -1.43 | ---- | -2.26 | -0.13 | 2.13 | ||
| 2062 | 14.56 | 13.17 | -1.39 | ---- | -2.35 | -0.13 | 2.22 | ||
| 2063 | 14.52 | 13.17 | -1.35 | ---- | -2.44 | -0.14 | 2.30 | ||
| 2064 | 14.49 | 13.17 | -1.32 | ---- | -2.53 | -0.14 | 2.38 | ||
| 2065 | 14.45 | 13.17 | -1.29 | ---- | -2.62 | -0.15 | 2.47 | ||
| 2066 | 14.42 | 13.16 | -1.26 | ---- | -2.70 | -0.15 | 2.55 | ||
| 2067 | 14.39 | 13.16 | -1.23 | ---- | -2.79 | -0.16 | 2.63 | ||
| 2068 | 14.36 | 13.16 | -1.20 | ---- | -2.88 | -0.16 | 2.72 | ||
| 2069 | 14.34 | 13.16 | -1.18 | ---- | -2.97 | -0.17 | 2.80 | ||
| 2070 | 14.31 | 13.16 | -1.15 | ---- | -3.05 | -0.18 | 2.88 | ||
| 2071 | 14.28 | 13.16 | -1.12 | ---- | -3.14 | -0.18 | 2.96 | ||
| 2072 | 14.25 | 13.16 | -1.09 | ---- | -3.22 | -0.19 | 3.04 | ||
| 2073 | 14.21 | 13.16 | -1.05 | ---- | -3.31 | -0.19 | 3.12 | ||
| 2074 | 14.17 | 13.15 | -1.01 | ---- | -3.39 | -0.20 | 3.19 | ||
| 2075 | 14.12 | 13.15 | -0.97 | ---- | -3.46 | -0.20 | 3.26 | ||
| 2076 | 14.07 | 13.15 | -0.92 | ---- | -3.54 | -0.20 | 3.34 | ||
| 2077 | 14.01 | 13.15 | -0.86 | ---- | -3.61 | -0.21 | 3.40 | ||
| 2078 | 13.95 | 13.14 | -0.80 | ---- | -3.68 | -0.21 | 3.47 | ||
| 2079 | 13.87 | 13.14 | -0.73 | ---- | -3.75 | -0.22 | 3.53 | ||
| 2080 | 13.80 | 13.13 | -0.66 | ---- | -3.81 | -0.22 | 3.59 | ||
| 2081 | 13.72 | 13.13 | -0.59 | ---- | -3.87 | -0.22 | 3.65 | ||
| 2082 | 13.64 | 13.13 | -0.51 | ---- | -3.93 | -0.23 | 3.70 | ||
| 2083 | 13.56 | 13.12 | -0.44 | ---- | -3.99 | -0.23 | 3.76 | ||
| 2084 | 13.49 | 13.12 | -0.37 | ---- | -4.05 | -0.23 | 3.82 | ||
| 2085 | 13.42 | 13.11 | -0.31 | ---- | -4.11 | -0.24 | 3.87 | ||
| 2086 | 13.36 | 13.11 | -0.25 | ---- | -4.17 | -0.24 | 3.93 | ||
| 2087 | 13.30 | 13.11 | -0.19 | ---- | -4.23 | -0.25 | 3.99 | ||
| 2088 | 13.25 | 13.10 | -0.14 | ---- | -4.30 | -0.25 | 4.05 | ||
| 2089 | 13.20 | 13.10 | -0.10 | ---- | -4.37 | -0.25 | 4.11 | ||
| 2090 | 13.17 | 13.10 | -0.07 | ---- | -4.43 | -0.26 | 4.18 | ||
| 2091 | 13.13 | 13.10 | -0.04 | ---- | -4.50 | -0.26 | 4.24 | ||
| 2092 | 13.11 | 13.10 | -0.01 | ---- | -4.57 | -0.27 | 4.31 | ||
| 2093 | 13.08 | 13.09 | 0.01 | ---- | -4.64 | -0.27 | 4.37 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 15.06% | 13.75% | -1.31% | 2034 | -1.62% | -0.09% | 1.53% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
|||||||||
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.