Description of Proposed Provision:
C2.5: Increase the normal retirement age (NRA) 3 months per year starting for those age 62 in 2019 until the NRA reaches 70 in 2033. Thereafter, index the NRA to maintain a constant ratio of expected retirement years (life expectancy at NRA) to potential work years (NRA minus 20). We assume the NRA will increase 1 month every 2 years. Also, increase the earliest eligibility age (EEA) from 62 to 64 at the same time the NRA increases from 67 to 69; that is, for those attaining age 62 in 2021 through 2028. Keep EEA at 64 thereafter.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.12 | 12.90 | -1.22 | 256 | -0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | ||
| 2021 | 14.27 | 12.93 | -1.34 | 240 | -0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | ||
| 2022 | 14.43 | 12.96 | -1.47 | 223 | -0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | ||
| 2023 | 14.61 | 12.98 | -1.63 | 206 | -0.01 | 0.02 | 0.03 | ||
| 2024 | 14.75 | 13.01 | -1.74 | 189 | -0.05 | 0.02 | 0.07 | ||
| 2025 | 14.87 | 13.03 | -1.85 | 173 | -0.11 | 0.02 | 0.13 | ||
| 2026 | 14.95 | 13.15 | -1.80 | 158 | -0.21 | 0.02 | 0.23 | ||
| 2027 | 15.06 | 13.17 | -1.90 | 143 | -0.30 | 0.01 | 0.32 | ||
| 2028 | 15.21 | 13.19 | -2.02 | 129 | -0.38 | 0.01 | 0.39 | ||
| 2029 | 15.35 | 13.20 | -2.15 | 114 | -0.44 | 0.01 | 0.45 | ||
| 2030 | 15.49 | 13.21 | -2.28 | 100 | -0.49 | 0.01 | 0.51 | ||
| 2031 | 15.64 | 13.22 | -2.42 | 85 | -0.52 | 0.01 | 0.52 | ||
| 2032 | 15.77 | 13.23 | -2.54 | 70 | -0.55 | -0.00 | 0.55 | ||
| 2033 | 15.86 | 13.23 | -2.62 | 54 | -0.60 | -0.00 | 0.59 | ||
| 2034 | 15.92 | 13.24 | -2.68 | 39 | -0.65 | -0.01 | 0.64 | ||
| 2035 | 15.94 | 13.24 | -2.70 | 23 | -0.71 | -0.01 | 0.70 | ||
| 2036 | 15.94 | 13.25 | -2.69 | 6 | -0.79 | -0.01 | 0.78 | ||
| 2037 | 15.92 | 13.26 | -2.67 | ---- | -0.86 | -0.01 | 0.85 | ||
| 2038 | 15.90 | 13.26 | -2.64 | ---- | -0.92 | -0.01 | 0.91 | ||
| 2039 | 15.84 | 13.26 | -2.58 | ---- | -0.99 | -0.01 | 0.98 | ||
| 2040 | 15.80 | 13.26 | -2.54 | ---- | -1.03 | -0.01 | 1.02 | ||
| 2041 | 15.74 | 13.26 | -2.48 | ---- | -1.07 | -0.02 | 1.06 | ||
| 2042 | 15.66 | 13.25 | -2.41 | ---- | -1.11 | -0.02 | 1.10 | ||
| 2043 | 15.58 | 13.25 | -2.33 | ---- | -1.16 | -0.02 | 1.14 | ||
| 2044 | 15.50 | 13.25 | -2.25 | ---- | -1.20 | -0.02 | 1.18 | ||
| 2045 | 15.42 | 13.24 | -2.17 | ---- | -1.24 | -0.02 | 1.22 | ||
| 2046 | 15.35 | 13.24 | -2.11 | ---- | -1.28 | -0.03 | 1.25 | ||
| 2047 | 15.28 | 13.24 | -2.04 | ---- | -1.32 | -0.03 | 1.29 | ||
| 2048 | 15.21 | 13.24 | -1.98 | ---- | -1.36 | -0.03 | 1.33 | ||
| 2049 | 15.14 | 13.23 | -1.91 | ---- | -1.41 | -0.03 | 1.38 | ||
| 2050 | 15.08 | 13.23 | -1.85 | ---- | -1.46 | -0.03 | 1.42 | ||
| 2051 | 15.02 | 13.23 | -1.79 | ---- | -1.52 | -0.04 | 1.48 | ||
| 2052 | 14.97 | 13.23 | -1.74 | ---- | -1.57 | -0.04 | 1.53 | ||
| 2053 | 14.93 | 13.23 | -1.70 | ---- | -1.61 | -0.04 | 1.57 | ||
| 2054 | 14.91 | 13.23 | -1.67 | ---- | -1.66 | -0.04 | 1.61 | ||
| 2055 | 14.90 | 13.23 | -1.66 | ---- | -1.69 | -0.04 | 1.65 | ||
| 2056 | 14.90 | 13.23 | -1.67 | ---- | -1.72 | -0.05 | 1.68 | ||
| 2057 | 14.91 | 13.23 | -1.67 | ---- | -1.76 | -0.05 | 1.71 | ||
| 2058 | 14.92 | 13.24 | -1.69 | ---- | -1.79 | -0.05 | 1.74 | ||
| 2059 | 14.94 | 13.24 | -1.70 | ---- | -1.82 | -0.05 | 1.77 | ||
| 2060 | 14.96 | 13.24 | -1.71 | ---- | -1.85 | -0.05 | 1.80 | ||
| 2061 | 14.98 | 13.24 | -1.73 | ---- | -1.88 | -0.06 | 1.83 | ||
| 2062 | 15.00 | 13.25 | -1.75 | ---- | -1.91 | -0.06 | 1.86 | ||
| 2063 | 15.01 | 13.25 | -1.76 | ---- | -1.95 | -0.06 | 1.89 | ||
| 2064 | 15.03 | 13.25 | -1.78 | ---- | -1.99 | -0.06 | 1.93 | ||
| 2065 | 15.04 | 13.25 | -1.79 | ---- | -2.03 | -0.06 | 1.96 | ||
| 2066 | 15.06 | 13.25 | -1.81 | ---- | -2.07 | -0.07 | 2.00 | ||
| 2067 | 15.07 | 13.25 | -1.82 | ---- | -2.11 | -0.07 | 2.04 | ||
| 2068 | 15.09 | 13.26 | -1.84 | ---- | -2.15 | -0.07 | 2.08 | ||
| 2069 | 15.12 | 13.26 | -1.86 | ---- | -2.19 | -0.07 | 2.11 | ||
| 2070 | 15.14 | 13.26 | -1.88 | ---- | -2.22 | -0.08 | 2.15 | ||
| 2071 | 15.16 | 13.26 | -1.90 | ---- | -2.26 | -0.08 | 2.18 | ||
| 2072 | 15.17 | 13.26 | -1.91 | ---- | -2.29 | -0.08 | 2.21 | ||
| 2073 | 15.19 | 13.26 | -1.92 | ---- | -2.33 | -0.08 | 2.25 | ||
| 2074 | 15.19 | 13.27 | -1.93 | ---- | -2.36 | -0.08 | 2.28 | ||
| 2075 | 15.20 | 13.27 | -1.93 | ---- | -2.39 | -0.09 | 2.30 | ||
| 2076 | 15.20 | 13.27 | -1.93 | ---- | -2.42 | -0.09 | 2.33 | ||
| 2077 | 15.18 | 13.27 | -1.91 | ---- | -2.44 | -0.09 | 2.36 | ||
| 2078 | 15.16 | 13.27 | -1.89 | ---- | -2.47 | -0.09 | 2.38 | ||
| 2079 | 15.12 | 13.27 | -1.85 | ---- | -2.50 | -0.09 | 2.41 | ||
| 2080 | 15.08 | 13.26 | -1.81 | ---- | -2.53 | -0.09 | 2.44 | ||
| 2081 | 15.03 | 13.26 | -1.77 | ---- | -2.56 | -0.09 | 2.47 | ||
| 2082 | 14.98 | 13.26 | -1.72 | ---- | -2.59 | -0.09 | 2.50 | ||
| 2083 | 14.94 | 13.26 | -1.68 | ---- | -2.61 | -0.09 | 2.52 | ||
| 2084 | 14.90 | 13.26 | -1.65 | ---- | -2.64 | -0.10 | 2.54 | ||
| 2085 | 14.88 | 13.25 | -1.63 | ---- | -2.65 | -0.10 | 2.55 | ||
| 2086 | 14.87 | 13.25 | -1.62 | ---- | -2.65 | -0.10 | 2.56 | ||
| 2087 | 14.87 | 13.25 | -1.62 | ---- | -2.66 | -0.10 | 2.57 | ||
| 2088 | 14.87 | 13.25 | -1.62 | ---- | -2.67 | -0.10 | 2.58 | ||
| 2089 | 14.88 | 13.25 | -1.63 | ---- | -2.69 | -0.10 | 2.59 | ||
| 2090 | 14.89 | 13.26 | -1.64 | ---- | -2.70 | -0.10 | 2.61 | ||
| 2091 | 14.91 | 13.26 | -1.65 | ---- | -2.73 | -0.10 | 2.63 | ||
| 2092 | 14.93 | 13.26 | -1.67 | ---- | -2.75 | -0.10 | 2.65 | ||
| 2093 | 14.96 | 13.26 | -1.70 | ---- | -2.76 | -0.10 | 2.66 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 15.28% | 13.81% | -1.48% | 2036 | -1.40% | -0.04% | 1.37% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.