Description of Proposed Provision:
E1.9: Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) by 0.1 percentage point each year from 2022-2045, until the rate reaches 14.8 percent in 2045. Then increase the payroll tax rate an additional 0.1 percentage point in each year from 2084-2088, until the rate reaches 15.3 percent for 2088 and later.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.12 | 12.89 | -1.23 | 256 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.27 | 12.92 | -1.35 | 239 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.44 | 13.04 | -1.40 | 223 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 | ||
| 2023 | 14.62 | 13.15 | -1.47 | 206 | -0.00 | 0.19 | 0.19 | ||
| 2024 | 14.80 | 13.27 | -1.53 | 190 | -0.00 | 0.28 | 0.28 | ||
| 2025 | 14.98 | 13.38 | -1.60 | 175 | -0.00 | 0.38 | 0.38 | ||
| 2026 | 15.16 | 13.60 | -1.55 | 160 | -0.00 | 0.47 | 0.47 | ||
| 2027 | 15.36 | 13.72 | -1.64 | 146 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||
| 2028 | 15.58 | 13.83 | -1.75 | 133 | -0.00 | 0.66 | 0.66 | ||
| 2029 | 15.79 | 13.94 | -1.85 | 120 | -0.00 | 0.76 | 0.76 | ||
| 2030 | 15.98 | 14.05 | -1.93 | 107 | -0.00 | 0.85 | 0.85 | ||
| 2031 | 16.16 | 14.16 | -2.00 | 95 | -0.00 | 0.95 | 0.95 | ||
| 2032 | 16.31 | 14.27 | -2.05 | 82 | -0.00 | 1.04 | 1.04 | ||
| 2033 | 16.45 | 14.37 | -2.08 | 70 | -0.00 | 1.13 | 1.14 | ||
| 2034 | 16.56 | 14.48 | -2.09 | 59 | -0.00 | 1.23 | 1.23 | ||
| 2035 | 16.65 | 14.58 | -2.07 | 47 | -0.00 | 1.32 | 1.33 | ||
| 2036 | 16.72 | 14.68 | -2.04 | 35 | -0.01 | 1.42 | 1.42 | ||
| 2037 | 16.78 | 14.78 | -2.00 | 23 | -0.01 | 1.51 | 1.52 | ||
| 2038 | 16.81 | 14.88 | -1.94 | 12 | -0.01 | 1.61 | 1.61 | ||
| 2039 | 16.82 | 14.97 | -1.85 | 1 | -0.01 | 1.70 | 1.71 | ||
| 2040 | 16.82 | 15.07 | -1.75 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.79 | 1.80 | ||
| 2041 | 16.80 | 15.16 | -1.64 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.89 | 1.90 | ||
| 2042 | 16.76 | 15.25 | -1.51 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.98 | 1.99 | ||
| 2043 | 16.72 | 15.35 | -1.38 | ---- | -0.01 | 2.08 | 2.09 | ||
| 2044 | 16.68 | 15.44 | -1.24 | ---- | -0.01 | 2.17 | 2.18 | ||
| 2045 | 16.65 | 15.53 | -1.11 | ---- | -0.01 | 2.26 | 2.28 | ||
| 2046 | 16.61 | 15.54 | -1.07 | ---- | -0.02 | 2.27 | 2.29 | ||
| 2047 | 16.58 | 15.54 | -1.05 | ---- | -0.02 | 2.27 | 2.29 | ||
| 2048 | 16.56 | 15.54 | -1.02 | ---- | -0.02 | 2.27 | 2.29 | ||
| 2049 | 16.54 | 15.54 | -1.00 | ---- | -0.02 | 2.27 | 2.29 | ||
| 2050 | 16.52 | 15.54 | -0.98 | ---- | -0.02 | 2.27 | 2.29 | ||
| 2051 | 16.51 | 15.54 | -0.97 | ---- | -0.02 | 2.27 | 2.29 | ||
| 2052 | 16.51 | 15.54 | -0.97 | ---- | -0.02 | 2.27 | 2.30 | ||
| 2053 | 16.52 | 15.54 | -0.97 | ---- | -0.03 | 2.27 | 2.30 | ||
| 2054 | 16.53 | 15.55 | -0.99 | ---- | -0.03 | 2.27 | 2.30 | ||
| 2055 | 16.56 | 15.55 | -1.01 | ---- | -0.03 | 2.27 | 2.30 | ||
| 2056 | 16.59 | 15.55 | -1.04 | ---- | -0.03 | 2.27 | 2.30 | ||
| 2057 | 16.63 | 15.56 | -1.08 | ---- | -0.03 | 2.27 | 2.31 | ||
| 2058 | 16.68 | 15.56 | -1.12 | ---- | -0.04 | 2.27 | 2.31 | ||
| 2059 | 16.72 | 15.57 | -1.16 | ---- | -0.04 | 2.27 | 2.31 | ||
| 2060 | 16.77 | 15.57 | -1.20 | ---- | -0.04 | 2.27 | 2.31 | ||
| 2061 | 16.82 | 15.57 | -1.24 | ---- | -0.04 | 2.28 | 2.32 | ||
| 2062 | 16.87 | 15.58 | -1.29 | ---- | -0.04 | 2.28 | 2.32 | ||
| 2063 | 16.92 | 15.58 | -1.33 | ---- | -0.05 | 2.28 | 2.32 | ||
| 2064 | 16.97 | 15.59 | -1.38 | ---- | -0.05 | 2.28 | 2.32 | ||
| 2065 | 17.02 | 15.59 | -1.43 | ---- | -0.05 | 2.28 | 2.33 | ||
| 2066 | 17.07 | 15.60 | -1.48 | ---- | -0.05 | 2.28 | 2.33 | ||
| 2067 | 17.13 | 15.60 | -1.53 | ---- | -0.05 | 2.28 | 2.33 | ||
| 2068 | 17.19 | 15.61 | -1.58 | ---- | -0.06 | 2.28 | 2.33 | ||
| 2069 | 17.25 | 15.61 | -1.64 | ---- | -0.06 | 2.28 | 2.34 | ||
| 2070 | 17.30 | 15.61 | -1.69 | ---- | -0.06 | 2.28 | 2.34 | ||
| 2071 | 17.36 | 15.62 | -1.74 | ---- | -0.06 | 2.28 | 2.34 | ||
| 2072 | 17.40 | 15.62 | -1.78 | ---- | -0.06 | 2.28 | 2.34 | ||
| 2073 | 17.45 | 15.63 | -1.82 | ---- | -0.07 | 2.28 | 2.35 | ||
| 2074 | 17.49 | 15.63 | -1.86 | ---- | -0.07 | 2.28 | 2.35 | ||
| 2075 | 17.52 | 15.63 | -1.88 | ---- | -0.07 | 2.28 | 2.35 | ||
| 2076 | 17.54 | 15.64 | -1.90 | ---- | -0.07 | 2.28 | 2.35 | ||
| 2077 | 17.55 | 15.64 | -1.91 | ---- | -0.07 | 2.28 | 2.35 | ||
| 2078 | 17.55 | 15.64 | -1.91 | ---- | -0.07 | 2.28 | 2.36 | ||
| 2079 | 17.54 | 15.64 | -1.90 | ---- | -0.07 | 2.28 | 2.36 | ||
| 2080 | 17.53 | 15.64 | -1.89 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.28 | 2.36 | ||
| 2081 | 17.51 | 15.64 | -1.87 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.28 | 2.36 | ||
| 2082 | 17.49 | 15.64 | -1.86 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.29 | 2.36 | ||
| 2083 | 17.48 | 15.64 | -1.84 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.29 | 2.36 | ||
| 2084 | 17.46 | 15.73 | -1.73 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.38 | 2.45 | ||
| 2085 | 17.45 | 15.82 | -1.63 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.47 | 2.55 | ||
| 2086 | 17.45 | 15.92 | -1.53 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.57 | 2.65 | ||
| 2087 | 17.45 | 16.01 | -1.44 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.66 | 2.74 | ||
| 2088 | 17.46 | 16.11 | -1.36 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.76 | 2.84 | ||
| 2089 | 17.49 | 16.11 | -1.37 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.76 | 2.84 | ||
| 2090 | 17.52 | 16.12 | -1.40 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.76 | 2.85 | ||
| 2091 | 17.55 | 16.12 | -1.43 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.76 | 2.85 | ||
| 2092 | 17.59 | 16.13 | -1.47 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.76 | 2.85 | ||
| 2093 | 17.64 | 16.13 | -1.51 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.77 | 2.85 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 16.65% | 15.58% | -1.08% | 2039 | -0.03% | 1.73% | 1.77% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
|||||||||
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.