Description of Proposed Provision:
E1.8: Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) by 0.1 percentage point each year from 2021-2026, until the rate reaches 13.0 percent for 2026 and later.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.12 | 12.89 | -1.23 | 256 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.27 | 13.01 | -1.26 | 239 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 | ||
| 2022 | 14.44 | 13.13 | -1.31 | 223 | -0.00 | 0.19 | 0.19 | ||
| 2023 | 14.62 | 13.25 | -1.37 | 207 | -0.00 | 0.28 | 0.28 | ||
| 2024 | 14.80 | 13.37 | -1.43 | 192 | -0.00 | 0.38 | 0.38 | ||
| 2025 | 14.98 | 13.48 | -1.50 | 177 | -0.00 | 0.47 | 0.47 | ||
| 2026 | 15.16 | 13.70 | -1.46 | 163 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||
| 2027 | 15.36 | 13.72 | -1.64 | 149 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||
| 2028 | 15.58 | 13.74 | -1.84 | 136 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||
| 2029 | 15.79 | 13.76 | -2.03 | 122 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||
| 2030 | 15.98 | 13.77 | -2.21 | 109 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||
| 2031 | 16.16 | 13.79 | -2.37 | 94 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||
| 2032 | 16.31 | 13.80 | -2.52 | 80 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||
| 2033 | 16.45 | 13.81 | -2.64 | 65 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||
| 2034 | 16.56 | 13.82 | -2.74 | 50 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2035 | 16.65 | 13.83 | -2.82 | 34 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2036 | 16.72 | 13.83 | -2.89 | 18 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2037 | 16.78 | 13.84 | -2.94 | 1 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2038 | 16.82 | 13.84 | -2.98 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2039 | 16.83 | 13.84 | -2.98 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2040 | 16.82 | 13.85 | -2.98 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2041 | 16.80 | 13.85 | -2.96 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2042 | 16.77 | 13.84 | -2.92 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2043 | 16.73 | 13.84 | -2.88 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2044 | 16.69 | 13.84 | -2.85 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2045 | 16.65 | 13.84 | -2.81 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2046 | 16.62 | 13.84 | -2.78 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2047 | 16.59 | 13.84 | -2.75 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2048 | 16.57 | 13.84 | -2.73 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2049 | 16.54 | 13.84 | -2.70 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2050 | 16.53 | 13.84 | -2.69 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2051 | 16.52 | 13.84 | -2.68 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2052 | 16.52 | 13.84 | -2.68 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2053 | 16.53 | 13.84 | -2.69 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2054 | 16.55 | 13.85 | -2.70 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2055 | 16.58 | 13.85 | -2.73 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2056 | 16.61 | 13.85 | -2.76 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2057 | 16.65 | 13.86 | -2.79 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2058 | 16.70 | 13.86 | -2.84 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2059 | 16.74 | 13.86 | -2.88 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2060 | 16.79 | 13.87 | -2.92 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2061 | 16.84 | 13.87 | -2.97 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2062 | 16.89 | 13.88 | -3.01 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2063 | 16.94 | 13.88 | -3.06 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2064 | 17.00 | 13.88 | -3.11 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2065 | 17.05 | 13.89 | -3.16 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2066 | 17.10 | 13.89 | -3.21 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2067 | 17.16 | 13.90 | -3.27 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.60 | ||
| 2068 | 17.22 | 13.90 | -3.32 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.60 | ||
| 2069 | 17.28 | 13.91 | -3.38 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.60 | ||
| 2070 | 17.34 | 13.91 | -3.43 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.60 | ||
| 2071 | 17.40 | 13.91 | -3.48 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.60 | ||
| 2072 | 17.45 | 13.92 | -3.53 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.60 | ||
| 2073 | 17.49 | 13.92 | -3.57 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.60 | ||
| 2074 | 17.53 | 13.92 | -3.61 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.60 | ||
| 2075 | 17.56 | 13.93 | -3.64 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.60 | ||
| 2076 | 17.59 | 13.93 | -3.66 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.60 | ||
| 2077 | 17.60 | 13.93 | -3.67 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2078 | 17.60 | 13.93 | -3.67 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2079 | 17.59 | 13.93 | -3.66 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2080 | 17.58 | 13.93 | -3.65 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2081 | 17.56 | 13.93 | -3.63 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2082 | 17.55 | 13.93 | -3.62 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2083 | 17.53 | 13.93 | -3.60 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2084 | 17.51 | 13.93 | -3.59 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2085 | 17.51 | 13.93 | -3.58 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2086 | 17.50 | 13.93 | -3.58 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2087 | 17.51 | 13.93 | -3.58 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2088 | 17.52 | 13.93 | -3.59 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2089 | 17.54 | 13.93 | -3.61 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2090 | 17.57 | 13.93 | -3.64 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2091 | 17.61 | 13.93 | -3.68 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2092 | 17.65 | 13.94 | -3.72 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2093 | 17.70 | 13.94 | -3.76 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 16.67% | 14.37% | -2.31% | 2037 | -0.01% | 0.52% | 0.54% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.