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Principal Demographic Assumptions

Historical Period Intermediate Assumptions Low Cost Assumptions High Cost Assumptions

Table V.A1.- Principal Demographic Assumptions
Calendar Years 1940-2085
Calendar year   Total
fertility
rate 1 		  Age-sex-adjusted death rate 2
per 100,000, by age:		   Net immigration
Total   Under 65   65 and over Legal 3   Other 4

Historical data:
1940   2.23   1,779.1   673.0   9,569.0   45,000  
1941   2.33   1,700.7   651.2   9,091.7   30,000  
1942   2.55   1,643.6   628.8   8,791.0   20,000  
1943   2.64   1,712.1   631.8   9,320.0   20,000  
1944   2.49   1,630.7   611.5   8,808.4   25,000  
1945   2.42   1,586.6   601.8   8,522.4   55,000  
1946   2.86   1,536.1   569.9   8,340.8   95,000  
1947   3.18   1,535.3   544.8   8,510.9   120,000  
1948   3.03   1,502.3   532.0   8,335.9   135,000  
1949   3.04   1,456.6   514.0   8,094.7   165,000  
1950   3.03   1,435.6   499.4   8,028.3   170,000  
1951   3.20   1,423.3   495.1   7,960.5   175,000  
1952   3.29   1,396.2   489.0   7,785.1   165,000  
1953   3.35   1,387.2   476.2   7,803.0   140,000  
1954   3.46   1,316.2   449.1   7,422.9   165,000  
1955   3.50   1,334.2   442.8   7,612.2   210,000  
1956   3.60   1,334.3   440.8   7,626.3   245,000  
1957   3.68   1,356.9   449.0   7,751.2   220,000  
1958   3.63   1,344.3   439.8   7,714.6   195,000  
1959   3.64   1,319.2   433.8   7,555.0   195,000  
1960   3.61   1,330.9   436.9   7,626.7   200,000  
1961   3.56   1,299.1   423.6   7,464.6   210,000  
1962   3.42   1,323.2   428.4   7,624.9   220,000  
1963   3.30   1,344.5   434.7   7,751.4   225,000  
1964   3.17   1,302.6   431.2   7,438.9   220,000  
1965   2.88   1,304.6   430.0   7,464.0   230,000  
1966   2.67   1,307.8   431.9   7,476.8   255,000  
1967   2.53   1,273.1   424.6   7,248.1   305,000  
1968   2.43   1,295.1   435.3   7,350.4   305,000  
1969   2.42   1,255.7   428.3   7,082.9   275,000  
1970   2.43   1,224.3   422.6   6,870.7   280,000  
1971   2.25   1,217.2   410.7   6,897.0   285,000  
1972   1.99   1,212.5   408.2   6,877.0   295,000  
1973   1.86   1,194.7   401.8   6,778.8   300,000  
1974   1.82   1,145.4   384.7   6,502.8   295,000  
1975   1.77   1,099.0   369.5   6,236.4   295,000  
1976   1.74   1,088.8   359.7   6,223.5   315,000  
1977   1.80   1,057.5   350.7   6,035.2   375,000  
1978   1.76   1,052.1   344.6   6,035.3   425,000  
1979   1.82   1,017.3   333.8   5,831.1   360,000  
1980   1.82   1,035.9   331.9   5,993.6   410,000   375,000
1981   1.80   1,007.2   323.2   5,823.9   445,000   375,000
1982   1.81   975.8   312.0   5,650.9   440,000   375,000
1983   1.78   987.7   306.9   5,782.6   415,000   375,000
1984   1.79   980.1   304.2   5,740.0   415,000   375,000
1985   1.84   984.2   303.6   5,777.6   435,000   375,000
1986   1.83   975.3   302.5   5,713.8   450,000   375,000
1987   1.86   983.5   299.6   5,799.9   460,000   375,000
1988   1.92   974.9   299.3   5,733.2   475,000   375,000
1989   2.00   948.8   294.9   5,553.9   465,000   375,000
1990   2.07   931.2   289.4   5,451.1   500,000   550,000
1991   2.06   918.8   286.2   5,373.5   550,000   550,000
1992   2.04   906.2   280.2   5,315.3   620,000   550,000
1993   2.02   928.0   283.1   5,470.0   645,000   550,000
1994   2.00   916.2   280.5   5,392.7   585,000   550,000
1995   1.98   913.9   277.3   5,397.5   575,000   550,000
1996   1.98   900.4   266.1   5,367.2   665,000   550,000
1997   1.97   885.1   253.6   5,332.5   570,000   550,000
1998   2.00   878.3   246.9   5,325.2   490,000   550,000
1999   2.01   884.3   245.0   5,386.6   520,000   550,000
2000   2.06   875.7   243.4   5,328.3   670,000   630,000
2001   2.03   867.3   243.5   5,260.7   795,000   500,000
2002   2.02   863.6   242.6   5,236.6   730,000   555,000
2003   2.05   851.4   241.2   5,148.2   575,000   685,000
2004   2.05   819.9   234.8   4,940.6   750,000   505,000
2005 5   2.05   835.8   230.6   5,098.4   870,000   445,000
2006 5   2.06   831.0   227.7   5,079.9   950,000   380,000
2007 5   2.06   826.5   224.9   5,062.9   900,000   375,000

Intermediate:
2008   2.06   822.2   222.2   5,047.4   865,000   390,000
2009   2.06   817.4   219.6   5,027.4   825,000   405,000
2010   2.06   812.2   217.1   5,003.5   750,000   445,000
2011   2.05   806.7   214.6   4,976.5   750,000   435,000
2012   2.05   800.8   212.1   4,947.0   750,000   430,000
2013   2.05   794.8   209.7   4,915.6   750,000   420,000
2014   2.05   788.7   207.3   4,882.8   750,000   415,000
2015   2.04   782.4   205.0   4,848.9   750,000   410,000
2016   2.04   776.0   202.6   4,814.1   750,000   400,000
2017   2.04   769.7   200.4   4,778.9   750,000   395,000
2018   2.04   763.3   198.1   4,743.3   750,000   390,000
2019   2.03   756.9   195.9   4,707.6   750,000   385,000
2020   2.03   750.5   193.7   4,671.8   750,000   380,000
2021   2.03   744.2   191.5   4,636.1   750,000   375,000
2022   2.03   737.9   189.4   4,600.6   750,000   370,000
2023   2.02   731.6   187.3   4,565.2   750,000   365,000
2024   2.02   725.5   185.2   4,530.2   750,000   360,000
2025   2.02   719.3   183.2   4,495.4   750,000   360,000
2026   2.02   713.3   181.1   4,461.0   750,000   355,000
2027   2.01   707.3   179.1   4,427.0   750,000   350,000
2028   2.01   701.4   177.2   4,393.3   750,000   345,000
2029   2.01   695.6   175.2   4,360.0   750,000   340,000
2030   2.01   689.8   173.3   4,327.1   750,000   335,000
2031   2.00   684.1   171.4   4,294.6   750,000   330,000
2032   2.00   678.4   169.6   4,262.3   750,000   330,000
2033   2.00   672.9   167.7   4,230.5   750,000   325,000
2034   2.00   667.4   165.9   4,199.1   750,000   320,000
2035   2.00   662.0   164.1   4,168.1   750,000   315,000
2036   2.00   656.6   162.3   4,137.5   750,000   315,000
2037   2.00   651.3   160.6   4,107.3   750,000   310,000
2038   2.00   646.1   158.9   4,077.5   750,000   305,000
2039   2.00   641.0   157.2   4,048.1   750,000   305,000
2040   2.00   635.9   155.5   4,019.1   750,000   300,000
2041   2.00   630.9   153.8   3,990.4   750,000   300,000
2042   2.00   625.9   152.2   3,962.1   750,000   295,000
2043   2.00   621.0   150.6   3,934.2   750,000   295,000
2044   2.00   616.2   149.0   3,906.7   750,000   295,000
2045   2.00   611.5   147.4   3,879.5   750,000   290,000
2046   2.00   606.8   145.9   3,852.6   750,000   290,000
2047   2.00   602.1   144.3   3,826.1   750,000   290,000
2048   2.00   597.5   142.8   3,799.9   750,000   285,000
2049   2.00   593.0   141.3   3,774.0   750,000   285,000
2050   2.00   588.6   139.9   3,748.4   750,000   285,000
2051   2.00   584.1   138.4   3,723.2   750,000   285,000
2052   2.00   579.8   137.0   3,698.3   750,000   280,000
2053   2.00   575.5   135.6   3,673.7   750,000   280,000
2054   2.00   571.2   134.2   3,649.3   750,000   280,000
2055   2.00   567.0   132.8   3,625.3   750,000   280,000
2056   2.00   562.9   131.4   3,601.6   750,000   280,000
2057   2.00   558.8   130.1   3,578.1   750,000   280,000
2058   2.00   554.8   128.7   3,555.0   750,000   280,000
2059   2.00   550.8   127.4   3,532.1   750,000   280,000
2060   2.00   546.8   126.1   3,509.5   750,000   280,000
2061   2.00   542.9   124.8   3,487.1   750,000   275,000
2062   2.00   539.0   123.6   3,465.0   750,000   275,000
2063   2.00   535.2   122.3   3,443.2   750,000   275,000
2064   2.00   531.5   121.1   3,421.6   750,000   275,000
2065   2.00   527.8   119.9   3,400.3   750,000   275,000
2066   2.00   524.1   118.7   3,379.2   750,000   275,000
2067   2.00   520.4   117.5   3,358.4   750,000   275,000
2068   2.00   516.9   116.3   3,337.8   750,000   275,000
2069   2.00   513.3   115.1   3,317.4   750,000   275,000
2070   2.00   509.8   114.0   3,297.3   750,000   275,000
2071   2.00   506.3   112.9   3,277.4   750,000   275,000
2072   2.00   502.9   111.7   3,257.7   750,000   275,000
2073   2.00   499.5   110.6   3,238.3   750,000   275,000
2074   2.00   496.2   109.5   3,219.0   750,000   275,000
2075   2.00   492.9   108.5   3,200.0   750,000   275,000
2076   2.00   489.6   107.4   3,181.2   750,000   275,000
2077   2.00   486.3   106.3   3,162.5   750,000   275,000
2078   2.00   483.1   105.3   3,144.1   750,000   275,000
2079   2.00   480.0   104.3   3,125.9   750,000   275,000
2080   2.00   476.8   103.2   3,107.9   750,000   275,000
2081   2.00   473.7   102.2   3,090.1   750,000   275,000
2082   2.00   470.7   101.2   3,072.5   750,000   275,000
2083   2.00   467.7   100.3   3,055.0   750,000   275,000
2084   2.00   464.7   99.3   3,037.8   750,000   275,000
2085   2.00   461.7   98.3   3,020.7   750,000   275,000

Low Cost:
2008   2.07   827.6   223.9   5,079.0   960,000   465,000
2009   2.08   828.0   222.9   5,089.3   960,000   555,000
2010   2.09   827.7   221.9   5,094.6   960,000   640,000
2011   2.10   827.0   220.8   5,095.8   960,000   620,000
2012   2.11   825.7   219.7   5,093.7   960,000   605,000
2013   2.12   824.2   218.6   5,088.7   960,000   590,000
2014   2.13   822.3   217.5   5,081.5   960,000   575,000
2015   2.14   820.2   216.4   5,072.6   960,000   560,000
2016   2.15   818.0   215.3   5,062.1   960,000   550,000
2017   2.16   815.6   214.2   5,050.6   960,000   540,000
2018   2.17   813.0   213.1   5,038.1   960,000   530,000
2019   2.18   810.4   212.0   5,024.9   960,000   520,000
2020   2.19   807.8   210.9   5,011.2   960,000   510,000
2021   2.20   805.0   209.8   4,997.1   960,000   505,000
2022   2.21   802.3   208.7   4,982.7   960,000   495,000
2023   2.21   799.5   207.6   4,968.1   960,000   485,000
2024   2.22   796.7   206.5   4,953.3   960,000   480,000
2025   2.23   793.9   205.5   4,938.4   960,000   475,000
2026   2.24   791.2   204.4   4,923.4   960,000   465,000
2027   2.25   788.4   203.3   4,908.4   960,000   460,000
2028   2.26   785.6   202.3   4,893.4   960,000   455,000
2029   2.27   782.8   201.3   4,878.4   960,000   450,000
2030   2.28   780.1   200.2   4,863.5   960,000   440,000
2031   2.29   777.3   199.2   4,848.6   960,000   435,000
2032   2.30   774.5   198.2   4,833.6   960,000   430,000
2033   2.30   771.8   197.2   4,818.7   960,000   425,000
2034   2.30   769.1   196.2   4,804.0   960,000   420,000
2035   2.30   766.4   195.2   4,789.3   960,000   415,000
2036   2.30   763.7   194.2   4,774.7   960,000   410,000
2037   2.30   761.1   193.2   4,760.3   960,000   405,000
2038   2.30   758.4   192.2   4,745.9   960,000   400,000
2039   2.30   755.8   191.3   4,731.6   960,000   395,000
2040   2.30   753.2   190.3   4,717.5   960,000   390,000
2041   2.30   750.6   189.4   4,703.4   960,000   385,000
2042   2.30   748.1   188.4   4,689.5   960,000   385,000
2043   2.30   745.5   187.5   4,675.6   960,000   380,000
2044   2.30   743.0   186.6   4,661.9   960,000   375,000
2045   2.30   740.5   185.6   4,648.2   960,000   375,000
2046   2.30   738.0   184.7   4,634.7   960,000   370,000
2047   2.30   735.6   183.8   4,621.2   960,000   370,000
2048   2.30   733.1   182.9   4,607.8   960,000   365,000
2049   2.30   730.7   182.0   4,594.6   960,000   365,000
2050   2.30   728.3   181.1   4,581.4   960,000   360,000
2051   2.30   725.9   180.3   4,568.3   960,000   360,000
2052   2.30   723.5   179.4   4,555.3   960,000   360,000
2053   2.30   721.1   178.5   4,542.4   960,000   355,000
2054   2.30   718.8   177.7   4,529.6   960,000   355,000
2055   2.30   716.5   176.8   4,516.9   960,000   355,000
2056   2.30   714.2   176.0   4,504.3   960,000   355,000
2057   2.30   711.9   175.1   4,491.7   960,000   350,000
2058   2.30   709.6   174.3   4,479.3   960,000   350,000
2059   2.30   707.3   173.5   4,466.9   960,000   350,000
2060   2.30   705.1   172.7   4,454.6   960,000   350,000
2061   2.30   702.8   171.8   4,442.4   960,000   350,000
2062   2.30   700.6   171.0   4,430.3   960,000   350,000
2063   2.30   698.4   170.2   4,418.3   960,000   350,000
2064   2.30   696.3   169.4   4,406.4   960,000   345,000
2065   2.30   694.1   168.7   4,394.5   960,000   345,000
2066   2.30   691.9   167.9   4,382.7   960,000   345,000
2067   2.30   689.8   167.1   4,371.0   960,000   345,000
2068   2.30   687.7   166.3   4,359.4   960,000   345,000
2069   2.30   685.6   165.6   4,347.9   960,000   345,000
2070   2.30   683.5   164.8   4,336.4   960,000   345,000
2071   2.30   681.4   164.0   4,325.0   960,000   345,000
2072   2.30   679.3   163.3   4,313.7   960,000   345,000
2073   2.30   677.3   162.5   4,302.5   960,000   345,000
2074   2.30   675.3   161.8   4,291.4   960,000   345,000
2075   2.30   673.2   161.1   4,280.3   960,000   345,000
2076   2.30   671.2   160.3   4,269.3   960,000   345,000
2077   2.30   669.3   159.6   4,258.4   960,000   345,000
2078   2.30   667.3   158.9   4,247.5   960,000   345,000
2079   2.30   665.3   158.2   4,236.8   960,000   345,000
2080   2.30   663.4   157.5   4,226.1   960,000   345,000
2081   2.30   661.4   156.8   4,215.4   960,000   345,000
2082   2.30   659.5   156.1   4,204.9   960,000   345,000
2083   2.30   657.6   155.4   4,194.4   960,000   345,000
2084   2.30   655.7   154.7   4,184.0   960,000   345,000
2085   2.30   653.8   154.0   4,173.6   960,000   345,000

High Cost:
2008   2.05   816.8   220.5   5,015.8   770,000   315,000
2009   2.03   806.9   216.4   4,965.5   700,000   260,000
2010   2.02   796.8   212.5   4,912.4   630,000   205,000
2011   2.01   786.7   208.7   4,857.1   560,000   255,000
2012   1.99   776.4   205.0   4,800.3   560,000   255,000
2013   1.98   766.1   201.5   4,742.3   560,000   255,000
2014   1.96   755.7   198.0   4,683.5   560,000   255,000
2015   1.95   745.4   194.6   4,624.4   560,000   255,000
2016   1.93   735.2   191.4   4,565.2   560,000   255,000
2017   1.92   725.0   188.2   4,506.1   560,000   255,000
2018   1.90   715.0   185.0   4,447.3   560,000   255,000
2019   1.89   705.0   181.9   4,389.0   560,000   250,000
2020   1.87   695.2   178.9   4,331.3   560,000   250,000
2021   1.86   685.6   176.0   4,274.2   560,000   250,000
2022   1.85   676.0   173.1   4,217.8   560,000   250,000
2023   1.83   666.6   170.3   4,162.2   560,000   245,000
2024   1.82   657.4   167.5   4,107.4   560,000   245,000
2025   1.80   648.3   164.8   4,053.5   560,000   245,000
2026   1.79   639.3   162.1   4,000.4   560,000   240,000
2027   1.77   630.5   159.5   3,948.1   560,000   240,000
2028   1.76   621.9   156.9   3,896.7   560,000   235,000
2029   1.74   613.4   154.4   3,846.2   560,000   235,000
2030   1.73   605.1   151.9   3,796.5   560,000   230,000
2031   1.71   596.9   149.5   3,747.6   560,000   230,000
2032   1.70   588.8   147.1   3,699.4   560,000   225,000
2033   1.70   580.9   144.8   3,652.1   560,000   225,000
2034   1.70   573.1   142.5   3,605.7   560,000   225,000
2035   1.70   565.4   140.2   3,560.0   560,000   220,000
2036   1.70   557.9   138.0   3,515.2   560,000   220,000
2037   1.70   550.5   135.8   3,471.1   560,000   215,000
2038   1.70   543.3   133.7   3,427.8   560,000   215,000
2039   1.70   536.2   131.6   3,385.2   560,000   215,000
2040   1.70   529.2   129.6   3,343.4   560,000   215,000
2041   1.70   522.3   127.5   3,302.3   560,000   210,000
2042   1.70   515.5   125.6   3,261.9   560,000   210,000
2043   1.70   508.9   123.6   3,222.3   560,000   210,000
2044   1.70   502.4   121.7   3,183.2   560,000   210,000
2045   1.70   496.0   119.8   3,144.9   560,000   210,000
2046   1.70   489.7   118.0   3,107.2   560,000   210,000
2047   1.70   483.5   116.2   3,070.1   560,000   210,000
2048   1.70   477.4   114.4   3,033.7   560,000   210,000
2049   1.70   471.4   112.7   2,997.9   560,000   210,000
2050   1.70   465.5   110.9   2,962.6   560,000   205,000
2051   1.70   459.7   109.3   2,928.0   560,000   205,000
2052   1.70   454.1   107.6   2,893.9   560,000   205,000
2053   1.70   448.5   106.0   2,860.4   560,000   205,000
2054   1.70   443.0   104.4   2,827.5   560,000   205,000
2055   1.70   437.6   102.8   2,795.1   560,000   205,000
2056   1.70   432.3   101.3   2,763.2   560,000   205,000
2057   1.70   427.0   99.8   2,731.9   560,000   210,000
2058   1.70   421.9   98.3   2,701.0   560,000   210,000
2059   1.70   416.8   96.8   2,670.7   560,000   210,000
2060   1.70   411.9   95.4   2,640.8   560,000   210,000
2061   1.70   407.0   94.0   2,611.5   560,000   210,000
2062   1.70   402.2   92.6   2,582.6   560,000   210,000
2063   1.70   397.4   91.2   2,554.1   560,000   210,000
2064   1.70   392.8   89.9   2,526.2   560,000   210,000
2065   1.70   388.2   88.5   2,498.6   560,000   210,000
2066   1.70   383.7   87.2   2,471.5   560,000   210,000
2067   1.70   379.3   86.0   2,444.9   560,000   210,000
2068   1.70   374.9   84.7   2,418.6   560,000   210,000
2069   1.70   370.6   83.5   2,392.8   560,000   210,000
2070   1.70   366.4   82.3   2,367.3   560,000   210,000
2071   1.70   362.2   81.1   2,342.3   560,000   210,000
2072   1.70   358.1   79.9   2,317.6   560,000   210,000
2073   1.70   354.1   78.7   2,293.3   560,000   210,000
2074   1.70   350.1   77.6   2,269.4   560,000   210,000
2075   1.70   346.2   76.5   2,245.9   560,000   210,000
2076   1.70   342.4   75.4   2,222.7   560,000   210,000
2077   1.70   338.6   74.3   2,199.9   560,000   210,000
2078   1.70   334.9   73.3   2,177.4   560,000   210,000
2079   1.70   331.2   72.2   2,155.2   560,000   210,000
2080   1.70   327.6   71.2   2,133.4   560,000   210,000
2081   1.70   324.0   70.2   2,111.9   560,000   210,000
2082   1.70   320.5   69.2   2,090.8   560,000   210,000
2083   1.70   317.1   68.2   2,069.9   560,000   210,000
2084   1.70   313.7   67.2   2,049.4   560,000   210,000
2085   1.70   310.4   66.3   2,029.1   560,000   210,000
1 The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children who would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience the birth rates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period. The ultimate total fertility rate is assumed to be reached in 2032.
2 The age-sex-adjusted death rate is the crude rate that would occur in the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2000, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.
3 Historical estimates of net legal immigration assume a 25 percent reduction in legal immigration due to legal emigration. Estimates do not include persons legalized under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.
4 Net other annual immigration is estimated to have averaged 375,000 persons over the period 1980-89 and 550,000 over the period 1990-99.
5 Estimated.
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